In recent days, it has grown in size lack of fuel snaking queues were visible at Hungarian wells and near filling stations all over the country. The Mol earlier about it informedhe sees the effects of panic buying, but stated that he cannot import more fuel from abroad because of the price cap.

In view of the crisis situation that has developed in recent days, the Hungarian government leads out the HUF 480 price cap for Hungarian wells – on Tuesday evening Gergely Gulyás Minister in charge of the Prime Minister’s Office and Zsolt Hernádi, President and CEO of Mol.

The Pénzcentrum asked four experts what Hungary can expect now in terms of inflation, whether completely will prices run wild. According to Ottó Grád, Secretary General of the Hungarian Mineral Oil Association, action can be taken, but the supply difficulties will not be resolved immediately, just as it is difficult to predict when the domestic situation will stabilize.

It is very difficult to say, but it is certain that, temporarily, not yet normal market effects will appear at domestic gas stations, after all this time there will definitely be a need for some »breathing«, and then the market price will finally set in.

explained the in a circle to his question.

It is necessary to rebuild imports and the old smoothness of the supply – motorists are used to the fact that if there is something on the international oil market, they do not feel it so much, since there was always enough reserve at home to ensure that the domestic supply was uninterrupted, but this there is no reserve now. At first, we will import the gasoline that is available in the surrounding country

he added. According to the general secretary’s opinion, the increase in the price of gasoline will definitely be reflected in the prices, even if we will not see the effect immediately. Dávid Németh, K&H analyst, believes that even though the government has just officially ended the price cappart of the market price has already reared its head a in economy.

The analyst dates this time to when the government decided in the summer that company cars they cannot refuel at the official price. According to Dávid Németh the market gasoline price will already show signs of inflation before the end of the year.

Since since the end of the summer, company cars are no longer allowed to refuel at official prices, so gasoline sold at market prices has already entered the economy, the exact amount is another question. However, the two most excluded groups are the taxi drivers and agricultural workers, so it is certain that price increases should be expected in this segment, as gasoline has suddenly become more expensive compared to the market price.

– he explained, adding that even though the inflationary pressure appears at the end of the year, it will still be felt in the following year. Like Dávid Németh, ING’s senior analyst Péter Virovácz puts the price increase at two percent. However, he believes that there is a real chance that the market will return to normal in a few months.

I expect from the end of the price stop that a small independent wells they are also pulling themselves together, and the imported gasoline is also coming, but it will definitely take some time for the complete reorganization to take place. It is very difficult to predict the inflationary pressure and the rate of increase with great accuracy, that it will affect the prices, but there is no doubt that the price of gasoline will change continuously. I think the value will be around two percent, with which inflation will be “pushed” by the introduction of the gasoline price cap, but I rather expect that this will be more apparent from the January data. It is important to know that the KSH collects the data until the twentieth day of each month, and then after processing this, we get the inflation rate at the beginning of the following month: since the stop on gasoline prices ended on the sixth, people fill up with market-priced gasoline for only two weeks in December, i.e. in the December statistics it will make it even more expensive, how much more expensive the petrol available again at the market price has made our lives

– said Péter Virovácz, ING’s senior analyst. However, according to Zoltán Török, Raiffeisen’s chief analyst, the price increase will be even greater than what has been experienced so far. Of course, this cannot be caused only by the abolition of the petrol price cap, because a lot can depend on the rest as well.

Up until now, I had expected a price increase of 23 percent, but now that the gasoline price cap has been removed, I think we should prepare for the 26 percent figure for the month of December. Of course, it does not depend only on this: for example, I trust that the agreement will be reached this year about new money, and obviously a lot depends on the exchange rate of the euro against the forint. Overall, of course, it can be said that we will certainly feel the abolition of the gasoline price cap in everyday prices as well

said the analyst. All four interviewed experts agreed that the time had come the abolition of the price ceiling. Just as the opinions also agreed that sooner or later this should be done in relation to all price-fixed foods.

The government first Recorded from November 15, 2021 initially for three months, according to the situation at the time until February 15, since then it has already changed the date of the end of the price cap for fuels four times. The most recent provision of this government was in September, the effect of the fuel price freeze until December 31 valid.

The Index is the derivation of the petrol price stop first and second also follows the events live, gathering the most important information and happenings. Have you been able to get fuel in Budapest or in the countryside since the end of the gas price freeze? Share your story with us, we look forward to your experiences related to the refueling misery in writing.

(Cover photo: Tamás Huber / Index)