Nikos Michailidis: “Greece is a useful ‘communication bag of boxing’ for Ankara”
– What is Turkey seeking with its duration and rhetoric of tension?
The leadership of the Turkish regime with this escalating rhetoric addresses different audiences and seeks to meet a number of goals in the field of communication. First, it wants to continue to remind the Greek political system and society that its claims are not only maintained but also multiplied. At the same time, it aims to mobilize those circles in Greece that have been propagating for years the new theory of urgency and hasty “settlements”, such as “we do not resolve our differences through dialogue now”, Turkey is strengthening and Turkish claims are increasing. These are shallow and dangerous approaches that serve the Turkish strategy. The Turkish leadership seeks to split the internal front in Greece and to bend its resistance.
Ankara keeps alive the theory of “gray zones” in Greek, Turkish and international public opinion. At the same time, it attempts to stigmatize Greece internationally as an internationally “irresponsible, ill-educated child”, a country that does not respect international treaties and law and that has “expansionist dispositions” and causes tensions. In other words, with this propaganda, Ankara is trying to present to its own public opinion but also internationally itself as a victim and Greece as a perpetrator, a complete reversal of reality, that is, to gain international support and legitimacy, blaming Athens and laundering . its own expansion using the term “bilateral Greek-Turkish differences”.
The Turkish regime sends a clear message that it maintains in full its unilateral, illegal claims, thus undermining the opposite prospect of appealing to The Hague. I also believe that through the escalation with Greece, Turkey is trying to serve another goal: to remove the light of international publicity and criticism from its imminent new introduction into the Kurdish territories of Syria and to trap it in the Greek-Turkish field that may become more international news. Greece is a useful “communication bag of boxing” for Ankara.
The Turkish regime sends a clear message that it maintains in full its unilateral, illegal claims, thus undermining the opposite prospect of appealing to The Hague.
Domestically, the cultivation of hatred for Greece legitimizes Ankara’s discount policy in the eyes of Turkish public opinion. In other words, these are not just communication tricks of internal pre-election consumption, these rhetoric produces a dangerous political result. Ankara’s propaganda must be dealt with intelligently by Greece with serious initiatives even inside Turkey.
– Where can Tayyip Erdogan’s disparaging remarks about the Greek Prime Minister lead?
They betray a colonial-type mentality of the Turkish leadership towards Greece. For years, Ankara has created a propaganda rhetoric that seeks to separate the “bad Greek politicians who are destroying their country in opposition to a greater Turkey.” Greece at this point seems to me to be a little weak in terms of communication and this needs to be corrected. The Turkish leaderships in their public rhetoric usually seek to separate the Greek leadership from society, thus trying to cause an internal rift in our country and the discrediting of Greek state institutions and leaderships. This is a classic method of propaganda. The Turkish services have come to the conclusion that the toxic policy and ideological polarization within Greece and the anti-institutional public attitudes in recent years are useful tools for undermining internal unity and Greece’s ability to resist Turkish expansion. Erdogan’s personal attacks on the Greek prime minister serve this purpose. At the same time, the use of pedestrian, mafia rhetoric by Turkish politicians impressively reveals some aspects of mainstream Turkish political culture. For us, this rhetoric is shocking, but for authoritarian Turkey it is almost self-evident. Only in further escalation can he have such unacceptable rhetoric that hides arrogance and aggression.
– Many point out that Turkey is holding the West hostage with its stance, citing the serious strategy of the position. Do you agree?
That was true until a few years ago. However, I believe that this is less true lately. Greece and Cyprus, with appropriate policies, can further reduce Turkey’s so-called “serious strategic importance” to the Western world and make Ankara almost irrelevant to Western security interests. Of course, Turkey’s policy after 2016 and the order of its relations with many Western players, as well as its rapprochement with Russia, China and Iran, also played an important role in this. In addition, the proposals in Kurdistan as well as the improvement of Israel’s relations with the Arab countries are indications of further reductions in the importance of Turkey in the long run.
I will just say it: Turkey’s distance from the West and the dimension of its relations with the key countries of the western system strengthen Greece. The theory of “pro-Western Turkey” is naive and not based on real, empirical data, it is a dangerous fantasy. This must be understood by everyone in Greece and we must stand out internationally.
The Cold War narrative about the so-called “irreplaceable Turkey” cultivated by the Turkish Foreign Ministry. and its propaganda mechanisms (think tanks, journalists, analysts, publishers, etc.) must be crucially and definitively undermined by any means. The times are favorable. Many important steps can be taken from Athens and Nicosia, but they can be done.
– Will we have a “warm” summer? What does this mean as the Russia-Ukraine war continues?
The summers in the eastern Mediterranean, especially after 2016, are always quite “warm”. But I do not think that Ankara will pull the rope too far to the point where it can break. As we are honest, the Turkish leaders, in addition to their public lions, are well aware that their country is not in a position of military confrontation with Greece for a number of reasons that are not present to analyze. This does not mean that they will not try to select a controlled micro-episode to play in the international media and update their claims. Let us not forget, however, that Ankara has a huge front open in Kurdistan, which considers it a matter of life and death, and this front is not going to close any time soon. Turkey will attempt distractions. However, it cannot fight on all fronts at the same time and even against a well-organized, NATO army, such as the Greek one. In addition, our country is being strengthened in various ways and this is something that the authorities in Ankara are watching with concern.
– What is Erdogan seeking with the pressure he exerts on NATO?
Turkey is trying to extract in various fields. First, it wants to break the arms embargo imposed on it by Western governments. Secondly, it seeks to undermine the networks of Turkish and Kurdish dissidents that have been set up in various European countries, stigmatizing them as allegedly terrorist. Third, it seeks to update the belief in Western capitals that it is a great force and a replacement for NATO. Fourth, to increase its advantage over Putin by blocking the accession of new members to Russia on the periphery of Russia, demanding ransom from him on the Syrian front. Let’s not forget that Ankara has planned and is trying to launch a colossal “population exchange” operation in the Middle East, trying to push the Kurds a few kilometers south of the Turkish-Syrian border and settle the other Syrian refugees now living in Turkey. It will not be easy and without consequences. Fifth, Turkey is trying to extend the West’s tolerance of its violent repressive policies against Kurds and others at home. The West is the only one criticizing and pushing Turkey for democratization.
Finally, because I believe that the accession of more countries to NATO from the Russian periphery further reduces the opposite geopolitical value of Asia Minor, I believe that Ankara does not want to lose this “monopoly” of geographical proximity to Russia that once made it . need for the West.