Russia wins in the fight for Belarus
Sociologists note that with regard to special operations in society, there has been a turning point in the use of Moscow.
Nikolai Karpenkov: “Our transfers went crazy.” Photo from www.mvd.gov.by
Independent reports report that Russia’s actions in the support service are increasingly Belarusian citizens. Opposition representatives cannot explain these data and demand that they be questioned. In turn, pro-government sociologists note that lately people have been afraid to express their opinion. Against this background, the rhetoric of officials is tightening. So, the commander of the internal troops attacks that the opponents of the authorities should be killed like “mad dogs”.
The data of a sociological study conducted by the Belarusian Analytical Workshop by Professor Andrei Vardomatsky, which were discovered at the International Congress of Events in Belarus in Kaunas, shocked the opposition. The sociologist said that if in March of this year they were against the use of the territory of Belarus by the Russian army, then in September – only 51.4%. If in May 2022 in Ukraine 50.3% of respondents sympathized, then in September only 33.9%. But now 32% sympathize with Russia. In May, there were 21.1% of such people. 21.1% and 20.3% of respondents, respectively, fully approve or rather approve of Russia’s actions.
Andrey Vardomatsky himself, presenting the study, said: “This seems to be the largest data that I have ever reported in my life. If earlier I spoke, summing up the data, about the echo of the “Russian world”, the penetration of the “Russian world”, now the offensive of the “Russian world” is taking place.
Vardomatsky’s colleagues were puzzled by these data. Thus, senior researcher at the Center for New Ideas, ex-director of the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus Gennady Korshunov told the Zerkalo Internet resource: “The lack of use of data income is surprising. Bare numbers are given, and at the presentation it was said that a medical background arose in people’s opinion. But if you draw such conclusions, they need to be supported by data. For example, figures that the number of those who watch Russian TV has increased, or decreased – those who receive information from individual media, or something else. Just some percentages are immediately announced, but there is no explanation for them, and where there is, it is not justified by other figures.
The expert also noted: “Another important aspect is that the results of the study of Vardomatsky’s workshop are not related to surveys of other sociologists. For example, in the June and August surveys by Chatham House, there was a clear trend: support for Russia’s actions among Belarusians is slow, but the incidence is increasing. Ryhor Astapenya recorded this with the phrase “melting supports”. And then suddenly growth. Where? It used to be clear, and to break it, there had to be something luxurious. What happened? Dont clear. Therefore, there are questions. When we find such an explosion in the data, it must be analyzed and given already with an idea, but here it is not.”
Meanwhile, absolutely exactly with this controversy and regardless of what it makes absolutely loyal to the current government of the sociologist. Director of the State Belarusian Institute for Qualitative Research Oleg Makarov said on the air of the ONT TV channel: “The society has become more closed. And in connection with this, this is precisely why we need high-quality sociology and we need high-quality science, high quality. People began to wait more, people became more restrained in their assessments.
We also stopped seeing some of the nuances that messages include. Therefore, special measures are needed, special methods, sciences – sociology in the first place, which will be able to interpret the mood of society.
The state television of Belarus is really translating an increasingly tough and uncontested, as sociologists say, forming the representation of power. And, in particular, in the rating of opposition leaders.
Nikolay Karpenkov:
And he received the answer: “They are mad and degraded against the backdrop of everything that is happening. From them more and more is required some kind of verbal bravado, feats. And they are more and more themselves in this business, in this madness surpass. Insanity, really. After all, all the symbols that are there are satanic. And the devil so possessed them that … Here is the film “Reservoir Dogs”. Really rabid dogs that deserve only one thing – death.
Political scientist Pavel Usov, in his own Telegram channel, commenting on this statement, also resorted to “demonology”. The expert stated: “Regular outrageous and hysterical statements by Karpenkov and others about the Belarusian opposition indicate that in Lukashenka’s entourage, not even “hawks”, but “demons” are being exceeded. This block today, apparently, is quite numerous and influential. Apparently, the key support and resource of the “demons” is a considerable raider strike group – GUBOBiK (Main Directorate for Combating Organized Crime), KGB, SSO (Special Operations Forces of the Republic of Belarus), which consolidated during the period of repression and became, according to the constitution , “elite”.
This entire stratum is no longer even “pro-Lukashenko”, not “pro-state”, but rather “pro-regime”, that is, it supports only a repressive order and servants. And often they serve Lukashenka only because he does not get out of order and is part of it. I think that the “demons” will gradually become convinced that this order can be built without Lukashenka.”