Belarus is ahead of Russia in terms of attracted resources – OfficeLife
Suspension of investment activities with the closure of the three-year project implementation period in the first half of the year and ensuring the stable operation of mutual foreign investments in the Ministry of Health of the CIS and Georgia – these are the results of 2022 and the forecast for the medium term, announced in report
Eurasian Development Bank “Monitoring of EDB Mutual Investments – 2022”. We looked at where Belarus invests and who invests in our country.
One individual “minused” $ 1 billion of investments
The specific share of Belarus in the total volume of accumulated exported investments decreased from 4% in 2020 to 1.8% by mid-2022, from $1.79 billion to $820 million.
What happened? This is due to the fact that the Belarusian businessman Dmitry Lobyak (Yuras Oil) in 2021, after five years, will widely be a shareholder of Uralkali. This is due to the limitation of the volume of foreign direct investment (FDI) of Belarus in Russia in the amount of an 18.5% package – more than 1.1 billion US dollars.
Nevertheless, even after a sharp minus, Belarus retains its overall fourth place as an FDI exporter. A large amount of investment in Russia is $601 million. Of the latest specific projects identified in EDB reports, Amkodor investments in Russia and Uzbekistan are mentioned.
Exported FDI stock in the CIS and Georgia in the first half of 2022
No. |
Exporting country |
Exported FDI in 2020, $ billion |
Exported FDI in the first half of 2022, in $ billion |
1 |
Russia |
35.76 |
35.39 |
2 |
Kazakhstan |
3.96 |
4.26 |
3 |
Azerbaijan |
3.02 |
3.75 |
four |
Belarus |
1.79 |
0.82 |
five |
Georgia |
0.21 |
0.23 |
According to MVI EDB
Russia remains the main investor in the industry. The share and volume of investments due to possible consequences for business in Ukraine (Sberbank and Alfa-Bank) and curtailment of projects due to the use of secondary assets in some countries (Alfa-Bank in Kazakhstan, VTB and Rosneft in Georgia), but not critical. The share increased from 79.7% to 79.2%, the volume of investments – from $35.76 to $35.39 billion. The key areas of Russian investment are Kazakhstan ($10,688 billion), Uzbekistan ($8,802 billion) and Belarus ( $5,385 billion).
The second investor in the industry is Kazakhstan, whose share by mid-2022 increased to 9.5% ($4.26 billion) compared to 8.8% in 2020 ($3.96 billion). The largest Kazakh projects are being implemented in Russia (the amount of investments is $3,035 billion).
The third is Azerbaijan, which has demonstrated a high positive trend in the growth of FDI exports. Its share in the total mass increased from 6.7 to 8.4% over 1.5 years, and in money terms – from $3.02 to $3.75 billion. Georgia was the priority country of destination for Switzerland (1.68 billion dollars) and Ukraine (1,605 billion dollars).
Belarus is ahead of Russia in terms of attracted resources
In exceptional cases, FDI imports are perhaps the most interesting developments. Here’s what the picture looks like in numbers.
Imported FDI stock in the CIS and Georgia in the first half of 2022
No. |
Importing country |
Imported FDI in 2020, $ billion |
Imported FDI in the first half of 2022, in $ billion |
1 |
Kazakhstan |
11.26 |
10.84 |
2 |
Uzbekistan |
8.93 |
8.96 |
3 |
Belarus |
5.42 |
5.61 |
four |
Azerbaijan |
2.76 |
4.23 |
five |
Russia |
4.59 |
3.91 |
According to MVI EDB
Russia, which has lost multibillion-dollar investments from Western countries, continues to lose investments from the CIS countries. In 2018, it ranked third in terms of Belarus’ mutual FDI stock, and by mid-2022, Azerbaijan was also ahead. Its share from 10.2% in 2020 was up to 8.8% by the middle by 2022, and the volume of attracted resources from the countries of the region – from $4.59 to $3.91 billion.
Belarus has been holding the third outlet since 2018. Over the past 1.5 years, its share in imported investments has grown from 12.1% to 12.6%, in money – from $5.42 to $5.61 billion. At the same time, $1.25 billion is Gazprom’s investment in the pipeline Gazprom Transgaz Belarus. This is the second volume project on the accumulation of resources in the EDB database.
The first and second place in attracting FDI are located, respectively, in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The first share also increased volumes. If in 2020 its weight in imported resources was 25.1%, the amount amounted to 11.26 billion US dollars, then in the first half of last year these figures were 24.3% and 10.84 billion US dollars.
In Uzbekistan, they have not changed much over 1.5 years – 19.9% and $8.93 billion in 2020 and 20.1% and $8.96 billion in the first half of 2022.
A noticeable breakthrough, mainly due to Russian investments in the fuel sector, captured by Azerbaijan. Its share in FDI imports rose from 6.1% and $2.76 billion to 9.5% and $4.23 billion.
What’s next?
At the end of 2020, the amount of export FDI is $44.88 billion. In 2021, it was registered up to $44.3 billion. However, almost by mid-2022, the figure returned to the level of 2020, reaching $44.6 billion. The closure of about 30 projects was compensated ” Lukoil in Azerbaijan and new investments of Kazakh business in Russia.
Nevertheless, according to EDB experts, in the medium term, the region will see a slowdown in the growth of accumulation of mutual investments (possibility, decrease) “due to the uncertainty of increasing and increasing the volume.”
In exceptional cases, investments in new projects will increase (an additional incentive may be the relocation of Russian production, including in the EAEU and CIS countries) and the number of projects will be increased, depending on large natural investments. Private companies will be ordered against the background of a possible decrease in the activity of state-owned companies.
The EDB analyst believes that due to the support of large projects and the forced reorientation in the Eurasian region, one should expect an increase in the investment activity of Russian companies, primarily in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Belarus and Armenia. The role of the incidence in China, Iran and the Arab world, the CIS countries will also increase, which may increase the response to the markets.