Is Portugal one of the 13 European Union countries with a negative natural balance? Yes, confirm
“It is noteworthy that 14 European Union (EU) countries have a positive natural balance”, published on August 23, based on a graph showing the population balance of several European countries between January 1, 2011 and 1 January 2021.
After Portugal appears on the chart with a negative natural balance (in relation to this period), unlike most other European countries, the author of the publication quips: “In fact, it is not inevitable to have such a bad birth rate policy .”
Now, the data (and the graph) cited in the publication under analysis are part of the fifth edition of the study “Key figures in Europe” relative to 2022 and released on July 14th by the Eurostat study office. Before we go into the study, however, it is important that “natural balance” is not the equivalent of the population growth rate. Statistics help concepts:
“Natural Balance: Difference between the number of live and the number of deaths, in a given period of time; Effective Growth Rate: Population variation observed during a specified period of time, normally a calendar year, referred to the average population of that period.”
Returning to the document, and going beyond the conversions regarding the terms, Eurostat highlights that, between 1 January 2011 and the same day in 2021, the population of the European Union grew by 7.3 million (1.7%). The population growth rate during this period was highest in Malta and Luxembourg, with the population growing by around a quarter (24.4% and 24% respectively).
But not only in these countries has the population grown: looking solely and exclusively at European Union countries, such as Sweden, Ireland Cyprus, Austria and Belgium register relatively positive rates of effective population growth.
On the other hand, at the bottom of the graph, the largest percentage declines in terms of population were recorded in Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Greece, Portugal and Hungary. Also in these countries, Eurostat points out that the decrease in population was encouraged by total migration.
In Portugal, show the data compiled by the by dateat least since 2009 that Portugal’s natural balance is consecutively negative, that is, more people are dying than are born. In that year, the balance was still -4,943, but since 2013 (-23,767) it has surpassed a barrier of -20 thousand and, in 2021, even reached -45,220.