In recent weeks, Russian propaganda has been threatening Lithuania with restrictions on the transit of some goods through Lithuania under EU sanctions.
Moscow had stated that the response to the transit restriction would not be diplomatic but practical, and the restriction of some goods in the propaganda media was called a blockade and the region was “unblocked” along the Suwalki corridor.
The Lithuanian authorities are currently consulting with the European Commission, which is preparing a clarification on the application of sanctions.
Brussels officials are considering proposing guidelines for using transit targets in the EU’s sanctions list, but Lithuanian government officials warn that the Kremlin could see this as a concession.
“We do not rule out provocations,” the interview said 15min said the Commander of the Lithuanian Armed Forces was asked whether Lithuanian military intelligence had indications of increased risks.
General V. Rupšys stated that Russia was provoking to seek to incite tension or uncertainty, and named the violation of airspace as a possible variant.
“There are no threats to the convention that (Russia) will take and attack now, intelligence shows.
But provocations to keep us tense demonstrate unpredictability – anything can happen. There may be a violation of our airspace or the like. All scenarios are possible, “said the Commander of the Armed Forces.
At the same time, V. Rupšys emphasized that at present there is no threat for Russia to launch a conventional attack in order to occupy the territory of Lithuania – Moscow does not have the capacity to do so and would not risk NATO’s response.
“There is no conventional threat of an attack with the aim of occupying and maintaining the territory. Russia does not have that capacity in Belarus or the Kaliningrad region to be able to.
Also, let’s get back to NATO. NATO is the guarantor Russia has to reckon with. I can only repeat the phrase of the President of France Emmanuel Macron: NATO is nuclear and Russia understands that very well, “said the head of the union’s army.
In recent days, Lithuanian authorities and businesses have been involved in cyber attacks on Russia.
Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks have been claimed by Killnet, a group of programmers linked to Russian intelligence.
She claims she is taking revenge for restricting the transit of authorized goods to the Krasnodar region.
The Royal Question
After Russia invaded Ukraine, Russian transit through Lithuania between the main part of Russia and the Königsberg region quickly became one of the key issues in the discussions in Vilnius. The Lithuanian authorities knew that Moscow was seriously analyzing the transit restriction scenario.
In the corridors of power, the principled position was taken not to act and to listen to one’s information and the position of Western Europeans.
When the European Union countries agreed to impose sanctions on steel in March, Lithuanian officials repeatedly discussed with the European Commission how they should affect the transit of goods through Lithuania to Karaliaučiai.
Lithuanians claim that they then received reassurance from Brussels officials that no exceptions are planned and that the goods will be transported through Lithuania. Such an explanation was also received in writing. The Lithuanian authorities have decided not to ask for an exemption, as this would be in favor of the aggressor Russia.
The Lithuanians informed the Russians last week that they would no longer load the sanctioned goods, although what had been stacked and the link to Lithuania was already moving could still travel.
The European Commission first publicly blocked Lithuanians, saying that Lithuanians did not act unilaterally, but applied general EU sanctions.
however, 15min To the best of our knowledge, last week the EU executive drafted a new interpretation called the English guidelines the term according to which the authorized goods could be transported through Lithuania if they are road between the main part of Russia and the Krasnodar region.
Some senior European Commission officials believe this could help de-escalate tensions. Brussels would present this not as an amendment to the decision, but as a clarification of the specific situation. This interpretation has not yet been formalized and made public.
The diplomatic service has received signals that Germans with games tend to agree with this scenario.
Representatives of the Government of the Republic of Lithuania presented their views so that damage could be done so that the European Commission would be notified of the Kremlin’s response to the Russian blackmail.
Some experts warn that applying the exemption to transit through Lithuania may restrict the country.
Even if the transit restrictions were severely restricted, the Königsberg area would not be completely isolated – many goods could be brought to the region by sea.