In July, plug-in electric vehicles took a market share of 50.1% in Sweden, up from 37.6% year-on-year. Total auto market volume was 17,834 units, up 6% year-on-year, but still about 25% down from pre-pandemic July norms. The best-selling all-electric was the Volkswagen ID.4.

July’s combined plug-in share of 50.1% was made up of 26.3% fully electric (BEVs) and 23.8% plug-in hybrids. This can be compared with 15.1% and 22.5% respectively in July 2021.

So far this year, BEVs account for about 27% of the market and PHEVs 24%. Their respective 2021 YTD performances were 13.2% (BEV) and 26.5% (PHEV). Ongoing incentive changes, particularly those starting from August 2021, have seen BEVs reverse the previous dominance of PHEVs.

Against the backdrop of a 15% YTD decline in overall automotive market volume, plugin volumes have increased around 11% YTD, underpinning their strong relative share growth.

All other types of powertrains have decreased their share over the past 12 months, including plug-in hybrids (8.4%, from 9.7% year-on-year and from a peak of 23% in November 2020). Diesels reached their lowest share of the modern era, at just 11% (from 15.3% y/y) and 1,965 units (from 2,562 y/y). Diesels should drop more or less permanently below 10% share by the end of this year.

Sweden’s BEV bestseller

The Volkswagen ID.4 took Sweden’s BEV top spot in July, following its overall lead in 2021. The MG ZS and Kia EV6 took 2nd and 3rd places.

The Kia Niro, normally in the top 3, and still in the lead in 2022 YTD, had an unusually quiet month in July, probably due to being in the middle of a design refresh.

Given capricious deliveries, a single month’s results don’t tell us too much, but we can note some new players. The MG5 – one of the most affordable BEVs in Europe – came out of nowhere to take 6th place. Its sibling the MG Marvel R also did well, coming in 7th, as did the MG ZS, in 2nd.

Overall, MG took the top brand spot in July, just ahead of Volkswagen (a reversal of their July 2021 positions). This is a fantastic result for a BEV brand that only started delivering in Sweden last year. If MG can continue to supply all 3 models in decent volume to Sweden, it should enter the top 3 brands for the full year 2022 (from 4th in 2021, despite only being in service during Q2 and Q3).

The new Renault Megane had its first month of volume deliveries in Sweden, with 98 units, in 18th place. Expect it to continue to grow in volume, despite the tight segment. The Volkswagen ID.5 (a coupe-back variant of the ID.4), which began shipping in May, continued to ramp up and has just climbed into the top 20 for the first time (14th, as of June 24th).

Now let’s take a longer view and focus on the trailing 3-month performance:

The BEV models in the top 3 for May-July are the same as in February-April, albeit with a slight mix of positions. The Niro dropped from 1st to 3rd, and the other two filled the gap. Further down the ranks, there were some notable improvements compared to the previous period:

Other models saw the opposite fate, dropping significantly since 3 months ago:

It is worth remembering that periodic volume variations, especially in smaller markets, often simply reflect temporary regional allocation decisions rather than significant changes in demand. Most BEVs sold in Europe experience more demand than supply and have long waiting lists.

Sight

The plug-in share growth pattern for 2022 has roughly matched that seen last year, with the Q1 and Q2 peaks still just below the previous Q4 peak. We can expect to see new ground broken in September, somewhere between 60% and 70% share, all else being equal.

However, we live in uncertain times, and here’s what Mobility Sweden has to say about the country’s car market:

“Supply issues continue to impact the market, with overall consumer demand still outstripping the supply of vehicles. The major disruptions in global supply chains continue to hit the automotive industry hard. We assess that this year’s decline can mainly be attributed to the limited supply, although in recent months we have seen a certain slowdown in the strong demand due to the economic situation” (Mattias Bergman, CEO Mobility Sweden, machine translated).

Even with general economic pressures and supply chain uncertainty, plugins’ significant energy cost savings and better long-term residual values ​​still make them relatively attractive compared to non-plugins. The large backlog of BEV orders waiting to be fulfilled in the coming months will also help ensure that plugins continue to increase their share in 2022.

What are your thoughts on the development of Sweden’s car market? Join the discussion below to share your thoughts and perspectives.

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