Sweden’s BEV cars take over a third of the market
Sweden’s share of plug-in electric vehicles recovered in September, increasing to 55.2% of the car market, from 53.9% a year ago. Full Electrics got a 35.3% share, their 2nd highest ever from last December. Plug-in hybrids declined slightly year-on-year. Total car volumes were down 3% compared to pre-2020 seasonal norms and about 21% compared to the previous year. The best-selling BEV in September was once again the Volkswagen ID.4.
September’s combined plug-in result of 55.2% was made up of a near-record 35.3% battery electrics (BEVs) and 19.8% plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). These can be compared with the respective shares of 32.9% and 21.0% a year ago. Thus, BEVs’ share has increased modestly, but PHEVs have decreased. BEV stock was still the highest YTD, and second only to the December 2021 peak (see timeline chart below).
In terms of volume, in an overall car market shrinking 3% year-on-year, BEVs grew slightly (7,454 to 7,777) and PHEVs lost volume (4,751 to 4,370).
Plugin growth is clearly weak overall in September and YTD, but not due to a lack of BEV demand. Tesla’s recent production shutdown meant that their delivery volume in Sweden was only 915 units in September, down over 1,000 units year-on-year (from 1,979 units).
Putting Tesla aside for the moment, non-Tesla BEVs have actually increased their delivery volumes by 25.3% year over year, painting a much healthier picture. Had Tesla simply matched this trend (or more likely exceeded it), BEVs would have taken a new record 37.6% share in September.
There is no shortage of demand growth for BEV cars – in fact, there are long waiting times – the issue is simply a lack of supply to deliver to Swedish consumers.
On the other hand, the share for combustion alone fell below 32% for the first time on record. Their combined volume fell nearly 20% year-on-year, to 7,033 units, a new low (and less than BEV sales). The apparent steady decline in combustion-only sales is leading to a gradual reduction in the fleet of polluting vehicles on Sweden’s roads.
Top BEV
With Tesla’s Shanghai snafus, their usual peak at the end of the quarter – which has given them the top spot in every quarter over the past year – wasn’t enough to outpace the competition this time around. Instead, Volkswagen took the top spot with the ID.4, from the Volvo XC40 and Kia Niro.
The Volvo is back in the front ranks after spending the last 3 months in the wilderness (well outside the top 20). Its sibling, the Volvo C40, also suffered a similar fate, coming in 7th place.
The Kia Niro, usually a regular in Sweden’s top 3 in recent years, had seen a notable decline in July and August, as stocks of the previous variant ran out and the updated version was on its way. Now that the new version has finally appeared, the Niro is back in the top 3.
Other notables in September were the first appearance in Sweden of the new Nissan Ariya. It saw initial volumes of 55 units and is likely to climb rapidly from here. The long-awaited MG4 also made a first appearance, though only in showroom volumes for now (6 units). It will be at least another month or two before it arrives in notable volumes, but seems likely destined for the top 10 given its competitive pricing and the popularity of its older MG ZS sibling (regularly in the top 5 over the past year).
Stepping back for a broader perspective, let’s look at the three-month performance of the top BEV models:
So far this year, the Tesla Model Y has always been in the top 3, and often the leader. With the underperforming peak at the end of the quarter this time around (probably temporary, discussed above), it has now slipped to sixth place.
The Volkswagen ID.4, also regularly in the top 3, has now taken the top spot. Its group sibling Skoda Enyaq has stepped up to 2nd.
Despite a low September volume, the MG ZS is in third place over the three months. The Kia Niro has lost some places during the update, but returned to strength in September, so it will soon regain the top 3.
Here’s a rundown of the top climbers over the past three months, compared to the April-June period:
Which models lost in the meantime? The Tesla Model Y suffered, as we have discussed. Here is the summary:
Note that we cannot draw too many deep conclusions from one set of results. The e-tron and Marvel R both climbed the ranks in our July report, while the Leaf fell. For now their fates are reversed.
In a relatively low volume market like Sweden, the most we can say is that logistics batching and similar allocation decisions can change the ranking quite significantly in short periods.
Models that are consistently in the top 10 are obviously doing something right in terms of value proposition and appeal, but – at this still early stage of the EV transition – much of their success may be down to simply ‘stepping up’ in available volumes.
Conversely, models outside the top 10 can also be very convincing, just limited by the supply (either global or that assigned to Sweden). For example, the Cupra Born may be in the latter category, and the MG4 is too, for now at least.
Until global battery production capacity (and other key supply chains) catch up with the growth in demand for BEVs, we don’t know what models, brands and value propositions people will choose in an open and unrestricted market. This won’t shake out completely until at least the early 2030s.
Sight
Sweden’s car market is firmly in the hot zone of the transition to electric cars, although progress this year is limited by supply. In the big picture, demand is undoubtedly much more important, and in this regard it is clear that Sweden has already firmly voted to quickly switch to electric cars.
With road fuel prices sharply up across Europe, relative interest in plugins remains high. Despite high electricity prices and shocking rates of overall energy price inflation, the operating cost savings of plug-ins compared to internal combustion vehicles are still very significant.
Plugin share growth in the remaining months will continue to be shaped almost entirely by supply volumes, rather than any restraint in demand. We know that many BEVs still have 12-month waiting lists, while combustion-only vehicles have shorter waiting times on average, which reinforces their performance.
What are your expectations for Sweden’s transition during the rest of this year, and into 2023? Please jump into the comments below to share your thoughts.
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