What impact could the accession of Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova to the EU have (AFP analysis)
The European summit on Thursday and Friday will, unsurprisingly, give a green light to the candidacies of Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova for EU membership, but the impact of this prospect of expanding the bloc on EU functions, balance and EU geopolitical ambitions raises questions, writes Wednesday , France Presse.
The 27 member states reached a “full consensus” on the candidacies at a ministerial meeting ahead of the summit, which is expected to be approved unanimously on Thursday; an agreement unimaginable until recently, but which was imposed among the EU states with the war that Russia has been waging against Ukraine for almost four months.
“It will be a very important decision from a symbolic point of view, but it does not mean that Ukraine will join the EU in a year, I hope the Ukrainians do not have any illusions,” said a European diplomat.
Fears about possible repercussions on the security of the community bloc
Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova will have to carry out reforms in the fight against corruption and the independence of the judiciary, before the first evaluation of their candidacies, which will be carried out towards the end of the year, writes AFP, quoted by Agerpres.
According to political scientist Hendrik Vos of the Belgian University of Ghent, “it is very difficult to imagine an (EU) enlargement while Ukraine is at war. Before opening accession negotiations, there will have to be a form of conflict resolution. ”
Some analysts fear the repercussions on the security of the EU bloc, given that the conflict at its door could “last for years”, according to NATO warnings, and about 20% of Ukraine’s territory is currently under Russian control.
“If Ukraine joins the EU without being a member of NATO, then the risk of a future war between Russia and the EU would increase considerably,” warns Dutch historian Luuk van Middelaar. The former Warsaw Pact states joined NATO first and then the EU, and Finland and Sweden now want to become members of NATO precisely to benefit from the organization’s collective defense clause.
Acceptance of the candidacies of Ukraine and Moldova could offer a new accession to the countries of the Western Balkans.
According to the quoted sources, on the other hand, the acceptance of the candidacies of Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova could offer a new impetus, especially desired by Germany, to the accession of the Western Balkan countries, blocked for years in the EU antechamber or not even received candidate status.
Also, an enlargement, even in a longer time horizon of the European Union by two, four or six states “will have serious consequences for the functioning of the EU, with a risk of paralysis in the absence of institutional change”, in especially one that eliminates the rule of unanimity in the adoption of foreign policy decisions of a European Union that would like to assert its geopolitical role on the world stage, believes Luuk van Middelaar.
“It is clear that the Union is often silent because it has not been able to find a unanimous position,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday. a binding foreign policy decision should be taken for all Member States with only a qualified majority, ie 15 out of the 27 Member States and comprising at least 65% of the EU population.
A further enlargement of the EU to the east could also lead to “another balance of power” within the EU, ie it would become more difficult for countries such as France, Germany or Italy to impose their approaches at home within the EU bloc. . such as the environment or the rule of law. As Poland and Hungary show, such concerns can be seen very differently in Eastern and Western Europe, notes Hendrik Vos.
Editor: AA