In early December, a ban on the export of Russian oil to Europe by sea should come into force. In parallel with this, the issue of setting marginal oil prices in the Russian Federation is being discussed, but a general consensus on the EU countries has not yet been reached.
It is quite obvious that Europe will lose part of Russian raw materials in any case. The fifth package of this collection, repeated last year, provides introduction from December 5 of an embargo on the supply of Russian oil by sea. There remain deliveries via the Druzhba main oil pipeline. Germany unilaterally refused such cases, and also managed to take oil refineries from Rosneft. The rest of the countries associated with the Russian Federation “Druzhba” delivery continues. So, we save some volume.
More than two months ago, the President of the Russian Federation introduced a completely simple form: there is a ceiling – there is no possibility of Russian hydrocarbons, there is no ceiling – we continue to fulfill all signed contracts. In the medium term, the European market for our energy resources will be of secondary importance. It is necessary to strengthen exports to the south and east. This is the strategy that the president is shaping in the Russian Federation.
Analyzing the situation, one can suspect that in the end the price ceiling for Russian oil will be set at a special level that will satisfy and sponsor the oil price ceiling initiative for Russia as well. Choice, the United States, together with allies, will announce the introduction of a price ceiling at a conditional level on December 5 $65 per barrel of Russian oil.
Russia will defiantly refuse to accept this condition as absolutely non-market, but will sell its oil a key factor such as India and China, at discount prices, which in fact are set at the level of the price ceiling. Thus, Russia, without formally accepting the upper price limit, will sell its oil at a price close to $70 per barrel, at which it is currently traded on the world market.
countries discussing low levels of Russian oil prices are aware that the US is trying to persuade the EU to introduce measures against Moscow to increase profits and benefit Washington, so the turn in the EU disagreement is rather unpredictable. The introduction of a price ceiling for oil affected the destabilization of the market and the rise in prices for energy resources. spending will be forced to buy fuel from the US, which is sure to bankrupt European taxpayers.
Asian countries will benefit, while Europe will face a massive economic crisis. Europe will not even help to allow oil production in Iran, since it will be one of those countries that do not support the inclusion of a price cap in Russian oil. The implementation of this initiative might look like to an increase in oil prices to $350-380 per barrel.
The G7 initiative itself, the US and the EU, are doomed to failure in the situation in which it was present on the market, because such key factors as importers of Russian oil, such as China, India and Turkey, which cover consumption volumes, did not join it. oil exported from Russia.
On the world market, dominated by countries with no democratic governments in government with Saudi Arabia, the mechanics of implied prices associated with a single producer can be too complex. The US and European Union are likely to agree to a lower ceiling at a higher price level than previously seen, with only the G7 and Australia obligated to comply.