Hockey in numbers: How did the seasonal predictions turn out? HC Sparta Prague | Hokej.cz
Thanks to our Game Score model, we offered you predictions for all teams before the season. In the course of it, the prediction of individual matches and subsequently the playoff series. However, we will analyze how the model’s predictions turned out for each team separately.
Sparta was traditionally a big favorite to win the title at the beginning of the year. During the season, however, it did not fulfill these requirements for a long time, and the best teams only started to get closer in the second half. In the end, Sparta ended the regular season with 99 points in third place, in fourth place České Budějovice had top points.
With the third place, she secured a direct advance to the quarter-finals, in which she will face Liberec in a repeat of last year’s semi-final. This time, however, Sparta was more successful and rejoiced at the promotion after five games. In the semi-finals, the same result followed, i.e. 4:1 for the matches, České Budějovice was also eliminated, and Třinca faced off in the final. However, she was not enough for that in six matches and thus took silver medals.
Preseason prediction
At the start of the season, our model was a bit more pessimistic about Sparta than, for example, bookmakers. He ranked Sparta in fourth place with an average score of 92.1 points. With third place and a gain of 99 points, Sparta easily surpassed this prediction. It reached the fourth most frequent result, hovering around 100 points in 14% of simulations.
At the same time, Sparta had a very solid chance of placing among the best. Our model ranked her among the top four almost 50% of the time, and she reached the quarterfinals in more than three quarters of the simulations. Sparta had a 45% chance to advance to the top four in the playoffs and then one quarter to play in the finals.
From a statistical point of view, Sparta was among the best teams throughout the season. However, the first half was fought with worse performances by the goalkeepers, which quickly improved after the departure of Alexander Salák, when Matěj Machovský was one of the best goalkeepers in the extra league in the second half of the regular season and Sparta started to climb the table.
Just after the departure of Salák, Matěj Machovský was one of the best goalkeepers in #TELH.
He managed 15 matches in this period, in which he conceded 12 goals less. Július Hudáček conceded less than four goals in 8 starts.
Overall, does Machovský v belong to the top? pic.twitter.com/Ob7IK4vwZF
— ?? Ondřej Hudec (@hockey_hudyni) April 25, 2022
In a 5-on-5 game, however, Sparta had the upper hand for almost the entire year. And above all in the quality of the opportunities created. In fact, if we look at shooting attempts, Sparta was only in tenth place: on average, they created just under 51 attempts per 60 minutes, two more than their opponents.
However, Sparta had almost 20 of its attempts from the slot area, in this direction it was the most active overall. On the contrary, the opponents got only less than 16 shots from this area and Sparta had the third best difference.
The great choice of place and the creation of very good opportunities to shoot was also reflected in the fact that Sparta had the second best chances with 2.7 expected goals per 60 minutes. Opponents then created opportunities at 2.2 Expected Goals and Sparta had the fifth best differential with a plus 0.53 Expected Goals per hour of 5v5 play.
Sparta then clearly had the best goal production: they converted their chances into 2.94 scored goals, only Hradec and Pardubice have already exceeded the 2.5 goal mark. The opponents then scored two goals in the same time, and with a difference of nine tenths of a goal per hour of play, Sparta had the second best goal difference after Hradec’s Mountfield.
Sparta also confirmed its offensive power in power plays. In those, she created clearly the best opportunity, concretely at 9.1 expected goals, one more than the second best Komet, and turned it into 8.3 goals scored in 60 minutes. This placed Sparta in second place behind Třinec. In weakening, however, Sparta fell behind the best when they conceded 7.1 goals and were in tenth place.
Player performance
At Sparta, there is no other way to start than with Filip Chlapík, who offensively conquered the extra league. He was both the most productive player and the best scorer: he scored 70 points and 31 goals. He was the only player to surpass the 60-point and 30-goal mark. In 5-on-5 play, Chlapík was on the ice for 47 goals scored, the most of any player in the area, and only 23 conceded. He was also clearly the best player in the Game Score rating, when he had a value of 7.8 wins.
Michal Řepík joined Chlapík in the first five best scorers. He scored 24 goals and a total of 42 points, which ranked him 14th. In Game Score, the Sparta captain was worth 5.7 wins. Erik Thorell also had five wins, especially in the first half of the season, and although he slowed down in the second half, he was still among the top fifteen extra-league players overall.
But Sparta could also rely on Vladimír Sobotka or Roman Horák. From the backs, Michal Moravčík and Tomáš Pavelka, who were the best rated defenders in the model, performed excellently, both around 3.5 wins. Both also scored 26 points and were Sparta’s most productive guards.
Conclusion
After a weak start, Sparta was able to reach the ranks that were expected of it and its strengths were appropriate. In addition, it was deservedly on them, since it was among the best teams of this season.
In the end, she confirmed her position in the playoffs, where she reached the final. In this, however, he had to bow to Třinec, who was, of course, at least from the point of view of our model, the favorite, and the season can therefore be evaluated as a success from this point of view. However, anything but the title is a disappointment for Sparta.
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