Arkady Moshes, director of the research program on the Eastern Neighborhood of the EU and Russia of the Finnish International Institute of Relations, told Filin why the accession of our country is resisted by neighbors, the West and China.

– The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, speak of an increased risk of a repetition of missile strikes from the territory of Belarus. At the same time, among Ukrainian violations, there is an opinion that Lukashenka is trying to flirt with the West.

Words are heard almost about repeating the scenario of 1944, when Romania, due to the emergence of Germany, turned into its enemy. Which version do you think is more likely?

– I would not seriously consider the Romanian version. Because she was not only Romanian. It was both a Finnish version and a Bulgarian one. This was a tactic that was involved in coordination with all allies in the anti-Hitler coalition. Because it was beneficial for them to give the authorities the opportunity to turn the front.

But you do not proceed from the fact that Belarus is changing the front and attacking the Russian Federation? This is not serious.

I think that both interpretations have a right to participate. The military rely on what they are attached to. And political scientists – on the facts that they catch and interpret. But, from my point of view, Lukashenka will do what has been done so far – to prevent the participation of Belarusian troops in hostilities.

Because it can threaten with unpredictable consequences within the country. Up to the point that this army at some point can turn its weapons against him if it goes through the meat grinders that the Russian soldiers went through and went through.

Therefore, it is clear that he will delay this moment and prevent it in every possible way. He will not be able to prevent the restoration of Ukraine by shelling rockets from the territory of Belarus. He has no resources for this.

Now in this dispute, in my opinion, it is useless to predict. But it is better to be more alert and suspicious than relaxed. Due to the fact that it is supposed to find some points of contact with the West, which we saw in the meeting – a letter from Makei, some testimony from Lukashenka that the action was taking too long – they did not listen to anything.

The West sees Belarus neither as a mediator nor as a platform for negotiations. Despite the fact that some things appear, it was not discussed seriously.

Belarus is firmly in the same category of aggressor countries as Russia. To participate in the UN definition of 1974, according to the conditions of the presence of its territory belonging to the state, for the implementation of the aggression of Belarus against a third state is an act of aggression.

We can interpret as much as we want, but, unfortunately, in legal terms, we do not have many opportunities for interpretation.

– The Russian Meduza, citing sources in the Kremlin, writes that Moscow intends to annex not only the occupied Ukrainian territories, including the so-called “DNR” and “LNR”, but also Belarus.

Is such a scenario possible? And what will be the international status, if it still IS?

“Firstly, it doesn’t seem to me that it’s absolutely incredible, and it never seemed to be. I have been stating for years that the question of Belarus joining Russia – its annexation – is not worth it. Until 2020, I said and wrote that it is much easier to change the Russian constitution than to carry out an event to annex Belarus, and it happened.

Here’s what I’m starting from. At the moment, Putin has control over Belarus in his hands. Control over its territory, control in general over Lukashenka’s behavior. Compared to this formal accession of Belarus, there is little, except problems.

Due to the fact that there will be resistance, it is necessary to counteract the economy a lot. And the accession of Belarus in the political and strategic sense without accession does not give anything. It won’t cause any extra flow.

It has been known for years that, by and large, there is no flow of population on the topic of joining Belarus. It is difficult to explain this to the Russian population, to accuse Belarus of some kind of unfriendliness in the neighborhood with the Russians and the need to denazify it will also fail.

This is difficult for Russians and Belarusians. It costs a lot of money and a lot of achievements. And the effectiveness of you, in the end, is not clear what.

Due to the fact that Lukashenka, on behalf of Russia, quite reliably performs the conductor of state control in Belarus.

If we talk about hypothetical scenarios, which, in my opinion, cannot be. Belarus is an internationally recognized state with its formal sovereignty, its formal independence, recognized borders, established episodes of relations.

The annexation of such an event is an event several orders of magnitude more costly, more identified and costly than the inclusion of unrecognized formations like the “DPR” and “LPR” into Russia.

The disappearance of states from the maps of the world is very difficult in modern conditions. There was a capture of Kuwait, and we know how it ended. But for memory, in fact, this is how countries did not disappear from the world map. Yet now is not the period between the world wars.

This will cause discontent not only in the West, but also in China. By and large, this requires the full and consensual resistance of other countries of the post-Soviet space. Therefore, Belarus can feel more at ease on this planet than an entity like the “DPR” or South Ossetia.

But, of course, Azerbaijan will be very much, if not mostly, from the position of the Belarusian people. He is unlikely to be ready for resistance, for rejection and defense of his independence and national identity.

My views here are quite optimistic. Due to the fact that all these cases that I am leaving Belarus, I have not seen even in other cases a large number of cases in Belarus at the expense of being absorbed by Russia.