How much Russia has earned from foreign trade – 4 October 2022
While the world is in stagnation, sanctions are being tightened in the West, Russia’s main trading partners continue to perform the functions of the execution of the Russian Federation and supply our industry with high productivity.
Fontanka calculated (in grams) how much we added earnings for hydrocarbon emissions, how China improved the situation with ensuring an uninterrupted supply of us with electronics, and Turkey with microorganisms. For those who do not want to dig in a large number, just a short summary: so far, everything is very good with us. And what will happen next, no one knows even approximately.
Russia’s main problem is the loss of Western hydrocarbon markets. Last year we sold almost $270 billion of them. More than 150 of them are in countries that are currently actively getting rid of oil and gas. Of course, on
Nevertheless, the issue of diversifying sales markets – we have a question
The second problem is the saturation of the domestic market with imported products. First of all, high tech. Not only elected members remain against us, but also the unprecedented right to elected spouses in this field by the authors who have been chosen.
If we turn to the numbers, it looked something like this: compared to last year, the choice from exporting Russian goods to growing in Germany. According to the receipts of the reports of the customs department of the Federal Republic of Germany (for January – July), the proceeds from the sale in total reach the amount of 27.9 billion dollars. A year earlier it was 26.4 billion rubles.
Das ist fantastisch
Yes, it is to be expected that this growth is the result of an exceptional price environment in the world energy markets. In terms of tons, we were able to ship much less to Germany – 44 against 60 million tons. It is interesting to look into this in more detail. Naturally, hydrocarbons make the main contribution to the Russian-German trade balance on our part. Of almost $28 billion in profits from Germany since the beginning of the year, they accounted for $22 billion.
The vast majority is gas. According to the unknown edition of Fontanka, the statistics on it (TN VED code “2711”) are not felt by the Germans. In all months, both in the column “tons” and in the column “dollars” there are dashes. However, with a simple use of an arithmetic operation – subtract from the general characteristics of the code “27” (“Dangerous fuel, oil, etc.”) everything that is not gas, that is, oil, coal, shale, etc., belongs to the correct figure. In dollars, this is – for January – July – 18.8 billion rubles.
It would be possible to calculate how the price of gas has changed over this year, and we would have come out with
It was in this year that they were discovered last year. In the first seven months alone, Russia failed to deliver 12 million tons of gas to Germany. And reading the latter, we understand that the news on the results of the year of falling exports to Germany, to put it mildly, will fall sharply. Just like American dollars.
As for the rest of our exports to Germany, to the total supply, for exclusive hydrocarbons, a drop in tons by 1.5 times. But on the other hand, in dollars it grew by quite tangible
For example, the proceeds from the offer of nickel increased by 1.5 times, and this is immediately 477 million dollars. Revenues from the sale of rare metals to Germany, primarily titanium, doubled. Revenues from the supply of aluminum increased by 35%, copper – by 51%. The supply of gold has grown strongly – more than 7 tons of it left Russia this year for Germany, although earlier it was bought by the UK. We got almost $500 million for it, and even more – $600 million – for palladium.
With a bang in Germany are Russian food industry waste – soybean and sunflower oil cakes. They are used in animal husbandry and in pet food. Such, naturally, a late thing fell on exporters this year, 120 million US dollars. against 70 years ago.
Well, the largest growth in our exports among well-known nomenclatures is in fertilizers. Immediately by 3.5 times and a solid $108 million. Maybe this will seem like a trifle to someone, but, for example, Russian canned meat and fish grew in Germany by 17, times the statistics is $2.8 million for someone .
But with German imports, everything is really bad. And in tons, and in dollars, it collapsed almost twice. In particular, goods under the customs code “84” – “Machines, mechanisms and devices.” This is the largest export item from Germany to Russia and an important share for the Russian industry. If we look for at least some positive, it is worth noting that the stocks of agricultural machinery and mechanisms have been preserved almost in full, grinding liquid pumps and centrifuges are not bad for us – even in July. That is, at the very least, imports go on, and someone still receives the necessary equipment.
