More money for Defense? “Belgium 10 years behind”
The war in Ukraine puts NATO back in the spotlight. Sweden and Finland want to join quickly and NATO member states are increasing their defense budgets. “For Belgium, this would mean an annual increase in the defense budget of 5 billion euros,” says public finance expert Herman Matthijs (Ghent University and VUB).
Since Russia attacked Ukraine on February 24 this yearthe world is changing fast. The Finland has been a neutral country since World War II, Sweden even since the Napoleonic wars of 1814, but both have now demanded join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). At the same time, the pressure increases on the NATO member states to increase military spending. Although Belgium is once again doing its best to escape it.
“At the NATO Summit in Wales in 2014, member states agreed that defense budgets were at least 2% of GDP (gross domestic product, what each country produces in goods and services) by 2024″, explains Professor Herman Matthijs, public expenditure specialist at Ghent University and the VUB. “It is 2022 and of the 30 Member States, only 8 countries meet the agreed standard : United States, United Kingdom, Greece, Poland, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. France, Norway and Romania are also at 2%. Belgium devotes 1.07% of its GDP to defense, only Spain and Luxembourg spend even less. »
For decades, the United States spends a lot on its defense, up to 3.57% of their GDP in 2021. Matthijs points out that there are also big differences within Europe. Thus, Greece devotes 3.59% of its GDP to military matters, while Luxembourg devotes only 0.54%. “It is easy to guess that these big differences will now give rise to major political discussions“, says Matthijs. “After the Russian invasion, countries that spend a lot will ask for higher contributions from countries that don’t respect their agreements. »
painful
The debate is also raging in Belgium. It is a little embarrassing that in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the De Croo government decided that defense spending should increase to 1.39% of GDP by 2025 and 1.54% by 2030. When Germany, which already devotes 1.5% to defence, decided to immediately raise this percentage to more than 2%.
Belgium spent 5.3 billion euros for defense last year pensions include. ” It’s not much “, says Matthijs. “Denmark, which has half the population of Belgium, spent 4.6 billion. Norway, which has a good 5 million inhabitants, spent 7.4 billion. The Netherlands, with 17.5 million inhabitants, even spent 12.3 billion, more than double that of Belgium”.
Prime Minister Alexander De Croo (Open VLD) proposes to increase the defense budget to 2% by 2035, “that is an additional annual expenditure of 5 billion euros at current prices”, he declared. Groen and Ecolo do not want to hear about it and pronounce a veto. Prime Minister De Croo is likely to be bored at the NATO summit in Madrid in June. Belgium is gradually becoming a “champion of diving under the bar of NATO”. Matthijs: “Even if Alexander De Croo’s proposals succeed, Belgium will be 10 years behind the agreed standard. And all this while NATO headquarters are in Haren and NATO’s central command center, the Shape, is located in Casteau, near Mons. »
Turkey
Troops from NATO member states are also telling: Turkey has 439,000 troops, by far the highest number in Europe. It leaves France, Germany and the United Kingdom far behind, with 207,500, 184,400 and 156,000 soldiers respectively. The United States has 1.3 million men, Belgium 22,700. “Turkey has the second largest troop strength in NATO after the United States,” says Matthijs, “and it is precisely President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who opposes Sweden and Finland joining quickly NATO. »
Finland and Sweden would strengthen NATO. Finland would provide 21,500 additional troops, Sweden 25,000. “They also spend a lot of money on defence,” says Matthijs. ” These last years, Finland has increased its defense budget to arm itself against Russia. It now stands at 1.9% of GDP, which is very close to the 2% that NATO member states must achieve. The Swedish have a long tradition of neutrality, but they have a fairly well-equipped army and also a strong defense industry, with the Bofers and Saab, for example. They have already spent 1.5% of their GDP on defense and have announced that it will be 2% by 2023″.
In total, NATO member states were tolerated just over 1,000 billion euros for defense in 2021, including 755 billion, or 70%, for the United States alone. EU member states spent a total of €203 billion on defence, less than 20% of the total. All NATO member states together contribute nearly 3.3 million troops, the United States with its 1.3 million troops accounts for 40% of this total, EU member states with 1.2 million soldiers provide 36%. Matthijs: “It is clear that EU Member States’ defense budgets are too small to play a significant role. Belgium and the EU dependent on the United States, and non-EU countries such as the UK and Turkey for their defense, both in terms of budget and staff. »