He stressed that demand for oil in developed countries will begin to decline as early as 2023, but remains the most important source of energy for several more decades.
For this reason, according to the economist, the West will once again have to ask OPEC countries and Russia to increase oil production.
“To check, they will agree to do it not with beautiful eyes, then not only the energy, but also the political dependence of the USA and the European Union (EU) on Russia and OPEC countries will increase.
The current natural gas crisis is a good illustration of what can be expected later in the oil market as well, ”stressed J. Maurice.
According to him, at present, natural gas prices want an all-time EU record, and the EU is not very responsive to calls to increase the supply of natural gas. “And why should I? After all, it benefits when natural gas prices are high, ”the economist explained.
“It is often said that there is no harm in what goes wrong, because high oil and gas prices can accelerate the ‘green revolution’. The idea itself is to be welcomed and inevitable because of the threats of global warming, but transport needs to be pushed rather than pushed, ie demand for fossil fuels must be reduced first, not supply.
However, the paradox is that in the face of rapidly rising prices, countries often make short-sighted and populist decisions (including Lithuania) to subsidize the purchase of oil or natural gas, for example, Lithuania plans to mitigate gas price growth increasing rather than lowering their gates (countries should look at green energy, not natural gas), as it sends a signal to the population that if losses “, wrote Ž.Mauricas.
The economist also saw the second cognitive dissonance. According to him, EU countries, especially in Southern Europe, offer gas consumption by subsidizing their prices, although at the same time talking about promoting the use of green energy. According to Maurice, this strategy will not end in good terms.
The diesel-gate scandal, which was theoretically characterized by a reduction in car pollution, although in practice it did not decrease much, especially for diesel cars, was one of the failures of energy policy. And the point is that you will not squeeze the wax out of some desired browner-than-earth substances, then only the instructions of technology, not bureaucrats, can help achieve a breakthrough in the field of energy, ”said J. Maurice.