Will it get colder, rain and snow in Portugal?
January started with unusually high temperatures for the time of yearproving to be an extension of the situation lived in Portugal throughout practically the entire year of 2022. In addition, episodes of heavy rain and flooding have returnedwith emphasis on the Minho, Tras-os-Montes and municipality of porto. However, to coincide with the change of fortnight, the polar jet began to undulate and this caused the polar and arctic air masses to hit our country incisively.
finally snowfall with some significant inclusion (two/three day short episode) in the North and Center mountains, more rain in generous, ice and frost, cold weather, strong wind and even strong maritime obligation. It took a while to arrive, but finally we can talk about a genuinely winter weather. Was it punctual and will the mild weather return, or when replacing the cold air intakes will they continue to appear in February as well?
February climatological characteristics
The month of February is characterized by changes caused by the weather, which can occur in a matter of hours.. Climatologically, it is the second coldest month of the year in much of the country (only surpassed by January). The temperature is, on average, 0.5°C higher than in January and besides, the day begins to gain ground on the night.
Frost is usually persistent and sometimes locally intense in mountainous areaswith some regions in the interior North and Center of Portugal registering minimum temperatures equal to or below 0ºC, sometimes with values just above this limit.
The days get longer and the daytime temperature has a greater margin to rise. However, February nights are usually very cold. in much of the mainland.
On the other hand, although the average maximum temperature for february on the scale of our continental geography is located in the 11.8ºC taking into account the reference climatological normal (1971-2000), most NUTS II Regions (Metropolitan Area of LisbonAlentejo and algarve) from mainland Portugal presents, for February, an average value of maximum temperature up to 2 ºC higher than the above mentioned value.
Does it usually rain a lot in February in Portugal?
February is famous for its incredible meteorological variability, being, in terms of rainfall, the fourth rainiest month of the year (117.2 mm) taking into account the entire territory of mainland Portugal. It ranks just behind the months of December, January and November with regard to the accumulated average variable. However, the above-mentioned rainfall does not reflect the huge regional contrast between the different Portuguese Climate Zones that usually occurs throughout the months of February.
If on the one hand February is normally a very rainy month in the North of the country (virtually 180mm accumulated), – especially on the Atlantic slope west of the Condensation Barrier – as well as in the Center (131.8 mm), especially at points in the Regions of Aveiro, Viseu Dão-Lafões and Beiras and Serra da Estrela; on the other hand, the remaining NUTS II regions of the country show values considerably lower than the average.
For a February, the most normal pattern is guided by the dominance of the zonal flowdespite the fact that, in certain years, the firstundulations or dips at altitude of the time (they come off the jet). Nor are they to be ruled out cold air inlets, likely to cause large waves of cold, like the one in February 1956.
February 2023: what to expect from the temperature?
For now, the forecast we handle in the Meteored suggests that the temperature, during the first days of February, registers values between 1 and 3 ºC lower than the climatological average for this time of year from the north to the south of mainland Portugal, with the negative thermal anomaly being more pronounced, roughly speaking, in the following districts: Bragançawestern part of Coimbra, leiriaLisbon, Setubal, santarem and drink.
From February 6, the temperature is expected to normalize throughout the country, except on the Lisbon coast. This thermal situation, with thermal values potentially within the pattern, may remain until the end of the month. Even so, it should be noted the possibility of temperature values 1 ºC lower than usual until the week of February 13th to 20th in the Atlantic strip that partially or completely covers the districts of Coimbra, Leiria, Lisbon, Santarém, Setúbal and Beja. In short, for now, no cold wave situation is anticipated, but unusual heat has advanced.
To the Azores and to Wood temperature forecasts are generally within normal range. The most likely could be the week of February 13th to 20th in the Azores (negative thermal anomaly, i.e. colder than normal); and the week of February 20th to 27th in Madeira (warmer than usual).
As far as atmospheric action centers are concerned, the first looks insist that, throughout the first half of February, the highs were sustained around our geography. However, possibly from the middle of the month – around the beginning of the second fortnight – the anticyclone could solidify its presence in Scandinavia and Central Europe (possibility of generating a blockade), which would open the way to other types of meteorological events in our latitudes.
For the end of February, taking into account a huge temporal distance, the meteorological scenario is still too undefined so that we can offer you a forecast with some consistency.
And what about rain and snow, what could happen?
After very rainy months, and even marked by snowfall (crucial for groundwater) – especially in the last week, practically the whole country saw the meteorological drought disappeargiven the substantial hydration and nutrition of agricultural soils, supplying reservoirs, dams and reservoirs, among other benefits of rainwater and snowmelt. The first five days of February will be considerably drier than normal across the country.
Despite the official near-disappearance of meteorological drought in mainland Portugal, there are several territories in the Alentejo and Algarve that still lack a lot of water. In the week of February 6th to 13th, a normalization of precipitation values is expected for the geographical area north of Montejunto-Estrela, but as if that were not enough, to the south of this landform and especially to the south of the Tagus – where the Alentejo and the Algarve are located – a negative precipitation anomaly is expected again, which will follow the trend of the first week of February 2023.
However, our most reliable model forecasts a second fortnight with normal temperature values throughout our continental geography, between February 13th and 28th, thanks to this possible anticyclonic blockade that could occur in the middle of the month. In the Azores and Madeira, a drier than normal first fortnight is expected, with a possible second half of February recording rainfall values within the standard.