Expert: can Russia decide to hit Lithuania – let’s calculate what the consequences would be
With the mobilization of Russia, the transfer of NATO troops to Lithuania would begin
The so-called Suwalki Corridor, which would not only block NATO forces but also open the land route to the Kaliningrad region, has now become the subject of various discussions.
However, the chances that Russia may embark on an adventure and mobilize forces to try to block this corridor are out of reality. So does journalist and political commentator Ivan Jakovina.
“The first reason is that Russia does not have enough troops in the Suwalki corridor region. They are almost non-existent in Belarus and not so much deployed in the Kaliningrad region.
The second reason is that the rest of the Russian army has been “stuck” in Ukraine for a very long time. Therefore, in order to move this whole army from Ukraine to Belarus or Kaliningrad, it will certainly not be possible to make it go unnoticed.
If such a redeployment of troops begins, I think that the transfer of NATO forces to Lithuania will begin at the same time, and the entire NATO leadership will understand what is here.
Therefore, I do not believe that Russia can launch such a military operation. It has neither the capacity nor the capacity to do so, ”commentator I. Jakovina told the airline of the TV channel Ukraina 24.
After defeating the war, Russia would say goodbye to Kaliningrad forever
It is currently being considered whether Russia can use missiles to attack Lithuanian transport hubs, ports and railways in retaliation for the so-called Kaliningrad blockade. Especially since the country that started the war against Ukraine has the capacity to do so, Kyiv was recently fired with rockets.
“The bombing of Lithuanian roads would mean an attack on a NATO country, which would mean an attack on all NATO bloc states. This is both Turkey and the United States, Norway, etc. As a result, NATO’s response will be incomparably more powerful than Russia can do. Therefore, I would not like to believe that Russia is connected to such a step, “said I. Jakovina, a journalist and political commentator.
If military action were to begin anyway, there is a very high probability that it would turn into nuclear war. Russian strategists are aware of this, they should also assess the risk of losing this war.
“Russia needs the destruction of the Kaliningrad region, not the whole world. If the war was lost, the Russian Federation would lose the Kaliningrad region, which would go to Lithuania, Poland or Germany. Thus, the whole of Russia would say goodbye to the Kaliningrad region in time, ”said I. Jakovina and noted that the people of Kaliningrad would gladly join Germany or Lithuania themselves.
Do not believe that Russia’s connection to the military adventure
Assessing Russia’s military capabilities for aggression against Lithuania, the observer mentioned that he would have no doubt that Lithuania would receive the support of NATO partners in a flash. This is evidenced by NATO’s solidarity with Ukraine, which is not even a member of this military bloc.
“Besides, the Lithuanian army is not so small – 20 thousand. soldiers, another 19 thousand. reservists. In order to defeat the contents of the army, even if Lithuania participates in the support of NATO partners, it would take about 300 thousand. soldiers. Russia cannot send such a large number of troops to Ukraine, let’s talk about Lithuania.
In addition, Lithuania has the best state-of-the-art armaments and sufficiently effective Allied aviation support.
“I can’t even imagine what Russia can expect when starting such a war, because it would be a much more complicated situation than at the war against Ukraine,” Yakovina said.
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