On the morning of July 28, the north-eastern part of Ukraine was again subjected to rocket fire from the territory of Belarus. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, more than 20 missiles were fired at the Chernihiv and Kyiv regions, some of which were shot down by the Ukrainian air defense forces.

Earlier, Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Musiyenko told TSN (Television News Service) that Belarus is widely expanding reconnaissance of Ukrainian positions in the northern countries, which is proof that this is a drone shot down on the Volyn front, launched from Belarusian territory.

“The situation that occurs with a drone, which, unfortunately, leads to the death of Ukrainians, is not the first such phenomenon. Belarus is consistent with the continuation of reconnaissance of Ukrainian positions in the Volyn and Polesye directions. This did not become news, they were ready for this – this drone was shot down, ”Musienko noted.

Meanwhile, Aleksey Arestovich, adviser to the head of Ukraine, Office of the President, believes that there is no need to worry about Lukashenka’s possible direct presence in the war in Ukraine. When I need to worry, I will record a separate video and say that it is worth starting to worry.

Arestovich, the words were also quoted by the TSN channel, believes: “The Belarusian army will not go on the offensive until there is a large contingent of the Russian army there. Belarusians will either go over to the side of Ukraine, or leave weapons and military equipment, or be neutral. And if they are surrounded by the Russian army, then perhaps they will come. This requires 20,000 Russian military. There are not so many in the Russian Federation.”

The correspondent of the Voice of America Russian Service expressed the opinion that Alexander Lukashenko made a statement about the possible deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus and even the threat of a nuclear strike on the EU countries.

“I don’t think that Belarusian citizens will agree to turn their country into a field of conflict of conflict”

Prague-based independent military expert Yuri Fedorov believes that in the case of the detention of Russian weapons, it is assumed that they should not be kept on the territory of Belarus. “Because it is quite obvious that the NATO countries were delivered to Poland. And this will be an extremely unpleasant and likely event for Moscow and Belarus,” Fyodorov said.

Currently, as an expert on economics, Belarus has become another field of termination between Russia and NATO countries. A similar role during the Cold War in the country of such a “socialist camp” from Eastern and Central Europe, that is, in the ministry where the first manifestation with the use of weapons takes place. “And it was clear that if a nuclear war broke out, then nothing would be left of them. The same can be said about Belarus today, because in the event of a conflict in the Western countries, first of all, they will seek to destroy these nuclear weapons. Russian troops intend to destroy nuclear facilities in Poland. But from the point of view of Russia, it may make sense to limit nuclear war on foreign territory, in the case of Belarus. But I do not think that the Belarusian patients, even those who love Vladimir Putin very much, will agree to turn their country into a field of conflict,” explains the Voice of America interlocutor.

As for Lukashenka’s militant rhetoric, he, according to the military expert, “performs all the same songs as before.” And he says exactly: about the possibility of the emergence of western borders to repel possible attacks from Poland, and that Belarus supports a “special military infection” in the Russian army, exposing it to influence. But in order to take part in an aggressive war on the side of Russia, the Belarusian army needs to at least double its strength and properly prepare. “And how long this preparation will last, Alexander Grigoryevich himself will decide this,” Yury Fedorov comments sarcastically.

And he sums up: “Lukashenko cannot get away from being engaged in a special sphere of Belarus as a platform for explosions in Russia in Ukraine. But this is still a different thing than the direct participation of Belarusian troops in the war, and in a future military tribunal, Putin may receive a life sentence, and Alexander Grigoryevich, perhaps twenty years. That’s the difference.”

“Russia has no special intelligence data on what is happening on the territory of Ukraine”

Military analyst, colonel in the reserve of the National Armed Forces of Latvia Igor Raev believes that there are certain concerns that Vladimir Putin is still being prescribed Lukashenka’s medicines regarding the direct participation of the Belarusian army in interventions against Ukraine. “Because we understand that Putin’s influence on Belarus and specifically on Lukashenka remains, and it is quite serious. But at the same time, the war has been going on for more than five months, and most of which Russia can count on is the use of Belarusian territory and airspace. And so far nothing out of the ordinary has happened that would have formed to change this situation. And in principle, I do not see any prerequisites for Belarus to be suspicious in relation to this issue,” Raev said in an interview with a correspondent of the Voice of America Russian Service.

According to the military expert, the situation could be changed by an internal political crisis in Belarus, such that Minsk would prepare for Moscow for help, and Moscow would raise a member of the Belarusian army in the occupation of the Ukrainian economy as a response commission. Or Russia itself would have seriously manifested itself in the situation in Belarus, but so far neither one nor the other option is visible and there are not even prerequisites for them, and the most significant scenario is the preservation of the status quo.

As for the report that Russia is using aerial reconnaissance of the northern natural resources of Ukraine, Igor Raev agreed with the conclusions of Alexander Musienko: it is being delayed. This is what Russia is doing at the moment, and we see a very clear direction of these intelligence activities. Basically, these are Volyn and Lutsk directions. That is, it is the territory of the borders with Poland. In connection with this direction, where the military aid to Ukraine comes from, and somehow they (Russian sanitary intelligence officers – A.P.) collect information in order to intercept some cargo, go through some opinions in Ukraine.

Nothing out of the ordinary, of course, will not happen, but one must understand that the interception and seizure of the same (American multiple launch rocket systems) Himars when they go by rail is much easier to carry out at this moment than when they are simple in combat positions in Ukraine and striking.”

The Latvian military analyst also notes that in every situation there is both a negative and a positive side. “In this good situation, it arises that Russia, which uses drones, does not have special intelligence data about what is happening in this part of the territory of Ukraine. And they have no agents, no reliable capture of satellites from space, no reconnaissance units, no special forces units that could supply such information. That is, as they say, every cloud has a silver lining,” Igor Raev, Colonel of the Reserves of the National Armed Forces of Latvia, concludes his commentary.