“The Central Bank predicts two years of recession in Russia”
Inflation in 2022 is expected to be at the level of 12-15%, in accordance with the main directions of the monetary policy of the Central Bank. By 2025, it is planned to return the key supply to a guarantee of 5-6% per annum.
Updated at 16:18
central bank introduced forecast for the development of the Russian economy for the next three years. Inflation is projected at 12-15% this year, with a decline to 5-7% in 2023 and 4% by 2024.
GDP, according to the forecast, will be negative in the coming year, and reaching levels of 1.5-2.5% is expected by 2024. comments investment strategist of Arikapital Management Company Sergey Suverov:
— Making long-term forecasts is a risky business. The Central Bank reviews its forecasts from time to time, but I would not say that the Central Bank forecasts are too optimistic, it predicts two years of recession in Russia. The exit to a positive trajectory of the economy is only in two years. But, probably, there is a reasonable grain in this, but in fact what is happening now has very important consequences for the economy: the loss of basic Western technologies, the loss of knowledge-intensive individual industries. This is happening to the expected consequences in terms of the beautiful manufacturability of the Russian economy, which will more and more lag behind Western countries. Therefore, I think that the Central Bank will not revise its forecasts yet, but for now Russia is really waiting for two years of recession.
– With such indicators of supply, the key rate, and so on, what should be the exchange rate of the ruble?
– The ruble exchange rate should be significantly lower than now, the ruble should reflect the negative situation in the Russian economy. In addition, the reduction in the key rate increased the increased value of the Russian currency for speculators, but the importance of the support of the ruble has recently increased, is the balance sheet, it increased compared to the balance sheet, increased compared to last year and [показателями] trade balance, provided the prerequisites for a strong ruble. But taking into account the situation in the economy, the level of the key rate and the high degree of inflation that depreciates the ruble, I believe that a reasonable exchange rate should be about 70-80 rubles per dollar.
At the same time, the Central Bank is seriously afraid of a global recession. According to the regulator, sustainable supply at a higher level in the higher economy may be due to the specifics of reduced consumption, including for Russian exports. Vitaly Isakov, Investment Director of Otkritie Management Company, suggests evaluating such a scenario not as a baseline, but as a negative one:
Vitaly Isakov Investment Director, Otkritie Management Company increased prices for raw materials, like the current recession, but still recessions in the United States, there have been several of them over the past 50 years, it does not work out to a strong and long
According to the regulator, the key rate in 2023 is calculated from 6.5% to 8.5%, in 2024 it will decrease to 6-7%, and by 2025 to 5-6%.