Matsoukas: Hotter and drier summers in Greece due to climate crisis
This became known during its implementation UN Climate Conference (COP27), (November 7-8) with the main goal of not exceeding the global temperature era of 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels.
“To do this, greenhouse gas emissions will have to start falling by 2025 at the latest and continue to fall sharply, so that by 2050 they will be zero,” he says in CNN Greece Mr. Christos Matsoukas, Associate Professor, Department of Environment, University of the Aegean.
How feasible is this, according to the professor, and what will happen to our country in the coming years due to the climate crisis?
According to the professor, “due to the climate crisis, it is observed increase in temperature almost all over the globe and there is a general tendency for dry areas to become drier and wet (areas) to become wetter. Thus, the frequency of droughts and floods has increased globally.”
Regarding Greece, “our hot and dry summers are forecast to become considerably drier and warmer than the global average. The above changes will create pressure both on our crops and on our own work,” says Mr. Matsoukas.
Read the entire interview of Professor Christos Matsoukas, at Act for the Earth in the CNN Greece.
What are the consequences of the climate crisis as observed in recent years on our planet?
An increase in temperature is observed almost all over the globe, although each place or season has different rates of increase. Although it is more difficult to study changes in precipitation (eg rain, snowfall), we can confidently talk about changes in certain areas of the planet.
there is a general trend dry areas becoming drier and wet (areas) becoming wetter. Thus, the frequency of droughts and floods has increased worldwide. Temperature and precipitation are the climate variables that determine to a greater extent human activities and ecosystem functions. Thus, the climate crisis affects a huge range of human activities (eg crops, livestock, energy production and consumption, damage to infrastructure) and ecosystem processes (eg species extinction, habitat change, application to biodiversity).
There are also changes in many other aspects of the climate system, such as ocean acidification, melting of sea and land ice, reduction of the snow-covered area, rise of the sea level, etc. Although the public may assess the changes as less important to everyday life, possibly due to geographic distance, scientists are concerned about the apparent destabilization of a complex system with internal interactions such as the climate system. “Minor” in one area can quickly turn into severe in another. If we include our socio-economic globalized activity, this potential geographic transfer of problems becomes even more apparent.
What do we expect from the UN Climate Conference held in Egypt? What are the goals? Can they be achieved? If so, over what time horizon?
Each new UN Climate Conference garners more global interest than the last. This in itself is encouraging, but the previous times did not lead to decisions being made or procedures being put in place that the scientific community would consider satisfactory for dealing with the problem. in 26th Conference (COP26) in Glasgow in 2021 we welcomed the commitments made by every state to climate action and the clear plan to phase out fossil fuels, but we already knew that the measures were more lukewarm than necessary. Although at the 27th Conference the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres set the right tone to opening speech of him, I do not know to what extent he will be heard.
The UN has set goals for sustainable development, explains them in 17 areas, one of which is climate action. Of course, the climate crisis also affects several of the other 16 sectors. The main goal is to keep global warming below 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures. To do this, greenhouse gas emissions would have to begin to decrease by 2025 at the latest and continue to decrease drastically, so that by 2050 they would be zero.
The difficulty of this undertaking becomes apparent if we consider that during 2020 with the COVID-19 pandemic in full swing and the sharp braking of our economic activity, emissions of these gases were temporarily reduced by 5%.
In other words, in order to complete the aforementioned goal, emissions must be reduced from 2025 onwards by an amount comparable to the reduction in 2020! At present, national commitments at COP26 in 2021 are not sufficient to achieve this goal.
It is possible to succeed by tightening the commitments, but for the political will, informing the public and the willingness of international practical cooperation.
What are the environmental consequences until 2030 in the event that the commitments of the states are not immediately implemented to limit the increase in the temperature of the planet to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era.
The effort to limit warming to 1.5 °C is long-term as it extends at least until 2050. This suggests that the climate is changing slowly, at least with our current capabilities, towards stabilization or destabilization. After that, it will continue to change, and by 2030 its change does not depend much on our decisions, any more than the speed of a freight train does not change in the first few seconds after the driver brakes.
Our choice of actions will substantially differentiate the environmental conditions in temperature and precipitation only after decades. In the effort we are called to make, success or failure will be seen in the next generation or generations.
So by 2030, whether we start implementing the commitments or not, the temperature will rise further, bringing us closer to the 1.5 °C limit and possibly exceeding it (hopefully temporarily). The possibility of occurrence of extreme phenomena such as heat waves, floods, droughts will depend, depending on the area. But what will be true in 2050 depends entirely on what we start to implement in the following years.
What will happen to agriculture, the sea and the dose of global warming?
Even if we take into account the most optimistic scenario, to see a stabilization and decrease in the temperature of the planet we have to wait decades. We will necessarily have to adapt to current and emerging conditions that are different from the past.
We expect changes in the yields of existing crops under the new conditions, in most cases decreases and in a few cases increases.
Particularly vulnerable to food crises are the developing countries of the “Global South”. In the case of Greece, our hot and dry summers are expected to become considerably drier and warmer than the global average.
The above changes will create both pressure on our crops and our forests. We will be forced to better manage water resources, replicate the viability of certain crops, manage the increased risk of wildfires and the possibility that some forest species will no longer thrive here.
As for the sea, its temperature has already increased in proportion to the increase in air temperature, making the new conditions unfavorable for some endemic species, but favorable for some invasive species. Such rearrangements will affect the health of marine ecosystems, fisheries, fish farms.
Also, the circulation of the global ocean is regulated by the temperature of the water and its salt content. Both are changing, the former due to global warming, the latter due to a change in its patterns precipitation and ice melting. Changes in ocean circulation act on much longer scales than the atmosphere, we are now talking about centuries. The same happens with her sea level. So we expect slow changes in ocean currents and increases in sea level of about 30-60 cm by 2100, with severe changes to our infrastructure and water supplies, due to saltwater intrusion into our aquifers.
The reference to the end of the 21st century. it is done because human life is comparable to such a period, but it creates wrong impressions. The sea changes very slowly compared to the atmosphere and so its attitude will inevitably continue to rise for centuries to come. Its final height may increase by a few meters, but it will be determined by how drastically or not we reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
How does the war in Ukraine contribute to the environmental problems of the planet?
Combustion of natural gas emits less greenhouse gases per kWh than other fossil fuels and thus is used as a transition fuel in the transition from air to zero greenhouse gas emissions.
THE war in Ukraine it prevents Europe from using Russian gas and forces us back to more polluting burning of fossil fuels. On the other hand, our intention to energy independence from Russiais a strong incentive to temporarily curtail energy production and accelerate investment in renewables.
I am not an expert on these matters and cannot make an estimate of the final climatic toll of this war. It could undo years of efforts to decarbonize, or perhaps catalyze another step forward in new energy sources for Europe and, in a second year, for the rest of the planet.