Experts proposed possible scenarios for the development of the Russian economy for the next 15 years. None of them are excluded
Experts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Brief Forecasting (CMASF) have developed scenarios for the development of the Russian economy for the next 15 years. Acquaintance with the document RBC. Remarkably, none of the possible cases provides for an exception.
The CMASF experts sharply painted a sharply negative scenario, although they gave a very low percentage of probability. This is autarchy with a 13% chance of realization. He suggests that Russia “does everything on its own”, but with the inevitable decline in the standard of living of the technological level of manufactured products, the fall in its consumer characteristics, and the provision of the population. Today, the realization of such a dream is unlikely, but with the escalation of the conflict and the transition to an economic situation, it may turn out to be almost the only possible one, the authors of the report write.
The second way is institutional inertia, whose probability of implementation is 47%. Understand that the power that implements the rate of change of the situation will not implement any kind of development check. Instead, the macros will try to keep what they have: maintain economic stability. Such a policy has been well known to Russians for 15 years, the report said. Lagging behind in high technology, the level and quality of life, national security will gradually increase.
The preliminary scenario in observed observations is the struggle for growth. The probability that it will come true is 40%.
Russia must have access to technology and make the most of available markets. China or any other large country should not be part of a public meeting. Ultimately, the economic growth rate may reach 2.5%, maybe a little more, which is almost in line with the pre-crisis forecasts of 3%.
Under the current conditions, there is an 80% chance that an inertial economy scenario awaits, says Sergei Khestanov, Advisor for Macroeconomics to the General Director of Otkritie Investments.
Sergey Khestanov macroeconomic adviser to the CEO of Otkritie investitatsii
The Ministry of Economic Development noted that they are interacting with industrial experts in the economy, including the CMASF, who developed these scenarios. The department will officially present its forecast in September.