Sweden is getting into NATO’s footsteps by helping Ukraine, increasing the budget
HALIFAX, Nova Scotia — Days after Sweden announced its largest military aid package to date for Ukraineits senior defense officials position the Nordic country’s contribution as an example of what to expect from Stockholm as a NATO member.
Increasing aid from man-portable anti-tank weapons to powerful anti-aircraft systems was just the latest in a series of whiplash-inducing changes for Sweden following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. After 200 years of non-alignment, Sweden is now a NATO aspirant, prompting a rapid rewrite of its defense strategy and – from its new centre-right government – a big defense budget lift.
Sweden’s newly appointed defense minister, Pål Jonson, started with aid to Ukraine after ticking off his top priorities for Defense News on the sidelines of the Halifax International Security Forum last month. Days earlier, the government announced a package worth $287 million that was bigger than all previous aid combined.
“First priority: to increase economic, military, political and humanitarian support to Ukraine, including the transfer of more advanced weapons systems,” Jonson said on November 19. He added that the latest package included “anti-aircraft and winter equipment – because that’s what the Ukrainians need.”
The supreme commander of the Swedish military, gen. Micael Bydénin a separate interview, pointed to the political consensus to support the new aid package.
“All sovereign countries have to be able to defend ourselves, and I would argue that there is a greater understanding of taking more national risk and making sure that the Ukrainians have what they need,” Bydén said.
Jonson said the next priority is to become a NATO member “as soon as possible”, with Stockholm “eager” to contribute to NATO’s collective defense through the alliance’s enhanced forward presence arrangements along the eastern border, air police or standing naval forces.
Sweden, together with a non-aligned Nordic nation Finlandare currently awaiting unanimous consent from NATO members to join the alliance, a process that could reach its end in 2023 despite reservations about their applications from Hungary and Turkey.
The new administration, meanwhile, has set a course under its civil-military “Total Defense” plans to increase the defense budget by $800 million by 2023, backed by higher investments in cyber defense, signals intelligence, defense readiness and the expanded intake of cyber defense. military personnel. The goal is to increase defense spending by 40% by 2025 and continue to increase, Jonson said.
Stockholm wants NATO’s allies to know that they plan to bear their weight. Sweden’s new government has accelerated the target for defense spending to reach 2% of gross domestic product from 2026 to 2028 – as Germany and others have pledged to take similar measures.
“Just because we’re joining NATO doesn’t mean we can in any way reduce the pace of our own defense investment,” Jonson said.
In recent days, top defense officials in Europe have said that arms shortages among Ukraine’s Western allies are forcing difficult conversation on how to balance support for Ukraine with concerns that Russia might target them next, and how much equipment the defense industry can quickly produce.
Jonson said pressure to support Ukraine and increased defense spending from Sweden and other Western countries had put “quite a lot of pressure” on the defense industrial base, and it had to rise to the occasion. “It is important to increase industrial production to keep pace with these expectations,” Jonson said.
Front of mind for Johnson is a government finding in May that Sweden must not only think in terms of industrial capacity but reliable supply. The idea is to fix capabilities that lag behind Europe’s post-Cold War underinvestment in defense.
“We all need to step up and get better burden sharing across the Atlantic,” Jonson said. “The export was very important for [Sweden’s] industrial base outside Europe, but now demand will increase within Europe.”
Jonson said Sweden’s robust defense industry, which already has “strong and viable transatlantic links” is yet another way to improve NATO.
“For a fairly small country, we have quite a vibrant defense industrial base,” he said. “There is no other country with 10 million that can produce submarines, surface combatants, advanced artillery systems, combat vehicles and fighter jets.”
RELATED
For Bydén, it is a challenge that almost all western countries ensure that the defense industry increases in order to meet their defense needs at the same time.
– If you end up too far down the line, you won’t get what you need, you won’t get any deliveries, said Bydén. “We are in close dialogue with the defense industry, where the needs are greater than the capacity to scale up – if we continue as we have been doing.”
