Red Wings Sweden Connection still provides the best prospects
The Swedish Hockey League (SHL) is one of the most competitive hockey leagues in the world and is just behind the NHL. That being said, it is the best environment for prospects to round out their game before moving up to the NHL level of play. Other major hockey leagues that serve as a similar springboard are the American Hockey League (AHL) and the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL). So what makes the SHL stand out, especially when it comes to the prospects of the Detroit Red Wings?
There are 14 teams in the SHL spanning Sweden and the most famous to Wings fans are Frolunda HC and Rogle BK which produced talents such as Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond. Of all current Red Wings prospects in the system, 19 are European, while 21 are North American. Four prospects play in the SHL; Theodor Niederbach, William Wallinder and Marco Kasper with Rogle BK and Liam Dower Nilsson with Frolunda HC.
Crisis numbers
The speed and size of the SHL game is very comparable to that of the NHL. In the SHL, the ice measures 30 by 60 meters (98.42 feet by 196.85) for a total area of approximately 18,701.86 square feet. North American ice is slightly smaller at 85 by 200 feet, with an approximate area of 16,327 square feet. Not that this is a monumental difference in terms of gameplay, but players coming out of the SHL know how to navigate large sheets of ice with speed, which helps their game translate to the NHL a little more smoothly.
Each SHL season consists of 52 games played in a round-robin format. Compared to the 82-game NHL season, it seems very short, but since there are only 13 other teams for each team to play, it’s enough. The AHL is the second longest season of these four leagues, with 72 games played between 32 teams. Finally, the KHL consists of 22 teams, with each team playing 56 games. The length of the season is important to note but does not take away from the competitiveness of the respective leagues.
One way to see how the leagues are doing would be to refer to NHL Equivalency Model (NHLe). This model, first developed by Gabriel Desjardins and then refined by many sources, including Patrick Bacon and CJ Turtoro, gives a point in any league around the world a value on the scale of an NHL point based on how players historically has scored. To calculate this for an individual player, you would work out how many points per game the player got and multiply that by the equivalent for the respective league. Then multiply that number by the number of games in the NHL season (82) to arrive at the final NHLe.
To determine which league is the best stepping stone to the NHL, this model is a great tool to use. I find it safe to assume that non-Russian prospects usually come out of the SHL and AHL, while Russian prospects come out of the KHL – so the SHL and AHL are most relevant when it comes to the vast majority of prospects. On a scale of one NHL point, the KHL corresponds to 0.772, the SHL is 0.566 and the AHL is 0.389. So for most prospects, the NHLe model suggests the SHL is the best stepping stone into the NHL based on parity.
European Scouting: The Key to Success
It can now be established that Steve Yzerman seems to favor European prospects over those from North America. A large part of that bias may be the scouts he works with, such as Håkan Andersson. Andersson is the director of European Scouting for the Red Wings and has been with the organization since 1990. He is the person to thank for continued success for Swedish players in Detroit, including having played a role in drafting Nicklas Lidström.
Related: Red Wings Håkan Andersson – From fishing guide to scouting guru
In addition to amassing a host of talented Swedes, another claim to fame for Andersson is his ability to find late-stage gems. Most famously, he is known for taking Pavel Datsyuk in the sixth round of the 1998 NHL Draft 171st overall. Having a scouting director like him in the Red Wings organization has been key to getting the team through tough times where they lacked some premium draft picks but still needed to build a team. While the Red Wings have had more of these premium or higher round picks of late, there is a fair amount of time spent looking at the players who aren’t ranked as high in the draft projections.
The Sweden-Detroit connection
Part of what makes me think the SHL is the perfect “prep” step for the NHL is the quality of the prospects that come out of it. From the two superstar rookies for the 2021-22 season to those in the upcoming season, the talent coming out of this league is undeniable. Let’s take a look at some of the latest prospects who have been turning heads in the Red Wings world.
Moritz Seider
Seider spent his 2020-21 season with Rogle BK of the SHL on loan from the Red Wings after playing with the Grand Rapids Griffins of the AHL the previous season. Going from the AHL to the SHL is an interesting path, but it obviously set him up for a successful rookie season in the NHL. While playing for Rogle BK, he was not only named SHL defenseman of the year, but also continuously shut down some of the best players in the league.
“In the playoffs against that team [Frolunda HC]and a guy like Joel [Lundqvist] wants to get his team going and he’s trying to take a little extra physicality against Mo — yeah, that stood out to me, too, and everybody else,” said Cam Abbott, the coach. “He decided at that point that he was going to physically dominate Joel and the rest of that team in that series.”
