The negotiations between Ukraine and Russia became surprising events. Has a political solution failed as a result?

At least for the time being, a political solution to the war is off the table. Both sides, Ukraine and Russia, are convinced that they can achieve success on the battlefield and thereby improve their negotiating position. As long as this perspective still exists for both of them, there WILL be no substantive negotiations. Because the assumed situation has changed in Ukraine’s favour, it is no longer willing to negotiate a demilitarized, neutral status. Ukraine also continues to reject the recognition of Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea as part of Russia. The negotiating positions are more apart than at any time since the beginning of this war.

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Do you expect negotiations to resume soon?

Serious negotiations for a political solution are unlikely to resume in the next few months. But there could at least be a ceasefire by the fall. However, this does not have to go hand in hand with a negotiated solution. Although there had been an attempt at a political solution on paper in Donbass since 2014, the front lines and low-level struggles remained.

Ukraine wants to join the European Union (EU). Is a neutral status of the country then even possible?

If Ukraine were part of the EU, the solidarity clause of the Lisbon Treaty would apply to it: the EU would have to come to Ukraine’s military aid. But Ukraine’s full membership of the EU is certainly more than ten years away. However, despite EU membership, Ukraine can be given neutral status. With Austria, Ireland, Malta and Cyprus there are already neutral EU states.

Criticism of Russia’s “special operation” has been growing in Russian military circles. What do you expect if Russia doesn’t manage to completely capture the Donbass?

If the Russian army is not militarily capable of doing this, Putin will still sell the partial conquest as a success. The use of nuclear weapons to conquer the entire Donbass is largely ruled out. But it’s true that Russian circles are increasingly criticizing the army’s approach and the lack of success. The critical statements made by a former member of the Russian armed forces on state television are also significant. It could be likely that these are harbingers of a wave of purges in the leadership of the Russian armed forces. This debate about failures could serve to justify such a purge.

Does Putin’s chair wobble too?

At the moment I see no threat to Putin’s rule. But the failures could jeopardize the positions of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Gerasimov.

Will Russia attack other parts of Ukraine after Donbass?

If the offensive in Donbass and southern Ukraine is successful for Russia, I don’t expect any more offensives. Simply because it is no longer militarily capable of doing so. Russia will begin to hold the conquered territories and put itself in a defensive position. Then the time has come to negotiate a political solution. But these negotiations will be very, very difficult and protracted, and a negotiated settlement is not guaranteed. The best thing would still be a ceasefire, but the war could also continue to smolder, as it has in eastern Ukraine since 2014.

There have also been great successes on the south coast: Russia has already introduced the ruble in the southern Ukrainian city of Cherson. How is it going there?

There are obvious moves to annex the Kherson region, and the puppet government installed by Russia has been working hard to get Kherson to join Russia. That could change the course of the war, because then an attack by Ukraine to recapture Cherson would be an attack on Russian territory from the Russian perspective. That’s a very likely development that’s emerging right now.

Will Putin control the entire south coast up to Odessa?

Putin cut off Ukraine from the Sea of ​​Azov, from its ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk, making the Sea of ​​Azov a Russian sea. However, Russia will no longer have the strength to carry out a major offensive against Odessa and against Mikolayiv. Because the losses in soldiers and powerful equipment are great.

Does that mean the Ukrainian army has a chance to retake Crimea?

No, Russia will no longer give up the land bridge from Crimea to Donbass. Losing Crimea would be a successful disaster. If Ukraine, with Western support, threatened to take Crimea, then the use of a tactical nuclear weapon becomes increasingly likely. Because Russia will not accept that Russian territory, and from the Russian point of view that is Crimea, WILL BE attacked by Ukraine.

After the majority of the Ukrainian defenders from the Mariupol Steelworks surrendered, an exchange for Russian prisoners of war is now being discussed. Will Russia agree to this?

Some of the fighters from the steel mill could be replaced. But State Duma spokesman Volodin has demanded that members of the Azov battalion should not be exchanged, but should be tried by a military court. In Russia, these fighters are considered Nazis, and according to Russian propaganda, the “special operation” in Ukraine is about denazification. Now to put the leadership of the Azov battalion on trial as a symbol for National Socialist and extreme right-wing tendencies could be well exploited in Russia for propaganda purposes.

What threatens those affected?

The fighters must be prepared for long prison sentences. While there are also calls for the death penalty – in Russia there is only a moratorium on the death penalty, but it has not been abolished, it is still in the constitution – but I think it is very unlikely that the death penalty will be used.

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