The embargo on Russian oil that has entered into force will not affect Bulgaria, since we can import Russian oil for another 2 years, but there is another big risk – the Russian oil price ceiling imposed by the West. The restriction may stop the supply of Russian oil to our country, warned the chairman of the Bulgarian Oil and Gas Association Zivodar Terziev in a comment for Expert.bg.

The imposition of a ceiling price on Russian oil (the so-called price ceiling) by the lower union is a very risky move and could completely block the import of Russian oil in our country, since the Russian authorities announced that they will stop the amount for the countries that maintain the restriction. “We will find ourselves in a situation where we have a derogation and we can use oil, but there is no one who will not give this oil. Such are the signals from Moscow,” said the head of BPGA.

If Russia stops exporting oil to Bulgaria, this will certainly block the work of Lukoil Neftohim Burgas. The refinery will lose its main raw material (Russian almost oil), and it is impossible to replace it in the short term. Our country will have 3 to 6 months to find oil from another place, which should be at a good price. Will “Lukoil Neftohim Burgas” really stop working without Russian oil?

The refinery in Russia can certainly process other types of oil produced abroad, but the efficiency will not be as high. The reason is that in 3-4 years the last combine is set up to process Russian oil, the expert believes. Can Bulgaria do without Russian oil?

If we decide to import non-Russian oil, it will certainly be more expensive, which will also make the fuels produced from it more expensive.

The diesel problem

The big question is where we will import diesel fuels, which, unlike gasoline, are quite scarce on the world market. In the world, less and less diesel is produced, its consumption is constantly increasing. “The problem is with diesel and it will put not only Bulgaria at risk, but also the entire region,” Terziev is categorical. Europe is on the brink of a diesel crisis. What next?

If Russia stops supplying oil to Bulgaria, we will be forced to import diesel fuels from neighboring Turkey, Greece, etc., which, however, will cost us much more than those produced in our country.

Turkish refineries will continue to supply through Georgia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and through the Black Sea with Russian oil, process it and not sell final products with already absorbed added value, at your high prices, instead of sending tankers of non-Russian oil through the Bosphorus about Our Refinery, says the head of BPGA.

In Bulgaria, we will no longer receive cargoes of oil, but smaller deliveries of fuels, but there will be no profit of its own, nor jobs. Then we will become totally dependent on the favor of our neighbors. Non-Russian oil will be much more difficult to deliver here than the finished products, but they will be at a high price, warns Zivodar Terziev.

The shortage of diesel will most seriously affect the transport industry – railway carriers and road carriers. Apart from the Bulgarian ones, a large part of the foreign means of transport that pass through Bulgaria also fill up their tanks here, as the prices in our country are the lowest in Europe. Farmers, who are big consumers of diesel, will also suffer, according to the expert. If your car is diesel, you’ll soon be paying more

If there are disturbances in the production of the refinery in Burgas, which lead to reduced quantities of diesel for the domestic market, this will seriously raise the price of diesel fuel. “We will probably be able to find diesel, but its prices will go up as long as you have the supply and demand balance,” Terziev said. Romania, Serbia and Greece cannot sell diesel fuels, but in limited quantities and at high prices, he pointed out.

The problem with importing fuel from the country is not only the price, but also the logistics. Thousands more train and car tanks, numerous tank parks, warehouses and pipelines, which Bulgaria does not have, would be needed, and would be quite expensive. “Logistics is a major problem. Even if a product is found, it may very well and with difficulty reach the Bulgarian market,” said the head of the BPGA.

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