The 100-day thriller with Ankara – Athens expects escalation of challenges until Turkish elections | sections, policy
Government officials estimate that, as long as Turkish aggression remains in the red, the risk of an accident lurks. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has decided to respond to every threat of Erdogan.
One hundred dangerous days until the May 14 elections in Turkey, the Greek government. THE Recep Tayyip Erdogan he is unpredictable and is not in a difficult position inside his country. Therefore, Athens remains alert.
Government officials say the tension, particularly at the verbal level, will continue and may escalate as Turkey heads to the polls, and that Erdogan will step up the provocations if he sees that as an electoral boost. In fact, they estimate that the escalation of tension may not directly gain electoral results, but this tactic helps him restrain his voters, who do not question his anti-Greek and anti-Western rhetoric, and see Greece as an advanced outpost of the West. which consults Turkey, believe that Greek armaments are directed against them, and believe that Greece is equipping the islands to attack Turkey.
This climate is reflected in the provocative statements of Turkish officials as well as of Erdogan himself, who, after threatening to hit Athens with missiles and that “night will come”, has now mobilized the “yurusia” as well. However, it is also reflected in the provocative announcement of the National Security Council of Turkey, which leaves our country for provocative actions and an increase in armaments: “No fait accompli that targets the national security and interests of Turkey will be tolerated”, it is stated in relevant announcement.
Nevertheless, the government does not believe that Erdogan is planning any aggressive action against our country or is planning a hot episode. As they say, the international situation is not in his favor, Western public opinion is turning against him and Greece is today in a much stronger position to face such situations than it was a year ago.
In any case, however, government officials estimate that, as long as the tension remains in the red and challenges continue in the air and at sea, the risk of an accident lurks. The same executives emphasize that such a development could lead to an escalation of the field with unpredictable consequences.
In the Maximus Palace, they carefully monitor her rhetorical intensity from the other side, without however being particularly worried. What they find is that the Turkish President does not “come” with any initiative in foreign affairs. Even in Libya, where Turkey maintains a strong position and exerts influence on the government in Tripoli, the scene appears to be rearranging itself after the CIA chief’s visit to that country. William Burns and the effort he initiated so that there would be an understanding between the government of Tripoli and him Haftar. Athens welcomes the more active involvement of the US in Libya, as this has the effect of limiting Turkish influence.
The issue of Libya and the issues of maritime zones in the eastern Mediterranean and Greek hydrocarbon research, as well as that of Turkish provocation, to be on the agenda of the meeting of the foreign minister. Nikos Dendias with its American counterpart Anthony Blinken in Athens on February 21. The Turks are already worried about this meeting. Their analysts, in fact, argue that the American, whom they attribute to working for the interests of Exxon Mobil, will give the “green light” to Athens for the extension of our territorial waters of Crete to 12 miles. And here the threat of Turkish intervention in the field is raised – not in any case from official sources.
In any case, however, the prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis he is determined – and unites the parliamentarians elections in Greece – not to leave any challenge of the Turkish President unanswered. The prime minister mentioned during his tour in Crete about the “crazy Turks who will do yurusi” saying: “As far as all those who preach that they may come one night suddenly know that one night they may suddenly wake up and approach the harsh reality and let them learn that every yurusi they invoke can be turned into a disorderly retreat back to its starting point.”
In fact, the prime minister spoke about the same issue during his visit to the Greek Air Force, where he meaningfully referred to the programs to strengthen our Air Force, which has become powerful over the Aegean.
Bearing in mind that recently the violations on the part of the Turks are increasing, Kyriakos Mitsotakis warned Ankara that it may wake up one night and land on the harsh reality. “The more they raise their voices, the more they will actually reduce their credibility. And each of their jurisprudence can become a disorderly retreat in front of the triangle of International Law, our prosperous Armed Forces and strong alliances”, said the prime minister and added that “our country does not open a dialogue with the absurd”.
