Economists assessed the possible contribution of technology to Russia’s GDP growth in the next 30 years
The Institute for Economic Forecasting (INP) of the Russian Academy of Sciences estimated the possible contribution of new technologies to the development of the Russian economy on the horizon of 30 years. According to the inertial development scenario, in 2026–2030 the average economic growth rate slows down to 1.7%, in 2031–2040 to 1.6%, and in 2040–2050 to 1.2%. Accelerate the pace to 3.4% per year in the audience of the population of macroeconomic policy and technological innovation, informs RBC with reference to an article by Alexander Shirov, director of the INP RAS.
Author of the article: growth rates below 2% of GDP growth “unfavorable environmental situation in the Russian economy.” The inertial scenario assumes that the structure of the Russian economy will remain in the forecast period, as well as the contribution of technological progress to GDP growth that is lower than the average for 2000–2019. In his opinion, growth rates over a 30-year horizon will be ensured by increased growth, the accumulation of production factors (increasing the efficiency of technological progress and the quality of institutions) and oil prices.
The business-as-usual scenario also revealed negative demographic projections—labor constraints cannot be offset by productivity growth. Possible growth drivers relative to the business-as-usual scenario make it possible to identify changes in macroeconomic policy and the application of new technologies. According to economists, these measures could lead to economic growth of up to 3.4% of GDP annually from 2022 to 2040.
In the short and medium term, the observed macroeconomic policy, primarily budgetary, can be only up to 0.3 percentage points (pp) of increase in GDP growth in 2022-2040. According to the economist, the impact of monetary policy will be rather neutral, and the possibility of increasing the level of public debt and redistributing public funds in the economy is limited. The key direction for further expansion of economic growth will be the use of new technologies, export Shirov in his article.
Acceleration of growth rates is possible both due to the aesthetic dependence on imports and the normalization of its market share, and due to the growth of efficiency, that is, the added value per unit of primary resources used in production. According to the economist, the task to be solved in scientific and technological development in the next two years will be “complication of the Russian economy and an increase in the number of countries in the global division of labor.”
The authors of the article assessed the potential contribution to the growth of big technologies:
- Development of public transport and consideration of the possibility of increasing the number of cars by 0.46 p.p. in year.
- New technologies in metallurgy will give an increase of 0.25 p.p.
- The development of composite materials in the automotive industry and construction is able to increase growth by 0.21 p.p.
- “Smart” agriculture is able to consume the country’s GDP 0.17 p.p.
- The use of electric vehicles can add 0.15 p.p.
- Digitization may add another 0.09 p.p.
- At the beginning, technological factors can increase the economic growth rate by 1.4 percentage points. historical
In August, experts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting (CMASF) called the inertial scenario of economic development the most probable for Russia. The CMASF warned of “protracted stagnation with economic dynamics of about 1.5% per year, with a gradual increase in the backlog in high technologies, the level and quality of life, and national security.”
According to Valery Mironov, Director of the Development Center Institute at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, from 2030 to 2040 Russia should grow at an average rate of at least 2.5%, based on the calculation of total factor productivity. In particular, thanks to the digitalization of production, the Russian economy can build strength in other sectors, which will contribute to economic growth. In 2012, the OECD is looking forward to Vision 2060: Threats to Future Growth. forecaster for Russia, an average annual growth rate of 3% in 2011–2030. and 1.3% in 2031–2060.