Why Sweden and Finland join NATO is completely logical
Ole! At this week’s summit in Madrid, NATO members began the formal process of adding Finland and Sweden to the alliance. The whole process can take about a year, as each member nation must independently ratify the accession of those who apply membership.
NATO has been active for over eight decades. So why are Finland and Sweden only now looking at Join? The answer is not as simple as it may seem.
The simple answer is Putin’s invasion of Ukraine – and the sober realization that Russia’s ambitions did not end there. Putin’s “special” operation would only be the first step in resuming all post-Soviet states, regaining control of Central Europe and watching NATO disintegrate into a fragile, frightened shell of its former self. Sweden and Finland realized that if Putin could realize his vision, it would at best leave them alone, isolated and under his shadow, or at worst drawn into World War III.
Admittedly, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a change in the way everyday Finns and Swedes viewed NATO membership. For years, large majorities had opposed joining the alliance. Some thought it was not necessary, especially after the fall of the Soviet Union. Russia, they thought, would be a kinder, milder neighbor. Others feared joining the club could incur Russia’s anger. Neat and neutral seemed to be the standard option.
In February, however, European complacency melted down over the fact that the continent would never face the threat of another major war faster than a slump in the Sahara.
Still, Why NATO?
A look at a map partially answers that question. Putin could not move forward in northern Europe without going through the Nordic countries. If the war expanded, they would be part of it in one way or another.
However, there is more than that. To begin with, Ukraine has reinforced the notion that increased nuclear deterrence works. Despite all his outrage at retaliation against NATO nations that have the audacity to support Ukraine’s self-defense, Putin has not extended the war. At the same time, NATO has carefully refused to become an active warrior and avoided the possibility of a direct military conflict between armed nuclear superpowers. The American nuclear umbrella looks like a pretty good insurance.
As I said, just like during the Cold War (see North Korea and Vietnam), nuclear distance does not prevent conventional conflict. And when this war broke out, what Swedes and Finns saw was that a NATO nation did not back down from Article V, the commitment that an attack on an alliance partner is an attack on everyone. That promise included non-military member states, such as Iceland.
Thanks to US military strength, NATO has long been the most powerful military force on earth. And with the invasion of Ukraine, Sweden and Finland saw that many alliance members who had not lived up to their military commitments to the alliance (especially Germany) immediately increased their game. With the alliance’s power growing even stronger, membership became even more attractive.
In addition, just as Trump argued, for the alliance to be credible, every nation must do its fair share. In the wake of the attack on Ukraine, many nations, especially Germany, immediately agreed to intensify their military commitments.
Furthermore, the US response to the invasion of the Nordic countries, and also the rest of Europe, assured that America is not going anywhere. There is no pivot to Asia. In fact, the United States has put back more power in Europe since the Trump administration. The United States can not neglect to protect its interests in Europe more than that Sophie really had a choice.
What’s more, although Biden took office and wanted to remove Europe, Ukraine and Russia from his to-do list and acted as the main supporter from the beginning of the conflict, the United States is still the largest contributor to the military. aid to Ukraine, an important reason why the country could endure for more than a month. The reality is that the United States’ commitment to NATO has been lasting under all modern presidents – and when you have presidents as different as Biden and Trump, it really says something about American endurance.
There is another reason why the Nordic countries know that they can count on America sticking to NATO and Europe: NATO benefits a vital American interest. A peaceful and stable Europe contributes to giving the United States access to other parts of the world, critically denies strategic space for the harmful actions of Russia and China, and provides strategic partners that contribute to common defense and security.
The last point is really important. Adding Sweden and Finland to NATO makes it easier to defend the alliance’s northern flank. Both nations have robust military capabilities and decades of experience working with the United States and NATO. Far from being a “free ride” that would contribute a bit of military value, theirs entry into NATO will significantly strengthen regional security.
In short, the Nordic countries know that joining NATO makes the Alliance a much more valuable partner for the United States. This makes it even more likely that US commitment will remain strong and resilient, and it is the best security insurance they can claim.
Rarely is there a clear win-win in geopolitics. But Sweden and Finland have found an agreement that is good for them, good for NATO and good for the United States
A Heritage Foundation Vice President, James Jay Carafano leads the think tank’s research on issues of national security and foreign affairs. Carafano is also a contributing editor from 1945.