The opposition is still being sought
Although Erdogan faces foreign policy problems, minority parties are unable to agree on a common presidential candidate
Against the background of the elections, the first round of the “locked” for May 14, the Recep Tayyip Erdogan is running into an “American wall” on F-16s, as the clouds over Turkish-American relations thicken even more due to his refusal to give the “green light” to Sweden’s NATO membership.
Political analysts in Turkey estimate that Erdogan is now trying to make another move by trying to disconnect the F-16s from the NATO issue.
This change does not seem to convince Washington where, according to Turkish analysts, the opinion has now crystallized that the US is not taking any steps on the issues plaguing its relations with Turkey before the elections. The American government seems to have decided not to take the risk of making any move that would be considered a “gift” to Erdogan, and this considers the outcome of the election to be uncertain, as the same people estimate.
Relations have further deteriorated in recent days over the former US secretary of state’s book Mike Pompeowhich refers to various discussions and consultations with Turkey in not particularly flattering terms, but also in Greece.
Both o Mevlut Cavusoglu as well as Ibrahim Kalin launched a scathing attack on M. Pompeo, with the Turkish Foreign Minister declaring that Pompeo is lying and claiming that he supported the 2016 coup attempt.
However, problems also arise in Turkish-German relations, a “symptom” of which is considered the sudden postponement of Erdogan’s meeting with the chancellor. Olaf Solz, which was originally scheduled for last Friday in Berlin. The reason was the disagreements between the advisers of the two men about the program of the Turkish President.
However, the climate between the two countries was tense after the Turkish ambassador was summoned to the German Foreign Ministry on the occasion of the statements of an AKP parliamentarian in Berlin against the PKK and the Gülen network, which were described as a “threat to the internal security” of Germany. In addition, Berlin feared that Erdogan used the meeting for pre-election purposes as well, while in Germany politicians from outside the EU have been banned since 2017 – because of Erdogan. to meet with their constituents living in Germany.
However, the growing external problems do not directly affect the electoral dynamics in Turkey, as the citizens’ attention has started to turn to domestic issues. One of the issues dominating the country’s agenda is the ferment within the six opposition parties for the nomination of a common candidate. The impossibility of the six parties to agree on a common candidate, the completely conflicting results of polls and the attitude of the Kurds, who decided with their own candidate, nullifying the prospective elections of Prior from the first round, have plunged the political into the fog.
The uncertainty is also intensified by the opinion polls, some of which show the AKP in second place, while others do not record that the party is above 40%.
However, one of the most reputable polling companies, TEAM, recorded in its latest survey that AKP is at 37.5%, CHP at 26%, IYY at 11.7%, MHP at 6.5% and the HDP at 11.1%. The main conclusions of the surveys are that both the CHP and the YII are weakening and that some of the voters who drifted away from the AKP are now undecided or are returning, while the probability of the People’s Alliance (AKP+MHP) winning a majority in the National Assembly has strengthened. .
Meanwhile, the announcement of the common candidate of the six seems to keep getting postponed.
According to the pro-government Abdulkadir Selvi of “Hurriyet”, the six parties will announce their common candidate in March, while opposition circles are talking sibylically about February.
Different interests
His comment is indicative of the climate cultivated by the government Mahmut Obur of the pro-government “Sabah”, which argues that one of the reasons for the inability of the six parties to come to an agreement is that they serve different interests and refer to foreign powers, but also to the PKK and the Gulen network.
At the same time, tensions seem to prevail within the parties, with the pro-government media reporting that the Ekrem Imamoglou will be drafted with Meral Aksener to be this candidate, while there seems to be internal strife within the CHP, with the pro-government press writing that because of this strife it will be very difficult for the CHP to prevail in Istanbul in the elections. However, the recent laudatory references to Kemal Kilicdaroglu by the mayor of Ankara Mansour Javas are interpreted as the latter’s withdrawal from the presidential “race”, bringing the CHP leader even further ahead of speculation as a common candidate.