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PORTUGAL

Electoral Change in Times of Perma-Crisis: Portugal, 2002-2022

Sugar Mizzy November 21, 2022

Program:
9:05 am – 9:20 am – Presentation – Marina Costa Lobo and Ana Espírito-Santo
9:20 – 11:15 – Panel 1: Social cleavages and voting behavior
Moderator: Marina Costa Lobo

Shrinking or widening the gap? Youth participation in the new millennium
Patrício Costa, Carlos Jalali (GOVCOPP & DCSPT, U. Aveiro) and Patrícia Silva (UA; GOVCOPP)

Gender and voting – ruptures and continuities in the Portuguese context
Edna Costa (EEG-UM; CICP), Patrícia Silva (UA; GOVCOPP) and Ana Espírito-Santo (ISCTE, CIES-ISCTE)

Far from the madding crowd: Urban/rural divergence in Portuguese political behavior
Pedro C. Magalhães (ICS-ULisboa) and João Cancela (NOVA FCSH)

The return of religion? Religious cleavage, party strategies and voting in Portugal
Carlos Jalali (GOVCOPP & DCSPT, U. Aveiro)
Speakers: José Santana Pereira and Edalina R. Sanches

11:15 am – 11:45 am – Break
11:45 – 13:15 – Panel 2: Ideology and Short-Term Factors as Voting Determinants
Moderator: Ana Espírito-Santo

Party polarization and ideological voting in Portugal, 2002-2022
André Freire, Helena Carvalho and Viriato Queiroga (ISCTE-IUL; CIES)

Media coverage of party leaders. The effect of media importance and tone on attitudes and voting behavior
Marina Costa Lobo and Tiago Silva (ICS-ULisboa)

Political salience and transfer of responsibility in voting for the incumbent in Portugal
Ana Belchior and Tiago Brás (ISCTE, CIES-Iscte)
Speakers: Carlos Jalali and Patrício Costa

1:15 pm to 2:30 pm – Break
2:30 pm – 4:00 pm – Panel 3: Party successes and failures over time
Moderator: Carlos Jalali

The resistance and decline of the Portuguese Communist Party
Sofia Serra-Silva and Nelson Santos (ICS-ULisboa)

Explaining the electoral performance of social democracy in Portugal: 2002-2022
Ana Espírito-Santo (ISCTE, CIES-Iscte) and Sofia Serra-Silva (ICS-ULisboa)

PSD’s electoral puzzle
Marina Costa Lobo (ICS-ULisboa)
Speakers: Ana Belchior and João Cancela

4:00 pm – 4:30 pm – Break
4:30 pm – 6:00 pm – Panel 4: Abstention and 2022 election under review
Moderator: Ana Espírito-Santo

Twenty years of abstention: changes and continuities in the explanatory factors of electoral participation (2002-2022)
João Cancela (NOVA FCSH), José Santana Pereira and Ana Rezende-Matias (ISCTE, CIES-ISCTE)

Still not enough? The electoral potential of a radical right populist party in Portugal
Lea Heyne and Luca Manucci (ICS-ULisboa)

Exposure to polls and subjective perception of their results as predictors of strategic voting and mobilization for voting: the case of the 2022 pre-election polls in Portugal
José Santana Pereira (Iscte and Cies-Iscte), Hugo Ferrinho Lopes (ICS-ULisboa) and Susana Rogeiro Nina (Lusófona University)

Speakers: André Freire and Sofia Serra-Silva

18:00-18:30 – Closing Discussion – Closing
Moderator: Marina Costa Lobo

More information🇧🇷

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