A world of disaster
During the past summer we have received news of extreme droughts, huge forest fires and massive floods in different parts of the world. All the while, however, updates on the war in Ukraine have dominated the headlines. A year ago, many would probably have said that the covid-19 pandemic was the greatest disaster of our time.
If the perspective is extended to the future and the past, it hardly makes sense to start the sequence of disasters.
Although Covid-19 affects the entire globe, the climate disaster also has consequences for all of humanity. The publicity and commitment to the victims varies from country to country and in different parts of the world. Ukraine can be forgotten in Africa, and while the floods in Pakistan initially make headlines in the US and Europe, the reconstruction process quickly loses its news value.
After every major disaster, pious hopes are expressed that the international community, humanity, and nation-states have learned their lessons and are better prepared for future disasters. In the light of history, I dare to doubt this assumption. During the twenty years I worked for the Red Cross, the slogan was: “Prevention is better than cure”. But those in charge rarely listened, and during the next disaster it often became apparent that preparation had hardly improved.
Some countries are almost regularly affected by natural disasters: earthquakes, droughts, forest fires or floods. Preparation for all of these can be improved if only resources and determination are gathered. But nature keeps throwing us. The Southeast Asian tsunami took the world by surprise.
“Black swans” – new and unexpected disasters are unfortunately our likely fate. The Covid-19 pandemic has sparked pessimistic predictions about the future. The notion that man is not omnipotent and that nature cannot be controlled, but instead fights against, creeps into our self-image. As the virus has been the dominant agent and target, it has shown that humans can still be the target and the victim.
When Australia wanted to get rid of its rabbit problem, a virus was introduced that killed 99% of the population. If a bioterrorist managed to spread an equally effective virus – which is probably possible – one percent of humanity would be left before immunity developed. One percent is not enough to recreate our current civilization…
But we are optimistic. We assume we always have time to develop new vaccines, right? The delusion that nature is benevolent towards Homo Sapiens is widely held, but the truth is that nature is either neutral or indifferent; the stronger species survives.
Nor can we forget scourges such as AIDS, Ebola, Sars and bird and swine flu. The International Convention on the Prohibition of Biological Weapons has a secretariat of four staff members. It would not be much to rejoice if one of these plagues were set.
I haven’t yet mentioned perhaps the most devastating disaster model; conflicts that escalate and may lead to the use of nuclear weapons when one party is a
harm. Currently, the centers of conflict are in Ukraine and the Taiwan Strait. Despite the likely restraint, mistakes are always possible.
Two other risk factors must be mentioned: biomanipulation and artificial intelligence. Both can lead to experiments that go too far and have disastrous consequences.
Sooner or later, the climate disaster will lead to mass migration, writes Gaia Vince in her current book Nomad Century. This can also lead to chaos and collapse.
I admit that it is easy to accuse me of exaggerating or inciting panic. But I believe and hope that humanity’s survival instincts will promote preventive actions that will secure the future of the Earth.
Pär Stenbäck
Translated by Daniel Westö
Pär Stenbäck is a former Finnish politician who has been a Member of Parliament, Minister of Education and Minister of Foreign Affairs before 1985. For 20 years, he held leadership positions in the Red Cross movement, including as Secretary General of the Red Cross. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (Geneva). He is a founding member of ICG and the European Cultural Parliament ECP. He received the honorary title of minister in 1999. Today, he has been the chairman of the Finnish New Foreign Policy Society (NUPS) since 2017. He regularly participates in the media.