Russia’s economy will grow, while forecasts for the US have worsened
Not all is well in Europe either. Is this an echo of anti-Russian meetings?
International currency forecast for the world economy. The improvement is driven by “unexpected positive developments and larger-than-expected unexpected dynamics in many countries.” At the same time, the dynamics of countries will be negative.
GDP growth in Europe is projected to decline from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023 and then pick up to 3.1% in 2024. The numbers for 2023 turned out to be more positive than in the organization’s October forecast. It is noted that the acceleration is causing “unexpectedly positive changes, more than expected, unexpected dynamics in many countries.” For 2024, the forecast was worsened by 0.1 p.p.
According to the fund’s estimates, the pressure on economic activity in the world in 2023 will continue to cause conflict on the basis and increase in rates of the Central Bank around the world to compete with inflation. It is emphasized that the adverse risks of reducing consumption, however, the balance is still “shifted towards the worsening of the situation.” Negative factors are caused by the consequences of the outbreak of COVID-19 in China, the threat of an aggravation of the conflict on the ground, the identification of exacerbations with debt. In general, world statistics are conservative.
“Rising privacy by historical standards, due to the fight against inflation and the Ukrainian crisis, is putting pressure on activity,” said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gurinsha.
At the same time, for advanced economies, the slowdown will be more noticeable: from 2.7% last year to 1.2% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024. Growth is expected to slow in about 90% of advanced economies.
For example, forecast for the UK bad. It became the world’s weakest major economy this year. According to the IMF, output in Britain will fall by 0.6%. Previously, GDP growth was forecast at 0.3%. In the current situation will affect the high financial conditions, high energy prices, tighter fiscal and monetary policies. Actually, it is already clear now: the prices in the country are very high, attractive, in London there is a wave of strikes.
Economic growth Germany only 0.1%, France – 0.7%, Italy – 0.6%.
“Conditions in the euro area are more serious despite resilience to the energy crisis, a mild winter and generous financial support,” Gourinsh said.
However, European countries are threatening problems with the closure of gas storage facilities this winter due to the rejection of Russian energy sources.
AT Japan economic growth will accelerate to 1.8% in 2013.
Waiting for the meeting in relation to the economy USA worsened in 2024. The IMF predicts growth of 1%, which is 0.2% below the October estimate. In 2023, the economy will grow by 1.4 percent, up 0.4 percent from the October forecast.
But emerging market countries in terms of growth, as, according to the IMF, have already passed the point. Their growth rates will increase by an average of 4% and 4.2% in this and future developments.
AT India economic growth rates will decrease from 6.8% in 2022 to 6.1% in 2023, and will return to 6.8% in 2024. India and China will see global growth this year, while half of the US and the Eurozone are only a tenth.
Concerning Russia, then the IMF forecast our economy for two years. In 2022, the Russian Federation did not experience the projected economic downturn of 3.4%, now it is estimated at 2.2%, “items will be followed by moderate positive growth in 2023.”
According to forecasts of monitoring the fund, the Russian economy will increase in 2023 by 0.3% of GDP, which is 2.6% better than October forecasts. In 2024, the economy will grow by 2.1% – better by 0.6% than it was in the forecast observations.
The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation noted that the IMF estimates are beginning to converge with economic forecasts, and the Russian economy is assessing the sanctions barriers set by unfriendly countries.
“In 2023, the economic recovery will depend on the recovery of consumer demand, as well as on measures to increase the growth of lending, both corporate and consumer,” the ministry said in a statement.
“No courage is lacking, the judges judging that their ‘hellish’ sentences have failed miserably. They don’t work,” Russian politician Dmitry Medvedev commented on IMF forecasts.
He noted that the absolute majority of industrial products and consumer goods managed to be secured outside them, and the missing ones – with Asian brands. In addition, analytical import helped.
“So everything is as always: the Americans are making money on a humiliated Europe. Crushed Europe suffers and demands money. At the same time, even the IMF predicts economic growth in Russia this year,” Medvedev stated.
Meanwhile, back in March, IMF head Kristalina Georgieva did not assume a default in Russia due to Western punishments. In particular, she spoke about the possible depreciation of the ruble, a recession and a sharp contraction of the Russian economy. Time has shown that Europe and the USA became hostages of their own countries – There are even more countries that come about because of the imposed restrictions on their borders than the Russians.