Opinion | Why Erdogan should give the green light to Sweden and Finland’s NATO bid
This historyalong with the fact that Turkey has long been one Master of NATO enlargement, should make Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan more tolerant of Sweden’s and Finland’s attempts to join the alliance during this week’s NATO summit in Madrid. The Baltic nations are increasingly feeling the heat of a belligerent Russia, and NATO wants to use this summit as a demonstration of Western unity. But Erdogan has threatened to veto Nordic entry into the alliance because of Sweden’s support for the Kurdish movement in Syria.
This dead end is apparently about Sweden. But in reality, it is Erdogan’s way of airing complaints about a number of NATO allies, especially the United States. Sweden also has a large Kurdish diaspora and its general has been sympathetic to the Kurdish cause. The latest crisis stems from the Swedish government’s dependence on a Kurdish member of the Swedish Parliament, Amineh Kakabaveh, whose vote as an independent deputy was decisive in forming the government. In return for her vote, the Social Democrats promised Support for Syrian Kurds, who are affiliated with the United States but are considered terrorists by Turkey because of their affiliation with Turkey’s own Kurdish separatist movement, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Erdogan has called Sweden a “nest of terrorism”.
Turkey has legitimate security concerns at its borders. But part of the problem is that Ankara has slipped so far from European standards of civil liberties that its definitions of freedom of expression and terrorism are very different from those of European democracies. Some of Turkey’s demands, such as asking Sweden to prevent fundraising or recruitment to the PKKa designated terrorist organization in United States and that European Unionare justified.
Others are a reflection of Turkey’s more inward-looking moments and difficult for Europeans to meet. In public speeches, Erdogan has shown videos of Kurdish demonstrations across Europeand Turkish media close to the government have written stories about diaspora organizations in Stockholm that show pictures of the imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ă–calan or emblems from Kurdish groups. Erdogan is upset that Swedish television can feature interviews with Syrian Kurdish leaders linked to the PKK. For ordinary Swedes, there is nothing wrong with these events. For Ankara, they are direct acts of hostility towards Turkey.
There have been weeks of diplomacy between the two governments. But to make matters worse, this month a Kurdish support group in Sweden has projected images of Ocalan and PKK designations on public buildings in Stockholm, teases the Turkish president. Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs called it “a conscious and malicious campaign of influence with the clear aim of preventing Sweden’s accession to NATO”, in the hope of calming Ankara’s anger.
Erdogan will meet leaders of Finland and Sweden ahead of the Madrid summit, and it’s someone’s guess what the result will be. Ideally, Ankara should not be a spoiler at the moment showing off transatlantic unity in the face of Russian aggression. It should instead negotiate a reasonable agreement with Sweden and Finland that takes into account Turkey’s security problems but that respects Sweden’s and Finland’s standards of freedom of expression.
But Erdogan is impossible to guess. Turkey’s unpredictable leader may feel that he has scored his point and has received enough from Sweden to declare a domestic victory – such as a NATO statement condemning terrorism or the implementation of a new Swedish antiterrorism teams starting next month – or continue to block formal membership for Sweden and Finland.
But Erdogan should consider Turkey’s long-term interests and the state of its already fragile relations with NATO allies. Putting the green light on the Nordic march into the alliance would strengthen Turkey’s position in NATO at a critical time of geopolitical transformation. Ankara has already played its hand skilfully to support Ukraine and engage in a careful balancing act with Russia. Blocking Sweden would provoke the debate about Turkey’s place in the transatlantic community and further alienate Europeans.
A master of geopolitical balancing, Erdogan has already shown Turkey’s dissatisfaction with its support for Syrian Kurds. He should now use the green light as leverage for better relations with transatlantic allies, including the United States.