Political long-term construction. Will Russia and Belarus finally create a Union State?
Has SG become more relevant after February 24
On this issue, the opinions of those interviewed by The Secret differed. On the one hand, sanctions pressure affects both countries, pushing them towards each other.
“A year later, in 2022, the Russian Federation and Belarus will switch to a new format of cooperation, which should solve the problems that they have posed for the economic economy,” says Inna Andronova, head of the Department of International Economic Relations at the Faculty of Economics of RUDN University.
Among the new tasks, according to the economist, is reducing the dependence of the economy on the products of unfriendly countries and reformatting international logistics. For example, due to the break in European relations, Belarus lost access to the sea through Latvian ports, thereby significantly reducing the share of exported goods, said Anna Fomicheva, co-founder of the DigitalVED digital platform.
Alexander Mikhailenko is also confident that the parties will make significant progress in their integration projects. In his opinion, about this frequency and duration of meetings between Putin and Lukashenko, “for which tasks related to the idea of building SG tasks are solved.”
Andrei Suzdaltsev recalls that the Belarusian side immediately took advantage of the increase and the expected increase in support.
“In connection with the change in perception, there is an acute current implementation of those support measures that are “for later” — declared their Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko to Russian counterpart Mikhail Mishustin on 14 March. The expert interprets this as a Jew delaying the implementation of the agreements.
“I suspect that not all programs will be harmonized by the deadline (the end of 2023. — Approx. “Secret”),” says Suzdaltsev. – Even if this happens, it is not a fact that they will be carried out. In 20 years of the significance of the designations, this is the third or fourth attempt at the implementation of the SG.
In his opinion, true integration is most likely impossible. “There is a political formula: the right to power in Belarus, the political scientist who knows how to solve its social problems in Moscow is a retarder. “Therefore, Lukashenka will not agree to this, this is a trump card of power.” Most likely, he concluded an alliance with the Kremlin, while delaying non-fulfillment (pulling out for fulfillment) unfavorable for this part of the deal, sums up Suzdaltsev.