ZNPP may leave Russia – what is known, what kind of deal could be, a guarantee from Ukraine
Troops out?
The other day, the Russian publication Meduza, citing sources close to the Kremlin and the Russian government, reported on the possibility of delivering Moscow troops from the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant under certain conditions. In particular, control over a machine tool occupied since the beginning of a full-scale war can be transferred either to the IAEA in exchange for guarantees.
Allegedly, the Russian authorities hope to bargain for a permanent transit of oil and gas through the territory under the European embargo on marine supplies, which will come into force on December 5. According to the interlocutors, today there is readiness for a deal.
“Pumping and selling oil and gas is very important for the state budget,” Meduza’s detailed source.
dispersion, the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline passes through the territory of Ukraine, through which Russian oil enters Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Poland. In total, this pipeline now accounts for a third of all opportunities in Europe.
Photo: Russia may withdraw from ZNPP in exchange for a guarantee (GettyImages)
According to the President of NNEGC “Energoatom” Petr Kotin, Today there are indications that in prisons. According to him, the impression is that the occupiers are already on their suitcases and “steal everything they can find.”
Nevertheless, the situation at the nuclear power plant itself cannot in any way be a catastrophe for the possible departure of military and qualified specialists. For example, a new “guideline” was presented at the end of November, and the construction of power lines in the occupied Crimeato be parked away from the Ukrainian energy system.
Officially in the Kremlin reject preparations for recruiting troops.
“There is no need to look for some signs where they are not and cannot be,” Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov commented on the rumors.
According to Oleksandr Musiyenko, head of the Ukrainian Center for Military Legal Studies, in the theory of linking the demilitarization of nuclear power plants to energy guarantees, this is still a positive signal. In particular, here in Ukraine he sees great benefits for himself. de facto it has been at war since 2014 and all this time a reliable transit of oil and gas.
“All this has already happened, we have seen it. And if, in principle, there is such a state, then, in my opinion, you can go for it.“ For all packages against Russia, ”he said in comments to RBC-Ukraine.
Factor IAEA
The role of the mediator in negotiations on the situation at the ZNPP remains with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Its leader, Rafael Mariano Grossipedans, succeeded in de facto demilitarization by creating a defensive zone free from weapons and shelling attacks.
In the night he deals announced. This was preceded by shelling on November 20, as a result of which at least 12 arrivals were recorded in the parking area. Overpasses with special communications buildings, chemical demineralized water storage tanks, steam generator purge system, auxiliary systems of one of the two general station diesel engines and other equipment were damaged. The explosions revealed important cases of infection, and a non-radioactive leak was also found.
According to the Ukrainian side, the nature of the changes indicated that the obstacles were related to the construction of exactly the infrastructure that is necessary for the launch of power units 5 and 6 in order to resume electricity production for the needs of Ukraine. In recent weeks, the power grid has been detecting anti-missile strikes on energy facilities across the country.
In an interview with La Reppublica, Grossi hinted that there is a concrete proposal and progress has been made on the issue of the safety of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. In his opinion, both sides agree on some principles, and demilitarization will form the basis of a future deal in any case.
“Our goal is to avoid a nuclear catastrophe, and not to create a favorable environment for military action for any of the parties. My obligation is to find a solution as soon as possible. I hope we can do this before the end of the year,” he said and added that the presidents of Ukraine and Russia are watching personally.
At the same time, Grossi takes a neutral strife and does not accuse Russia of shelling the nuclear power plant. It is not his job to hold the responsibility, he says, and he cannot be the judge soldier in a successful matter. And for those experts who are now at the station, it is difficult to determine from which side the defeats are flying.
Photo: Rafael Mariano Grossi wants to be successful before the end of the year (GettyImages)
According to Alexander Musienko, the point on demilitarization was envisaged following the September visit of the IAEA to Energodar. And now there is talk about how this success. But in any case, demilitarization will have positive consequences.
“Firstly, Russia will withdraw its military equipment from abroad, withdraw the military and, I hope, stop, fire at the construction of the station, putting them under guard. This is very important from the point of view of considering the situation in the energy sector. Obviously, we would not hurt get adequate electricity from the eastern nuclear power plant in Europe Ukraine.
What they say in Ukraine
The Ukrainian side probably interprets the appearance of the IAEA somewhat differently, saying that it is the organization that wants to transfer military formations. According to adviser to the head of the Office of the President Mikhail Podolyak, the Russians were going to make an ultimatum to observe that the IAEA officially recognized the location of Rosatom, officially starting their own team and taking care of production processes. But legitimately, it can only attract Ukrainian specialists.
“In general, the Russians did not take place very well, and they are not needed anywhere regarding their escalation plans at the ZNPP. On the other hand, the situation on the fronts is now such that Russia can only put boards, they say, she is here forever. She can wait interesting events in the Zaporozhye region, therefore, it has already begun preparations for a “negative” offensive,” he said.
In addition, he doubts that the occupying forces hold the Zaporozhye NPP. In particular, external borders counteract immunity weakening. And this time, the Crimean history, when the world community gave up on the occupation by hand, will not pass.
“Russia, in fact and legally, will not be able to hold the Zaporizhzhya NPP. Podolyak.
Grain Deal Analogy
Expert Alexander Musienko believes that an agreement on the withdrawal of Russian troops from the ZNPP territory may be likely to start a grain war. That is, Ukraine will sign a part of the agreement with the UN represented by the IAEA and, possibly, Turkey, if it shows interest. And it will concern point questions.
“By analogy with the grain deal, two exceptional points were noted – the demilitarization of the ZNPP and the preservation in international transit, period. I don’t think there will be any deviations, especially in this document,” he clarifies.
As for the ultimatum not to conduct a counter-offensive in the Zaporozhye region, the Ukrainian side does not agree to it. For example, the grain deal was not really about Russia having to stop attacking Odessa or the region. As, in fact, the fall of Kherson did not prevent the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
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The very fact that Russia can make concessions in the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant suggests that Ukraine is pursuing its own goals. Including in relation to the spread in the south, while getting rid of the risks of Afghanistan.
Also, do not take into account that before the full-scale invasion, the station provided about 25% of all electricity and returned to the Ukrainian energy system with a high probability that problems with its lack can be solved.