At 350 km/h from St. Gallen to Geneva: Amazing SBB investigation
The Federal Council has presented its long-term strategy for the railways. “Bahn 2050” primarily envisages expansions for S-Bahn and in agglomerations. A study by the SBB comes to the conclusion that the train can win above all with shorter travel times.
Stefan Ehrbar / chmedia
The faster the train, the more passengers: trains in Zurich-Altstetten.Image: Keystone
The Federal Council wants to improve rail services in the agglomerations and over short and medium distances. More S-Bahn trains and more stops for InterRegio trains in suburban stations should ensure that the market share of public transport increases. This is what the “Bahn 2050” strategy presented on Wednesday says.
Long-distance traffic on planned routes, on the other hand, is not the focus. Travel times are only to be shortened “selectively” – especially on routes on which the train cannot be trusted compared to the car. A study by the SBB that was carried out for “Bahn 2050” shows that there is hardly another measure that is as relevant for shifting traffic from road to rail as shorter travel times.
“Travel time has the greatest effect”
With faster trains, the share of rail in all kilometers traveled in traffic, the so-called modal split, can be increased. “Reductions in travel time have the greatest positive leverage effect,” write the authors. Even clock compressions or more direct connections did not achieve any effects. The influence of lower prices was not examined.
For the study, Deutsche Bahn was commissioned to show how its share of the modal split in passenger transport could be increased by 2050. In 2019, this was 17.4 percent. With the extensions of the already approved expansion step 2035 (AS 2035), which includes the Brütten tunnel between Zurich and Winterthur or the Zimmerberg base tunnel II, it should rise to 21 percent. To double it would have to climb to 34.8 percent.
Three high-speed lines
The remaining public transport is not included in these figures: The modal split of all public transport was around 21 percent in 2019 and is expected to increase to 24 percent with the AS 2035.
The SBB experts examined the effect of a high-speed network (HGV) with three lines that would reach speeds of up to 350 kilometers per hour. Lines were sketched along today’s IC 1 between Geneva Airport, Bern, Zurich and St. Gallen, a route between Basel, Aarau, Zurich and Winterthur and one between Biel, Bern, Lucerne and Zurich.
Almost 100,000 new rail passengers
According to the SBB, such routes could not be realized on the current railway infrastructure. In order to be able to reach high speeds over short distances in Switzerland, too, the technology would have to be thought through. “A Hyperloop system would be conceivable,” says the study.
SBB buys 286 new regional trains of the Flirt type
Such a truck network would boost demand. According to SBB calculations, the line between Geneva and St. Gallen would result in almost 100,000 additional rail passengers per day. The modal split of the railway would increase by two percentage points with this line alone. If the other two route branches were also implemented, the share would increase by 2.8 percentage points. Almost 870 million passenger kilometers by car could be saved.
Former SBB President Ulrich Gygi was already convinced of the usefulness of the routes. In 2010, he suggested halving the travel time to 28 minutes with a new high-speed line between Zurich and Bern. “Everyone would benefit from this, including the people of Geneva, who would be much faster in Zurich or St. Gallen,” he says to “Sonntag”.
Mobility does not decrease over time
But then as now, the Federal Council decided against such a network. He justifies this with the high investments required. Roughly estimated, high double-digit billions would have to be spent. Expansions of this kind have effects: they shift traffic from cars to rail – but at the same time they generate new traffic on a larger scale.
This can be explained with the concept of “constant mobility consumption over time”. Most people invest a fixed amount of time each day in mobility. On average, this is about 90 minutes in this country. This value is constant over the years.
Only 18 percent are switching from cars
When a rail line gets faster, people don’t shorten their travel times, but instead travel longer distances. THIS WILL PROMOTE DEPLOYMENT – after all, you can live even further away from your own home without losing additional time by commuting to work – and energy consumption is also increasing, which runs counter to the climate goals.
The federal planners therefore want to avoid new traffic as much as possible. In the case of the HGV network outlined, the ratio would be unfavorable: according to SBB calculations, only just under 18 percent of new rail passengers on the routes would switch from car to train. The remainder would be newly created demand.
Tunnel Zurich-Aarau is worthwhile
But there are cheaper projects with a better ratio. The S-Bahn development from Basel Mitte with new cross-city lines and increased frequency of the S-Bahn would result in over 14,000 new rail passengers per day in 2050. A through train station in Lucerne with corresponding travel time reductions and frequency increases would generate 24,000 new passengers. Both projects are to be implemented.
A 10-minute faster travel time between Zurich and Aarau, which would also benefit travelers on intercity trains between Zurich and Bern or Basel, would mean 13,600 new travelers every day. In addition to the high-speed rail routes, this project has the greatest impact on the modal split: it would shift by 0.3 percentage points. Although fewer new travelers are generated than in other projects, they are traveling on planned routes, which increases the impact.
Covenant without ambitions
The project has good chances of being implemented: A concept study has shown that a 30-kilometer tunnel between Zurich and Aarau would be possible – but it would also come at a price. Currently, 7.3 billion Swiss francs are estimated. A preliminary study is now to be initiated.
In addition, the federal government wants to bake small rolls instead of large concrete buildings: Here a new S-Bahn, there a new Interregio stop. The transport department of Federal Councilor Simonetta Sommaruga (SP) is not presenting an ambitious program. This is also reflected in the quantitative targets: Thanks to “Bahn 2050”, the modal split of public transport is to increase from 24 percent, which is to be achieved with the expansion step in 2035, by just another three percentage points to 27 percent in 2050.
Federal experts are aware of the modesty of some cases. “A shift on this scale is far from sufficient to ensure the climate target,” they write in the authoritative report. “In other words, this also means that more attractive offers from the railways and public transport alone cannot trigger the necessary shift.” (bzbasel.ch)
You might also be interested in:
Europe and Switzerland are threatened with gas shortages if Russia cuts its gas exports further. We show which areas in Switzerland would be most affected by gas shortages.
The figures on Swiss gas consumption have been common knowledge in Ukraine since the beginning of the war: 11 percent – that is the rather modest share of gas in Switzerland’s total energy consumption. 47 percent – this is the share of gas that comes from Russia in 2020. Russia is by far the most important supplier, even if Switzerland only gets its gas indirectly from the country.