By the way, from absolutely good news – the supply of medicines (in tons) almost did not disappear. Everything else, of course, is rather sad.
Greetings from China
The most pleasant thing that can now be for a customs analyst is to look at trade statistics with China. She grew up, got prettier, matured. It is important to support the Russian share both in terms of financial support and in slowing down the technological process.
Judge for yourself. The highest level of hydrocarbons in January-September of the year China bought in Russia for 54 billion dollars. This is against 32 billion years ago. The full capacity of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, as well as the supply of oil and oil products, are presented and presented. In the bottom line, over the 9 months of this very suspended year, China has additionally supported our country by $ 22 billion. There is no need to say how valuable this is now.
Most articles related to export. Meat, fish, fertilizers, inorganic chemicals, rubber, steel. From the negative – perhaps wood, vegetable fats, copper and ores, but not by much. In total, we sent goods to China worth 73 billion dollars. A year earlier, it was 48 billion rubles.
And if last year it was still possible to talk about an approximate trade parity – 40 billion against 48, now the trade balance is completely in our use. 73 vs. 44. Few countries in the world can increase by siphoning 30 billion from China. As a rule, everyone’s money goes in the reverse order.
We are highly inclined to the fact that vezem And here we should be glad – the most science-intensive things come to us in a larger volume than last year. By the end of summer, we brought a variety of equipment, mechanisms and machines from China worth $ 9.7 billion – plus
Perhaps most valuable is the growth in microelectronics imports. The weakest link in the Russian economy. Tams are small – about 256 million dollars this year. But all these transistors, printed circuit boards and integrated circuits are not expensive. The main thing is that they are.
Imports of electronics fell a little (-6%), but still it is 7.7 billion even in conditions of seemingly strict hits. Car imports grew by 15% ($3.2 billion), but this growth is still worth it, mainly due to rising incomes. But the growth in the import of plastic goods (
Separately, we can note the colossal growth in imports of tobacco products – from 2 to 180 million dollars. These are the times now – the production of Russian tobacco factories of foreign manufacturers is greatly stalled, and lights up, for example, we now have IQOS from China.
Why do we need the Turkish coast
Turkey has become a critically important trading partner for Russia this year. For this, she is forgiven for not the most friendly behavior in two theaters of operations at once.
What do we provide in return? First, $37 billion for the export of Russian goods. A year ago it was 17.
The leaders, of course, are the hydrocarbons that the Turks have collected from us in eight months
Very good growth in cereals. Yes, their prices have skyrocketed, but we are also growing decently in volumes. As a result, 2 billion against 1.2 years ago. Turkey has increased the purchase of our precious metals very well, which really helps to compensate for losses from exports to the UK. It’s 5 more
An additional 300 million compared to 2021 in Turkey was received from the sale of copper. Plus 160 million dollars – for products of organic chemistry, almost the same – for vegetable and animal fats. Almost 120 – for 100 million – for 100 million.
This is how, in general, up to 20 billion are accumulated, which have well replenished the wallets of Russian exporters who have corrected the situation of the departed losses in the Western markets of Russian exporters.
Excess losses – metal ores, aluminum and steel. There is a range of values in
However, much more valuable is the growth of imports. Especially for the most important for our earthly economy – equipment with the code “84”. Not only did growth by a quarter ($572 million) follow the results of 8 months, but also very positive growth dynamics – in August growth immediately
An even more impressive growth in the supply of plastic products is
In general, a review of trade relations with observed emissions allows us to talk about some – very, of course, fragility, but a balance, given that the Russian economy is going through the second half of 2022. Where and with what load the trade winds will blow further, no expert will undertake to predict. But so far it’s not that bad. Just don’t jinx it.
Denis Lebedev, Fontanka.ru