The Swedish defense industry needs to make a “mental readjustment” as it is asked to quickly replenish weapons stocks sent to Ukraine, he said.
In the rush to ramp up production, there is the dilemma of who goes first — industry, by building new manufacturing capacity, or governments, by firing up their military procurement machines, Bydén said. “I wouldn’t point fingers here because we have challenges just to make sure we do our part, and the industry has its.”
For Jonson, the war highlights the importance of civilian resilience, troop morale and training – but also the role of counter-drone capabilities, space-based intelligence and reconnaissance satellites, rocket artillery and long- and medium-range cruise missiles.
About a year after Sweden became the first non-NATO partner to acquire the Patriot missile system, Bydén last month visited Fort Sill, Oklahoma. It is home to the US Army fire school and where Swedish troops trained to use the Raytheon-made system.
Bydén said the Patriot fulfills a requirement in Sweden’s new plans, but there is a gap for a long-range precision strike capability. He said the gap could one day be filled by a multiple-launch rocket system like the Lockheed-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) — or even a strike-capable fighter jet.
While the military would typically hold a competition to meet that need, Bydén said a discussion with political leaders was ongoing, and the ability to move quickly was a priority.
“It’s a discussion now, what is the capacity and what are our requirements, and then we find the system,” he said.
With Moscow’s land forces tied up in Ukraine, Sweden sees more of a diplomatic, economic, political, information and cyber threat to be ready for. “They still have an air force that, if not fully intact, they can use; they have maritime forces, but we don’t see Russian conventional forces around our border in a way that we’re worried about, says Bydén.
As Sweden prepares for NATO membership, Bydén argued that Sweden has done “the bulk of the work over the years” in integrating with NATO, as a close partner after cooperation in Afghanistan and Libya, and through many joint exercises.
“We know each other at command level down to soldiers and sailors. They know what we are capable of and we know the requirements, he said.
One major change comes in the form of integrated operational planning, and another will be the inclusion of 200 Swedish personnel in dedicated NATO roles – a significant number for Sweden’s force.
“They won’t happen on the first day, but we have to prove and show that we mean business,” Bydén said.
Adding Finland and Sweden to the alliance essentially turns the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake, and Bydén called the two countries “the missing pieces of the puzzle”. He said Sweden also brings modern thinking and equipment, as well as knowledge of cold weather combat.
“We will from day one be a net contributor when it comes to military capabilities,” he said. “It is not that Sweden will provide volume, but we will bring quality and we are a modern force.”
Bydén said Sweden’s relative independence for so many years and well-developed civilian total defense concepts means it has something to teach other countries in the area of NATO’s Article 3, which requires civilian resilience and preparedness.
– This is a part where we can also contribute with our knowledge of a strong defense, total defense – civil and military defense in combination, he said. “Look at Ukraine right now. Russia is not only fighting a military force that is strong, but they are fighting an entire country where the will to defend [is] huge.”
Still, Bydén said he felt the Swedish mindset, after two centuries of non-alignment, will have to adapt to absorb what it means to be in NATO.
“We will be a country that needs to understand that in difficult times we will be secured and defended by the alliance – but we also expect to defend the alliance at any given hour or time,” Bydén said. “We’re not there, and this is a mental transition for the entire country that we need to work on with more proactive information, education.”
Despite concerns that rising energy costs will hurt European support for Ukraine, Jonson said he was pleased to see strong support in Sweden, and he predicted it would continue.
“I know there is a degree of fatigue in some other countries, but I feel there is both political and public support to increase aid to Ukraine,” he said. “It’s a lot of speed, and it’s great.”
Similarly, Bydén said he expects more decisions from Stockholm to help Ukraine.
“What we are talking about at home is that we have to bear the consequences of the war being fought in Ukraine,” Bydén said. “Everything that’s happening right now, whether it’s economic, energy, we just have to put up with. Those consequences will always be less tough than ending up in a war.”
Joe Gould is the Pentagon reporter for Defense News, covering the intersection of national security policy, politics and the defense industry. He has previously been a congressional reporter.