Survey: Unexpected result of the elections in Prague. How would other cities fare?
The Phoenix Research agency, which conducted a pre-election survey in selected regional towns and Prague, provided information on how the municipal elections would turn out if they were held now. A very strong position is held by the ANO movement, which achieved an unexpectedly good result in Prague as well. On the contrary, the main favorite in the capital, which is TOGETHER, fell far short of expectations in the survey.
Prague
In the capital, there is a lot of betting on TOGETHER. According to political scientist Lukáš Valeš, it was generally expected that he would climb up to 40% and do without a coalition partner, or that he would need only one and completely dominate the Prague scene. However, according to the survey by the Phoenix agency, the reality is a little different (see table), TOTAL reached 26.5%.
“If it really turned out that way, it would be quite interesting,” Valeš commented on the survey results for TN.cz. It seems that ODS and TOP 09 are losing support even in their main stronghold. “This will probably be mainly due to government involvement,” explains the political scientist.
Selected political groups in Prague | Result – August (in %) |
Result – July (in %) |
YES | 17.1 | 19.3 |
TOGETHER for Prague (ODS, KDU-ČSL, TOP 09) | 26.5 | 33.7 |
TENT | 3.7 | 4.3 |
Pirates | 9.1 | 7.2 |
Prague to yourself | 15.6 | 12.7 |
Solidarity (ČSSD, Greens, Future, Idealists) | 3.1 | 4.1 |
SPD, Tricolor, PES Movement and independents together for Prague | 3.1 | X |
KSČM | 1.5 | 2.5 |
The Mayors have a very bad result, but according to Valeš, this is not too surprising considering the Dosimeter case, the epicenter of which was precisely in Prague. It can be expected that STAN will fare worse in this year’s elections in the capital than in other municipalities.
On the contrary, Prague received more than 15% in the survey, which is a very respectable result. “In my opinion, they mainly benefit from the inability to compete. Along with STAN, Piráti and TOP 09, they compete for the same voters, but they are not accompanied by corruption scandals, as is the case with STAN,” Valeš explained.
The YES movement won a surprisingly strong result in Prague. The political scientist believes that it is because the national preferences overlap with the municipal ones in the case of the Prague municipality. Even in Prague, ANO collects protest votes from people who are dissatisfied with the government’s engagement.
At the same time, according to him, ANO took over voters from KSČM or ČSSD, people are betting on certainty. As for the bad result of the SPD, it is not surprising according to political science.
“The SPD movement has never had a bed of roses in Prague. Its voters are rather recruited from socially weaker strata in areas such as northern Moravia and northern Bohemia,” explained Valeš.
Ostrava
Ostrava is one of the mentioned areas where ANO and SPD have strong support, which is also proven by the results in the table below. According to Valeš, it is a direct proportion.
“Where people live well, they mostly support right-wing entities. Conversely, in areas where, for example, there is a high rate of foreclosures, typically the Ústí and Karlovy Vary regions, ANO has 40% and SPD up to 18%. These are the localities where these two parties protest anti-system votes. That’s where they have their voters,” he explained.
Selected political groups in Ostrava | Result – August (in %) | Result – July (in %) |
YES | 31.6 | 34.3 |
TOGETHER (ODS, KDU-ČSL, TOP 09) | 11.2 | 11.3 |
Mayors for Ostrava | 4.7 | 4.2 |
Pirates | 9.2 | 8.7 |
SPD | 8.0 | 7.9 |
Ostravak | 9.9 | 9.8 |
ČSSD and the LEČO movement | 5.6 | X |
Brno
In Brno, the ANO movement does not have the strongest position, but the difference between the ranking of the first and second groups is relatively small. TOGETHER, composed of ODS and TOP 09, has a lead of only four percent.
Selected political groups in Brno | Result – August (in %) | Result – July (in %) |
YES | 21.2 | 19.8 |
TOGETHER – ODS and TOP 09 | 25.3 | 28.2 |
Citizens and Mayors (KDU-ČSL, STAN) | 6.3 | 6.8 |
Green and Live Brno with the support of idealists | 4.6 | 5.1 |
Pirates | 10.3 | 9.1 |
ČSSD YOUR MAYORS | 5.6 | 5.8 |
SPD, TRIKOLORA, MORAVANS and independents | 5.1 | X |
Pilsen
In Pilsen, it’s the other way around. The YES movement has the upper hand here, but the second coalition TOGETHER has only three percent less.
Selected political groups in Pilsen | Result – August (in %) | Result – July (in %) |
YES + independent | 28.4 | 27.9 |
TOGETHER (ODS, KDU-ČSL, TOP 09) | 25.4 | 28.6 |
TENT | 7.2 | 7.3 |
Pirates | 9.6 | 8 |
SPD | 5.7 | 5.4 |
Pilsen in the heart (ČSSD and independent candidates) | 4.5 | 3.7 |
Liberec
In Liberec, a traditionally strong position is held by the Mayors for the Liberec Region, which is a group from which, for example, the current governor of the Liberec Region, Martin Půta, emerged. The election was decided together with TOP 09 and KDU-ČSL, and together they would now win over 26%.
Selected political groups in Liberec | Result – August (in %) | Result – July (in %) |
YES | 23.4 | 22.3 |
ODS together with Sportovci | 14.9 | 8.8 |
Mayors for the Liberec region + TOP 09 + KDU-ČSL | 26.1 | 26.2 |
Pirates | 7.6 | 7.4 |
SPD | 5.0 | 5.1 |
CSSD | 3.7 | 3.5 |
The Phoenix agency conducted a survey in the period from 7/20 to 8/12 of this year. A total of 1016 respondents took part in it.
Municipal elections will not take place in some municipalities:
TN.cz