The first fall in GDP and the first default of Russia. Top economic news of the day
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is one of the worst economic crises in modern Russian history. The Russian service of the BBC talks about the main events of the day in the economy.
Sanctions in full swing
Against the backdrop of GDP growth in early April at the beginning of the year – by 3% (after growth of 1.3% in March and 4.1% at the beginning), the Ministry of Economic Development reported. The main attack of the department was called “unprecedented sanctions” and problems with logistics. This is just the beginning: by the end of 2022, GDP will fall, according to various forecasts, by 8-12%.
The fact that it is valid (despite the confirmation of powers in the reverse order) is not only the GDP figures. Today from Rosstat data became knownthat in the first case, the production of passenger cars in Russia fell by 85.4% (!) compared to the post-COVID case in 2021.
Since the beginning of March, the range of household chemicals and personal care products has been contained by almost a quarter (22.4%), calculated by Nielsen. So, wrote the BBC, there will be a lawsuit against Russia in the consumer sector: the deficit will not be at the level of categories of goods, but at the level of brands.
First default
Default Insurance Regulator (Credit Events Ownership Committee or CDS) repetitionthat Russia did not fulfill its obligations under the bonds, that is, it defaulted.
This is important because the committee decides: an “insurable event” has occurred (here, the default of Russia, which issued the bonds). If so, it means that it is time for “insurers” to take buyers of “insurance” for such a case of money (credit default swaps act as “insurance”, these are securities).
In this case, something tricky happens. Technical Moscow brought the currency to the bondholders (with difficulty – because of the take). But it’s too late. For the delay – the “grace period” – fines amounting to $1.9 million were received, which Russia did not pay off. And this is the reason for the recognition of default.
So far, this is just another sign of a “real”, large-scale default (when Russia will not be able to pay in foreign currency already for real obligations): $ 1.9 million is the amount, the “insurers” will cover it, and this particular episode will end.
Russia not welcome in OPEC+
Members of OPEC+ (organization of the oil exporting countries) are considering taking action against the delegation, informed The Wall Street Journal, citing its members. The logic is this: in 2020, OPEC + members agreed on how much oil each produces. Then the price of oil dropped a lot, and quotas were invented to make it rise.
Now Russia is already forced to cut production due to the delay, the WSJ retells the logic of OPEC + members. If it is accepted from the parties, the Russian quarter can be redistributed among other participants: they will produce more, and it will be a little easier for the EU to abandon Russian oil.
While it looks from, but does not meet a single scenario. By weight, the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia assured in an interview with the Financial Times that Russia lives in OPEC+. Reuters sources too murderthat the solution parameters remain the same.
Siloviki against Chubais
The ex-head of Rosnano has not been heard from since he left Russia – due to disagreement with the war, wrote Bloomberg. And today TASS, citing a source informed: gastric organs check Anatoly Chubais and his entourage for inflammation.
The source – judging by the wording, who spoke to the agency in a standard anonymous press release – did not elaborate. A few days ago, the same TASS, citing a source toldthat the security forces are “checking information about hidden accounts” of Chubais abroad.
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