pros and cons in the EL PERIÓDICO survey four months after the elections in Barcelona
The pre-election survey of Barcelona by the Gabinet d’Estudis Socials i Opinió Pública (GESOP) for EL PERIÓDICO outlines a very even scenario for four months for the municipal elections of the May 28. The vote estimate leaves four parties in a range of only three councilorswhich keeps all of them with options for victory at the polls.
Together leads the race by a narrow margin over the PSCand a little behind are located Barcelona in Com Y CKD. The poll, carried out from January 23 to 25, reflects that the four main candidates have strengths and weaknesses that anticipate a very close competition and that can tip the balance towards any of them.
The survey reveals the earthquake that Junts’ commitment to the former mayor of Barcelona has caused on the electoral board. Not only does he lead the mayoral preferences and rank highly among his own voters, but he also ranks well among the electorate as a whole. Trias manages to unite his electorate more than his rivals and attracts voters from other parties, especially the ERC, but not only.
The current mayoress is, together with Trias, the other candidate who obtains the majority support of her electorate, which allows her to be in second position in preferences for the mayoralty. But her biggest obstacle is the rejection she generates among the voters of the rest of the formations. In fact, of the four main mayors, she is the one who gets the worst grade and the only one who only approves among her own voters.
The ERC mayor is the most cross-sectional candidate, approving among his own electorate, but also among voters for Junts, Barcelona en Comú and the PSC. But that does not allow him to maintain his vote fidelity or stop the flight to JxCat of 25% of those who voted for him in the 2019 municipal elections. This bleeding makes him the great victim of the irruption of Trias in the electoral race.
Of the four main candidates, the PSC is the one with the least notoriety and the only one with less support in preferences for mayor than his party in direct intention to vote. In any case, he benefits from the vigor of the socialist brand, which shows the ability to attract voters from other non-independence forces, both on the left and on the right. That makes him, right now, Junts’ main rival in the fight for victory.
Junts and Barcelona en Comú are the only parties with a more mobilized electorate to this day, but the final results drew from the ability of the PSC and ERC to activate their voters. Four months from now, the GESOP detects an important disorientation among citizens on who has more chances of victory and a percentage of undecided still very high, above 26%.