Will Erdogan dare to provoke a major crisis with Greece to postpone the elections he seems to be losing in Turkey?
Turkey’s Islamist president Tayyip Erdogan with officials and members of his party. Photo Turkish Presidency
Written by LAZAROS KAMPOURIDIS**
Tayyip Erdogan’s inability to improve his ratings in view of the May 14th elections, it seems that it leads the Turkish-Islamic duo AKR (Justice and Development Party) – MİP (National Action Party) to an impasse, with the result that Turkey is not excluded to do what can affect not only itself. and our country.
The result of the impasse in which Turkey was led by the short-lived REFAH-YOL government of the Islamist Erbakan and the right-wing conservative Ciller {1996-1997), was its overthrow in the “velvet” coup of February 28, 1997, fearing that the country is being driven to extreme Islamism.
After the Etcevit-Bakhceli government [DSP (Κόμμα Δημοκρατικής Αριστεράς) – MHΡ] followed by the rise to power of the AKP / Erdogan causing a new stalemate and the reaction of the military who were defeated after a decade of internal conflicts after the neo-Ottomanists with the support of Gülen prevailed through the revelation of a series of scandals, mainly the “ERG” cases. “HAMMER CHILDREN”.
The revelation of the latest case shows how the 2 main rival ideologies in Turkey do not hesitate to instrumentalize and even use external fronts to prevail in the internal conflicts both times have “fight to the finish” characteristics.
It is noted that, in 2003, the military elite planned to get out of the deadlock and get rid of Erdogan’s “company” through a Greek-Turkish military confrontation by causing a small war lasting 3 days in Evros and the Aegean with provocations and the downing of a Turkish F-1. fire, energy which would be charged to Greece.
Erdogan’s impasse
For the first time, his party and Erdogan himself have reached such low percentages. It is also unprecedented for Turkey that the electorate in the neighborhood does not respond as it should to the promises of financial benefits.
Although Erdoğan has proceeded to an unprecedented provision in social and above all economic terms, he has realized that the new generation aged 18-30 is very angry with the AKP government, since now the Social Media have changed their morals and priorities . of society.
Also very disappointed with Erdoğan is a liberal part of Turkish society which “leaned” its dreams on the AKP for a new modern Turkey which would “marry” Turkish traditions with Western currents and ideas, which respected minorities and it would promote the issues of democratic ideas and human rights.
Everything turned upside down after Erdogan, after the July 15 coup attempt, allied himself with the extreme nationalists – exponents of Turkey’s Eurasian orientation, with the result that the AKP – MHP alliance is now at a pre-election impasse.
Moreover, even the choice of the time of the elections has a pre-election expediency, since the exploitation of the religious sentiment of the voters is attempted, as the Ramadan period (March 22 – April 20) is a very good opportunity for Erdogan shortly before the crucial elections to and the paper of the sensitive Islamist leader, sending messages not only to the religious Turk but also to the religious Kurdish Muslims.
The pre-election pressured Erdoğan who has realized that the possibility of his first electoral defeat is now serious, as the game of “Cautiously Neutral” between the West and Russia is not yielding as much as he would like the desired by the USA, the economic promises they do not immediately bear fruit.
And finally, the inability to get electoral results from the Syrian promises (return of Syrian refugees to their country), now touches on the idea of ”playing the card” which can yield immediate results, i.e. a possible instrumentalization of the tension with Greece in combination with an artificial state of chaos within Turkey, exploiting nationalist reflexes in order to rally voters.
Already in an article last August, we mentioned the possible provocation of a state of chaos in Turkey by Erdogan himself, after the columnist who became him talked about the possibility of a new coup.
Erdogan, in this most critical election of his career, will use all possibilities to maintain the presidential seat.
A controlled mini-crisis with Greece combined with an artificial state of chaos inside Turkey could be useful “tools” in Erdogan’s hands to polarize and win over the conservative electorate or even postpone the elections (Articles 78 and 119 of Turkish Constitution).
Our country, which is already appearing from Ankara as the attacking side, can be used by the current expression of Turkish-Islamism (AKP-MIR), the impasse that Turkey is being led to in the face of Erdogan’s elections, even if defeated, has no purpose. to relinquish power. We remind you that Ankara has recently “exalted” with particular diligence and persistence the argument of a defending Turkey against Athens which “shows aggressive dispositions”.
** Lieutenant General e.a. Lazaros Kambouridis is a graduate of the School of National Defense, holds an MBA from Nottingham Trend University, a Graduate of the Department of History & Ethnology of the University of Athens, and a PhD candidate at Panteion University, while he was a member of the Greek Diplomatic Mission in Istanbul in the period 1995-1999 Anamolou, Embassy in Ankara in the period 2013-2017. Demobilized in March / 2022.
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