Turkey frustrates Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO bid
HELSINKI — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s stubborn opposition to Sweden’s application for NATO membership has thwarted hopes in Stockholm and Helsinki that Ankara will give its approval before the parliamentary elections in Turkey is planned for May 14.
The already tense diplomatic relations between Turkey and Sweden were further strained on January 21 when the Danish politician Rasmus Paludan, burned a copy of the Koran in front of the Turkish embassy in Stockholm. A picture of Erdoğan was also “hung” during the protest by Kurdish separatists.
Turkey wants Finland and Sweden to implement all aspects of the trilateral memorandum (TR) signed by the three countries in June 2022. The TR requires the Nordic candidate countries to take tougher measures against representatives of terrorist groups, including the PKK, in their countries.
In addition, Turkey is demanding that Sweden and Finland end their “arms embargo” against Turkey, making this a condition of Ankara’s support for their NATO membership.
Finland and Sweden have no official bans on the export of military equipment to Turkey, but neither country has issued export licenses since Turkey launched a ground attack offensive against Syrian Kurds in southeastern Syria in 2019.
The leader of Denmark’s far-right Hard Line party, Paludan, came to the attention of Danish and Swedish authorities in April 2022 when he revealed plans for a “Quran-burning tour” in Sweden and Denmark during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
Paludan initially abandoned the plan after warnings of possible arrest by authorities in Sweden and Denmark.
Turkey responded angrily to the burning of the Koran in Stockholm, accusing the Swedish government of compliance by failing to stop the anti-Islam protest led by Kurdish activists. Turkish President Erdoğan warned Stockholm that Sweden “should no longer count on Turkey’s support for its bid to join NATO.”
The growing concern over Turkey’s negative position on Sweden’s NATO membership has resulted in a deepening of the cross-border talks between Stockholm and Helsinki. The two Nordic non-aligned states had planned to “jump together” into the alliance. The escalated tensions between Turkey and Sweden endanger that ambition.
Finland holds more regular talks with Sweden to resolve the problems in the accession process. The most recent talks since January 26 have involved meetings between Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto.
“Finland and Sweden still agree that, regardless of all current objections and obstacles, we will continue our joint journey into NATO. We plan to work on joint measures to ratify our membership and join at the same time. In light of the events in Stockholm, I honestly do not think we will see any significant progress in that ratification before the elections in Turkey in May, says Haavisto.
Sweden and Finland are now hoping, based on the results of Turkey’s elections in May, that both countries can get Turkey’s support to ratify membership ahead of the NATO summit scheduled for Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11.
Sweden and Finland remain optimistic that they will receive membership approval from Hungary in February or March. Hungary and Turkey are the two NATO member states that have not yet ratified the accession bids of the two Nordic countries.
Turkey’s strong opposition to Sweden’s NATO application, while the country is still more open to Finnish membership, has raised concerns that Ankara may be playing politics with a sensitive defense issue.
Erdoğan’s open hostility towards Sweden could be aimed at gaining more influence in NATO and with the US, said Aras Lindh, a researcher in the Middle East and North Africa at the Swedish Foreign Policy Institute.
“The possibility that Erdoğan’s words constitute a tactical statement cannot be ignored. It could be an attempt to drive a wedge between Sweden and Finland, or a response to the US, says Lindh.
With Turkey rejecting Sweden’s membership application, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s government could face the stark prospect of having to abandon its candidacy for NATO, a development that would isolate it from all other Nordic states in the alliance and help potentially weaken the traditional and long-standing alliance . -Nordic defense cooperation.
Finland’s and Sweden’s accession to NATO will take longer than expected, says Paul Levin, director of Stockholm University’s Institute for Turkish Studies.
“Relations between Sweden and Turkey have been fraught with tension for some time. The same applies to Turkey’s relations with Finland. But this latest development and the undertone of statements by the Turkish president have sharpened considerably. The rift will take time to heal,” Levin said.
The mood in Helsinki, which closely monitors diplomatic interactions between Stockholm and Ankara, remains cautiously optimistic that progress can be made to advance the status of Finland’s and Sweden’s applications with Turkey’s support.
Finland’s president, Sauli Niinistö, told a press conference in Helsinki on January 27 that “serious discussions” are needed with Erdoğan’s government to restore trust between the three countries while prioritizing the implementation of all parts of the TR before the NATO summit in July .
“There needs to be serious one-on-one discussions with President Erdoğan. Right now it’s starting to look very much like the Turkish presidential election will take precedence and not much will happen before then,” Niinistö said.
Turkey’s more favorable view of Finland’s NATO application is supported by a number of important recent events. Finland’s Ministry of Defense granted new export permits for defense equipment to Turkey in mid-January 2023, enabling the transport of reinforced steel from the Brahestad-based company Miilux Oy.
In 2021, the MoD rejected an export license application by Miilux to export steel for use in the manufacture of armored vehicles in Turkey. Seventy percent of Miilux shares are owned by the Turkish pension fund OYAK. The MoD is currently engaged in adopting new measures to facilitate the export of military kit to Turkey
Gerard O’Dwyer is Scandinavian affairs correspondent for Defense News.