The grain of sovereignty. What prevents Russia from becoming a wheat superpower
Russia is gaining wheat momentum
Russian agro-industry is stable adding share of cereals in the sown area and increase .
Even the cessation of the past agricultural season due to the pandemic did not seriously worsen. In 2021, farmers harvested about 121 million tons of crops, of which more than half are wheat.
For 2022, the president announced a record crop consumption of 130 million tons, of which 87 million tons is wheat. In July forecasts analysts “Rusagro” even higher figure. As a misfortune, Andrey Sizov, director of the consulting company SovEcon, in the first weeks of July, in essence, whether the forecasts for the harvest will come true, but so far there is every chance to really show maximum results.
With such production indicators, Russia completely absorbs food grain and year by year of addition .
bloomberg a familythat in 20 years Russia has transformed from an importer of wheat into an exporter. By the senses edition, edition in 2020, Russia fed grain to more than 100 countries, and in 2021, according to data Ministry of Agriculture, there were already 150. At the same time, RF an association interception of a part of casual buyers in the EU and the USA, for example, in Egypt and Algeria.
In 2022, due to the geopolitical situation, Russian exporters faced logistical difficulties and additional costs. For some time, the threat of coverage from Europe and the United States is excluded above them. But, most likely, farmers will be given the opportunity to send grain to buyers. At the end of June, the G7 countries debts not to introduce a sentence against Russian agricultural products. Formerly UN requested avoid such restrictions.
In order to prevent a sharp increase in distortions and overflows in exports, the decrease in the spring season slowed down the export product (including wheat) in the EAEU country. It is forbidden to operate until August 31, except for the owner who has a special license.
But the EAEU was not an accidental buyer of the Russian Federation, so the ban did not prevent the country in May 2022 sell 2 times more wheat than in May 2021. The greatest consumer preferences were in Egypt, Turkey and Greece, Mikhail Khachaturyan, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Management and Innovation of the Financial Department under the Government of the Russian Federation, also noted.
But not everything is so good. There are very serious obstacles on the way to a similar wheat rack
Climate
Unlike many more stable systems the agricultural sector depends on many unpleasant sensationsincluding natural factors.
Meteorology and climatology experts statedthat in Russia it is warming on average 2.5 times faster than in other countries. Because, firstly, in Russia a huge mass absorbs land, and a very small mass absorbs heat. Secondly, 2/3 of the countries are located in the polar regions, which began to warm faster than others. This also indicates that increased risk of droughts. And they are critical for the development of agriculture.
In October 2020, farmers allocatedthat in the Voronezh region arose only on half of the sown areas, because the impact did not work. In November, they already said that almost 90% of them would have problems from the field. . Spring 2021 perished a third of the crops, they had to be sown again. There were similar harvest problems in other regions. Zhalova on the loss of crops and Tatarstan, and Bashkiria, and the Ulyanovsk region.
According to Denis Skripka, head of the development department at Digital Agro, Russian farmers take into account climatic factors and learn to adapt to the average annual temperature and general weather phenomena. They select varieties for climate conditions, plan the necessary technological processes. For example, heat and drought reduce the wheat harvest, but may raise it even above the originally predicted level.
But farmers cannot do anything with local and ultra-local changes in temperature and nature during the day or hours, that is, touch the field values. Here, seed selection is needed (more on this below) or deficiency reclamation: technologies are needed, for example, algorithms for short-term weather forecasting at specific points on demand. But technologies based on “Luddism”: according to experts, not all agronomists significantly expand innovations.
Rising prices for fertilizers
In March 2021, analysts fixed growth of world prices for mineral fertilizers: for six months they have risen in price up to 100%, depending on the type. One of the reasons is that it contains a lot of gas in the quantities it contains, and its quotes in 2021 put one record after another and the energy crisis.
In addition, in Europe last year surprise the number of dozens of factories producing fertilizers and components for their manufacture. Analysts assumedthat the problem will be brought up for several more years.
Russian farmers had no serious reasons to worry about the spring sowing road in 2022. Purchase of fertilizers until February walked as a whole according to the plan. Under this country, mineral fertilizers can be completely processed, spoke Vice-President of the Russian Grain Association Alexander Korbut.
But in the winter of 2022, agricultural enterprises (primarily small enterprises) started ringing the bell about the deficit . She had to wait until the fall of 2021, but she was waiting for beautiful prices – they did not wait.
Lack of ammonium nitrate is risk get 25–50% less than the grain harvest forecast. There are no absolute products for this fertilizer, and those that are, require additional equipment, which still needs to be purchased (which is now extremely problematic).