– Max Bultman, “Inside Moritz Seider’s season with Rögle, where sauna, dance and hard hits reigned,” The Athletic, 22/9/21
His time in the SHL built the trust that Seider developed in North America both on and off the ice. The confidence to play a remarkably physical game against respected veterans twice his age and to be himself in the dressing room and strengthen team chemistry with a smile came to him in Sweden. Playing in the AHL was a great start for the 18/19-year-old Seider, but the SHL is what honed him into the future Calder winner of the 2021-22 NHL season.
Simon Edvinsson
Simon Edvinsson is looking to fight his way into a spot for the 2022-2023 season and is one of the latest stars to be pulled from the SHL. Drafted 6th overall in the 2021 NHL Draft, the 6-foot-6 defenseman played 44 games for Frolunda HC this past season with a plus-13 rating. He will likely join the Red Wings blue line this fall coming off another impressive season. With silky mitts and smooth steps, he can cover the defensive zone with ease and translate his style of play to the offensive zone. Two-way defensemen have been a hot commodity on the draft market lately, and this Swede is a pretty sweet addition to the Red Wings prospect pool.
With just one full SHL season under his belt and seemingly NHL ready, Edvinsson is a great example of how this league is the best stepping stone. He has had an opportunity to use his hockey IQ against veteran opponents while continuously developing his puck handling and defensive abilities. His style of play will have a fairly seamless transition to the NHL level as he has played at a similar level in Sweden. Similar to Seider just over a year ago, Edvinsson is ready to make a monumental difference for the Red Wings’ defense.
Elmer Söderblom
Now this player is the true definition of a hidden gem that was unearthed by Andersson and the other Red Wings scouts. Elmer Söderblom was a sixth round pick in the 2019 NHL Draft and has proven to be an absolutely solid pick for the Red Wings. There’s the general perception that late-round picks are more unlikely to pan out for the NHL, but being able to develop in the SHL over the past three seasons has put him in position to be on the fringes of the Red Wings roster.
It’s not every day that you see an absolutely massive forward who can set up goals with not just brute force, but skilled finesse. Söderblom led Frölunda HC in goals last season and ended up in a four-way tie for the most goals across the SHL with a whopping 21. From goal shooting, to club handling, to overall hockey IQ – having a future like him in the Red Wings system is huge for this the team’s future. While he may end up with the Grand Rapids Griffins for a season or two to strengthen certain aspects of his game, he is another undeniable talent produced by the SHL that will look good in Detroit.
Speculation station: Where will Kasper play?
There was little chatter about where Marco Kasper will spend his 2022-23 season. Recently, he confirmed that he will play with Rogle BK in the SHL, shutting down rumors that he was going to the Ontario Hockey League (OHL). So why is staying in the SHL significantly better for his development as a player in terms of NHL readiness?
First, the OHL is a few steps behind the SHL in terms of level of play and competitiveness. The OHL is still a great league, coming in at number 10 in the “Top 10 Best Ice Hockey Leagues” rankings, but it’s just not quite the sweet spot for the Red Wings’ prospect development right now. There are three Red Wings prospects currently playing in the OHL, including Amadeus Lombardi, Tnias Mathurin and Pasquale Zito; but neither is likely to lay out a case for an NHL roster spot anytime soon. Playing in the AHL or SHL allows a player like Kasper to play against a higher caliber of veteran opponents; which better prepares them for what they would see at the NHL level.
Circling back to the NHL’s equivalence model, let’s see how Kasper would fare in each league. In the 2021-22 SHL season with Rogle BK, Kasper put up 11 points (seven goals, four assists) through 46 games, which is 0.24 points per game played. Using the SHL equivalency points of 0.57 would translate to 11 NHL points. Say Kasper had played the same exact season with number of games and points, but in the OHL it would only be an NHLe of two points using the OHL equivalence point of 0.14. This is by no means an accurate prediction of how play in each league would set him up for NHL success, but it’s definitely exciting to watch.
In the end, there is no certain or defined best step ahead of the NHL, but the SHL makes a pretty good case for why it deserves that title. Specifically, when looking at the Red Wings, some of the best players in franchise history have come from playing hockey in Sweden. Nicklas Lidström and Henrik Zetterberg both played in the Swedish Elite League (now SHL) and seemed to have set a precedent for that league going forward. The Red Wings’ European scouting behind Andersson has given the prospect pool much-needed talent depth, especially in recent years. Going forward, both scouts and fans will keep a sharp eye on Swedish prospects and others who play in the SHL. The prospect pipeline Sweden-Detroit is certainly one to compete with.
Delaney Rimer writes about the Detroit Red Wings for THW bringing a fresh perspective to the hockey scene as a young woman in the industry. She previously wrote for Octopus Thrower – a Detroit Red Wings fan blog.