In the current situation, it is actually worth it for everyone to transport oil via the Barátság pipeline, which – if there are no further political changes or other physical obstacles, such as an attack on the pipeline – will last at least until 2025

– Tamás Pletser, Erste’s gas and oil industry analyst, told Portfolio. According to the specialist’s information, the leading Polish and Czech oil companies (Unipetrol and PKN Orlen) have long-term contracts regarding pipeline transport, which cannot be terminated unless there is an EU embargo on these deliveries, the arrival of energy products is understandably in the interest of for Czechs and the for Poles there is

Meanwhile, on the northern branch a to two German refineries (Schwedt and Leuna) also need time for the transition, because they are designed to process Russian energy products (just like Mol’s Danube refinery), so until the transition, the Germans also have an interest in the smooth continuation of the flow on the Friendship pipeline. And it is logical that it is for Russians it is also in their interest to maintain line deliveries, the role of which can be greatly appreciated after the introduction of the EU price ceiling for maritime deliveries and after the part of the sixth Russian sanctions package decided in June that no one can import Russian crude oil has been sharpened in the EU to the EU.

Nevertheless significant geopolitical risk remains associated with the matterduring the war, the Russians bombed the energy infrastructure in Ukraine, however, according to Pletser, it is important to point out that the Ukrainians they asked for an increase in the price of transports on Barátság and at the same time they are surprisingly quickly eliminating the problems caused by the power bombings, because the operation of the pipeline system is also of utmost importance to them.

All things considered, in the current situation, it seems that

everyone is working to ensure that transport on the Friendship Line works,

according to the specialist this will continue for at least another 2-3 years, basically, a marked change in motivations will come when the German refineries succeed in converting to the processing of non-Russian oil products and thus quasi it will not be in Germany’s interest for the oil to come from Friendship.

Going a little further, the natural gas highlighted in terms of Hungary’s supply is a specialist with significant energy risks: the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is possible through Croatia, and the trend is also important that in the future deliveries to Mol’s refineries may shift more and more towards the Adria pipeline for political and security of supply reasons because of These two circumstances mean that

in the future, Croatia will play a key role in the Hungarian energy supply and in successfully weaning ourselves from Russian energy,

therefore, it would be worthwhile to create the best possible solution between the two governments, Pletser believed.

Pletser or oil about the $60 Russian ceiling for Focus yesterday he statedthat this measure may even have a positive effect on Hungary in the interim, as the supply of Russian crude oil will increase greatly, as there will be fewer opportunities for the Russians to sell this crude oil, therefore it is possible that the price of sales to us will decrease. Therefore, we can even be the winners of this series of measures – predicted the economist. program, if the sanctions have the effect that, in addition to the increase in the world market oil price (Brent), the quotation of the Russian Ural falls, then by definition the Brent-Ural spread may also widen, from which the oil companies that still have access to Russian crude oil benefit, such as Mol in Hungary.

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