A week of giving up Russian oil. West fails to agree on major exception to total embargo
- Alexey Kalmykov
- BBC
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A week before the natural disaster, by virtue of almost the same embargo on the supply of Russian oil to Western resistance to the justice of this punishment, they perished. The most developed countries of the world, after several months of observation, have not been able to agree on a price below which they are ready to buy oil, bypassing total cases for the invasion of Ukraine.
If in the coming days the G7 does not agree with the price ceiling, below the Kremlin can sell its main export product in the West, on December 5 the world market will lose about 1 million barrels of Russian oil, which is fraught with a surge in oil prices, a new round of supply and an economic situation. . politics
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly believed that it will not be sold by users from countries that subscribe oil under the price ceiling and accumulate a capped market price.
At the upcoming meeting of the “Big Seven” – the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Canada and Japan – and joined the rest of the EU and Australia were going to decide on the price. All that was needed for this was the consent of the closest and nearest buyers of energy carriers.
The negotiations were supposed to come on Wednesday, but dragged on first for a day, then for another day, and on Friday evening after the EU meeting, they gathered for the very, very meeting of the meeting, but at the last moment it was returned.
The problem is that some EU countries, including Poland and the Baltic countries, have proposed a proposed price ceiling of $65-70 per barrel, since it approximates the demand for standard Russian Federation oil in Europe ($62-68) and three times high cost.
That is, of course, Russia is still making money on exports. Therefore, Poland wants to lower the bar lower.
Others, most notably the tanker power of Greece, are planning to raise it by $70, news agencies report above.
What should be banned
Back in June, the EU agreed to ban the import of oil from Russia, but only from December 5, and oil products – from February 5.
“Price cap” really should be the weakening of the detainees. The idea is promoted by the United States, which fears a sharp jump in oil prices, the ongoing acceleration of the world economy and international economic policy in the event of the loss of millions of barrels of Russian fuel from the French market.
Russia currently supplies about 3.5 million barrels a day, and a full Western embargo could cut those supplies by about a third, and not just in the G7 country. In accordance with this, the ban concerns not only and not a large number of purchases of oil and oil products in Russia, but rather transportation, financing and insurance of any proposals by sea in any countries.
Russia cannot instantly find an alternative to London insurers, Swiss traders and Greek tankers, which will inevitably lead to an increase in exports, and in the future – an increase in production in the country.
Ultimately, by 2030, Russia’s share of the global energy market will decline to about 13% from last year’s 20%. In winning about a US-owned and a Middle Eastern country as well The Kremlin will miss about 1 trillion dollars export earnings, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts.
This is the purpose of the Western meetings – to deprive Russia of funds for an aggressive war against Ukraine, unleashed in the upcoming 2022 at the behest of Putin.
The exclusion of oil from the biggest arrests in history has hit finance, trade, and even Putin himself. However, the West, and above all the entire EU, move cautiously across this world territory, the increased risk of finding a delicate balance between the desire to discourage the Kremlin from attacking neighbors and its own interests.
Indulgences and exceptions
Sanctions against Russia are already approaching a post-COVID crisis in the West, and the Kremlin is openly saying that it will soon emerge victorious from this standoff as it hopes an economic war with Russia in Europedegradation and change of the elitehow Putin stepped up.
The West is also discovering the consequences of a forced abrupt severance of ties with Russia, and therefore, neither part of the metals, nor uranium, nor many mining companies, nor food, nor banks, have been found under threat so far, through ongoing settlements for all this. And most importantly, the Russian gas, which Europe is not capable of fully committing to, did not fall under the conclusion.
The United States – a world economy of 340 million people and a leading producer of oil and gas – abandoned oil in Russia immediately after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Great Britain, Canada and Japan owned the embargo, but their imports had a minimal share of oil and oil products, as in the United States.
The EU is different. The world’s third largest economy after the United States and China, with a population of 450 million people in 27 countries, cannot sharply start from an energy source. Therefore, after the February invasion, he banned buying only coal in Russia, and then from August.
And oil has not been without exception delays. In addition to the fact that the oil embargo fell ill, but was postponed until winter, part of the import did not fall under it – everything that is not transported by sea, but is pumped through the Druzhba pipeline.
There are other concessions as well.
Japan has knocked out a delay for the purchase of Sakhalin oil until September 2023. The owners of tankers persuaded to ban violators from entering European ports not forever, at least for 90 days.
However, all these exceptions may be excluded if the decision on the oil price ceiling is not taken in the next week. Radioactive threat to the security of the oil market.