Sweden’s NATO ambitions end up in a Kurdish quarrel
Just six months after she became Prime Minister, Sweden’s Magdalena Andersson has led her country to the brink of joining NATO after centuries of military neutrality.
But the historic bid has run into problems in an issue that few saw coming: Sweden’s role in the long dispute between future NATO ally Turkey and Kurdish militants.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has called Sweden a “total terrorist center, a nest of terrorism” and threatened to block its membership of the 30-member group if it does not break ties with the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a Syrian Kurdish militia; lifts an arms embargo on Turkey and extradits dozens of people whom Ankara accuses of terrorism.
His demands leave the left-wing government with difficult choices. “You have Kurdish voters in Sweden, you have many party activists with a Kurdish background, many people who sympathize with Kurds. This is a sensitive issue, for Sweden in general and the Social Democrats in particular. It is very difficult “, says Aron Lund, Middle East expert and research fellow at the American think tank The Century Foundation.
Andersson became prime minister last year thanks to just one vote, Amineh Kakabavehs, a left-wing extremist Kurdish MP. Kakabaveh gave her support only after writing one agreement with the Social Democrats which focused entirely on Kurdish support and criticism of Erdoğan and his treatment of Kurds.
“One can not help but look at the very peculiar agreement between the Swedish government and a single member of parliament. This deal had less to do with Swedish politics than Kurds in Syria, says Svante Cornell, head of the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.
Sweden was once the strongest European supporter of Turkey joining the EU. But Erdoğan’s pivot for authoritarianism and the fight against the jihadist group Isis rearranged foreign policy priorities in Stockholm and elsewhere.
Western support for the YPG, the Syrian militia that helped defeat ISIS in northeastern Syria, has embittered relations between Turkey and its NATO partners since 2014.
Turkey says the YPG poses a direct threat due to its close ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been rebelling against the Turkish state since 1984 at the cost of more than 40,000 lives. The United States and the European Union recognize the PKK as a terrorist organization, but have claimed that the YPG is a separate entity.
Most Turks see little daylight between the homegrown PKK and the Syrian militants. Turkey’s most important foreign policy issue is the army’s cross-border operations against Kurdish militants, according to an annual opinion poll by Kadir Has University. The biggest external threat is “international terrorism”, the survey showed.
The perception in Sweden is different.
Sweden’s Minister of Defense Peter Hultqvist has met with members of the YPG, while Foreign Minister Ann Linde tweeted a picture of herself in December with officials from Syria’s Democratic Council, the political wing of the YPG’s parent organization.
A large PKK flag was flown this weekend on a prominent street in Stockholm after an SDC meeting that the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs helped to organize.
Lund said that there had been significant lobbying against Swedish officials from interest groups. “Sweden is a fairly small country, quite far away from everything else. “Since the 1970s, there has been a feeling that we should be outspoken,” he said. “The statements you made to satisfy these activists may no longer seem free,” he added.
For the dissent that has made Sweden their home, the quarrel has been worrying. Ragip Zarakolu, a 73-year-old Nobel Peace Prize-nominated journalist and human rights activist, is concerned that Erdoğan has “made me a target” in the conflict with NATO. His name was reportedly on a list that Ankara left for Linde last week.
Turkey has previously requested the extradition of Zarakolu to face terrorism allegations from a speech, and he faces up to 15 years in prison if convicted. Swedish courts have rejected a request for extradition, and the European Court of Human Rights ruled in 2020 that Turkey had violated Zarakolus’ right to liberty and freedom of expression.
“I have little faith that I would get a fair trial [because] the Turkish legal system is in a state of crisis … under Erdoğan’s authoritarianism, ”said Zarakolu, who continues to write for Turkish newspapers about Turkey’s treatment of Kurds and other ethnic minorities.
Cornell said he could see Sweden give in to the YPG and the arms embargo but not extradition. – I definitely think it is a choice Swedish politicians must face. How important is it to support a group in northern Syria against speeding up the NATO process? That cost-benefit process changes when we talk, ”he added.
All 30 existing members of NATO must ratify the applications from both Sweden and Finland in order for them to join the alliance, which gives Turkey a veto. Turkish, Swedish and Finnish officials all say that the main problem lies in Stockholm, not Helsinki, which increases the pressure on Sweden to find compromises.
Any sign that Sweden is giving in would create the left, and already burn over the decision to abandon 200 years of military freedom of alliance to join NATO. “We are in a dependent relationship with an authoritarian regime like Erdoğan who persecutes its own people, imprison dissidents and wage war against neighboring countries,” said Nooshi Dadgostar, leader of the former Communist Left Party.
For Turkey, now is a good opportunity to pressure Sweden on the Kurds, Lund said. “Turkey sees an opportunity to ask for something because Sweden is asking Turkey for something. Turkey sees a chance to make its weight noticeable, he said. “It may be able to extract concessions from Sweden, and if the United States mediates a solution, try to get concessions from them as well.”