Innsbruck/Vienna: Election in Tyrol: Austria’s conservatives see black
In Tyrol, the ÖVP gets away with scratches and saves its power. But the disastrous election result raises uncomfortable questions – also about the future of Chancellor Karl Nehammer.
Shortly after the first figures became known, a loser appears in front of the cameras who wants to present himself as a winner: Anton Mattle, top candidate and head of the conservative Austrian People’s Party in Tyrol, keeps it short. He thanks everyone who put his trust in him, Mattle hardly goes into the heavy losses: a minus of almost ten percentage points means the worst result for the ÖVP in the traditionally deep black Tyrol since 1945.
Mattle, who only took over the Tyrolean party chairmanship from Günter Platter, who was still governor, in July, did everything possible during the election campaign to push the “People’s Party” label into the background as much as possible. On the posters and even on the ballot, only “MATTLE” was emblazoned instead of the ÖVP. The former mayor of Galtür in the Paznauntal did not want to get in too much of a league with the chancellor’s party, which was badly hit in the federal government after countless affairs.
Despite the heavy loss, Tyrol remains an ÖVP heartland
Did the strategy work? After all: The leadership claim of the conservatives in Tyrol remains at 34.7 percent – a total drop below 30 percent, as polls had predicted, did not materialize. Mattle played with exactly such a scenario in the election campaign and was able to mobilize its own camp on the target devices. Despite the crash, Tyrol remains a “black heartland” – and power is in the hands of the ÖVP. The previously governing black-green coalition was voted out on Sunday. The Greens only lose one and a half percentage points (9.2 percent), but mathematically speaking, a new edition is ruled out. The right-wing FPÖ was able to increase significantly, with 18.8 percent even ousting the SPÖ from second place.
The Social Democrats did not manage to use what was actually an ideal topic for them – in Tyrol, too, inflation, high energy prices and the topic of affordable housing dominated the election campaign. Despite the weak performance, SPÖ top candidate Georg Dornauer will achieve his goal of being able to help govern Innsbruck as the new junior partner.
ÖVP negotiated: No coalition partner has yet been determined
Because on election day, ÖVP boss Mattle ruled out cooperation with the FPÖ. Such a coalition would not exactly meet with approval, especially in Vienna. Three-way alliances, for example with the liberal Neos, are also conceivable, but certainly not a controlled option for Platter’s successor Mattle.
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The lousy results of the conservatives in Tyrol are also increasing nervousness in Vienna – above all in the case of ÖVP Chancellor Karl Nehammer. The end of black-green in Tyrol also means a resounding slap in the face for his own coalition with the Greens in the federal government, which has to deal with historically slow approval ratings and ongoing criticism of its hesitant and seemingly unconceptual crisis policy.
Nehammer and his Green Vice-Chancellor Werner Kogler are all the more emphasizing the need to continue government work right now, in the midst of the inflation and energy crisis. It is important to somehow make it through to the end of the legislative period in autumn 2024 – in the hope that the crisis could ease and the mood could turn positive by the regular election date.
In Manchesterorts, the FPÖ has already overtaken the ÖVP
The significant gains made by the right-wing populist FPÖ in Tyrol have also fueled the inner-party discussion in the ÖVP on how to prevent an even greater migration of voters to the Freedom Party. The latest example of this debate: the by no means voluntary departure of ÖVP Secretary General Laura Sachslehner at the beginning of September.
The supporter of ex-Chancellor Sebastian Kurz had also attacked an asylum seeker from the Green coalition partner on the issue of paying the anti-inflation bonus and had to resign after criticism from her own ranks. In some places, the FPÖ has already overtaken the ÖVP in polls and is in second place behind the SPÖ.
The Tyrolean result is also a bad omen for the powerful Lower Austrian governor Johanna Mikl-Leitner: She has to defend the absolute majority of the ÖVP in the state elections next spring, and she too is threatened by the mood of an election defeat. Then at the latest things could get tight for Chancellor Nehammer, who has been rather unlucky up to now. Rumors that State Secretary for Europe Karoline Edtstadler or Finance Minister Magnus Brunner could lead the stumbling Conservatives into the next National Council election instead of him have been floating around in the media for weeks.