Electoral Change in Times of Perma-Crisis: Portugal, 2002-2022
Program:
9:05 am – 9:20 am – Presentation – Marina Costa Lobo and Ana Espírito-Santo
9:20 – 11:15 – Panel 1: Social cleavages and voting behavior
Moderator: Marina Costa Lobo
Shrinking or widening the gap? Youth participation in the new millennium
Patrício Costa, Carlos Jalali (GOVCOPP & DCSPT, U. Aveiro) and Patrícia Silva (UA; GOVCOPP)
Gender and voting – ruptures and continuities in the Portuguese context
Edna Costa (EEG-UM; CICP), Patrícia Silva (UA; GOVCOPP) and Ana Espírito-Santo (ISCTE, CIES-ISCTE)
Far from the madding crowd: Urban/rural divergence in Portuguese political behavior
Pedro C. Magalhães (ICS-ULisboa) and João Cancela (NOVA FCSH)
The return of religion? Religious cleavage, party strategies and voting in Portugal
Carlos Jalali (GOVCOPP & DCSPT, U. Aveiro)
Speakers: José Santana Pereira and Edalina R. Sanches
11:15 am – 11:45 am – Break
11:45 – 13:15 – Panel 2: Ideology and Short-Term Factors as Voting Determinants
Moderator: Ana Espírito-Santo
Party polarization and ideological voting in Portugal, 2002-2022
André Freire, Helena Carvalho and Viriato Queiroga (ISCTE-IUL; CIES)
Media coverage of party leaders. The effect of media importance and tone on attitudes and voting behavior
Marina Costa Lobo and Tiago Silva (ICS-ULisboa)
Political salience and transfer of responsibility in voting for the incumbent in Portugal
Ana Belchior and Tiago Brás (ISCTE, CIES-Iscte)
Speakers: Carlos Jalali and Patrício Costa
1:15 pm to 2:30 pm – Break
2:30 pm – 4:00 pm – Panel 3: Party successes and failures over time
Moderator: Carlos Jalali
The resistance and decline of the Portuguese Communist Party
Sofia Serra-Silva and Nelson Santos (ICS-ULisboa)
Explaining the electoral performance of social democracy in Portugal: 2002-2022
Ana Espírito-Santo (ISCTE, CIES-Iscte) and Sofia Serra-Silva (ICS-ULisboa)
PSD’s electoral puzzle
Marina Costa Lobo (ICS-ULisboa)
Speakers: Ana Belchior and João Cancela
4:00 pm – 4:30 pm – Break
4:30 pm – 6:00 pm – Panel 4: Abstention and 2022 election under review
Moderator: Ana Espírito-Santo
Twenty years of abstention: changes and continuities in the explanatory factors of electoral participation (2002-2022)
João Cancela (NOVA FCSH), José Santana Pereira and Ana Rezende-Matias (ISCTE, CIES-ISCTE)
Still not enough? The electoral potential of a radical right populist party in Portugal
Lea Heyne and Luca Manucci (ICS-ULisboa)
Exposure to polls and subjective perception of their results as predictors of strategic voting and mobilization for voting: the case of the 2022 pre-election polls in Portugal
José Santana Pereira (Iscte and Cies-Iscte), Hugo Ferrinho Lopes (ICS-ULisboa) and Susana Rogeiro Nina (Lusófona University)
Speakers: André Freire and Sofia Serra-Silva
18:00-18:30 – Closing Discussion – Closing
Moderator: Marina Costa Lobo