How the US and Russia think about Finland and Sweden joining NATO: NPR
Finland and Sweden have long maintained a neutral position between the West and Russia. But that changed after Moscow invaded Ukraine. Today, the leaders of the two Nordic nations were in the White House.
EMILY FENG, HOST:
Finland and Sweden have long maintained a careful balance, a neutral position between the West and Russia. But that changed after Moscow invaded Ukraine. Today, the leaders of these two Nordic nations were in the White House, where President Biden gave his full support behind their application to join NATO’s military alliance.
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PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: So let me be clear – new members joining NATO are not a threat to any nation. It has never been. NATO’s purpose is to defend itself against aggression. That is its purpose – to defend.
FENG: But that’s not how Moscow sees it. President Vladimir Putin has long accused NATO of aggressive expansion in Europe.
Mary Elise Sarotte is a historian who has documented how NATO has grown over the years. She wrote a book called “Not One Inch: America, Russia, And The Making Of Post-Cold War Stalemate.” Welcome, Mary.
MARY ELISE SAROTTE: Thank you for having me.
FENG: So I wanted to start at this key moment in NATO’s history, in 1990, when the reunification of Germany took place. Putin has said that NATO broke a promise it made that year not to expand to the east. He has used it to justify the invasion of Ukraine. What promise was actually made that year?
SAROTTE: I would not use the word promise. It was clear that the Germans wanted to unite, and as part of early speculative discussions about that, the US Secretary of State James Baker told Mikhail Gorbachev about the following – I paraphrase – how about you let your half of Germany go and we agree that NATO is not moving an inch east? In fact, Gorbachev cannot have that promise formalized or agreed upon. And so finally, September 1990, he makes another deal. He agrees to let Germany unite in exchange for economic incentives. But Putin is referring only to the earlier speculative talks, not to the treaty that his country signed and ratified at the end.
FENG: 1990, during these first talks, what was NATO’s footprint? How was it originally designed? And how has it changed or grown since then?
SAROTTE: There have been several rounds of expansion since 1990. So technically, the first expansion after the Cold War is to eastern Germany. And eventually it happens that Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic are invited and become members in 1999. And then there is another great background (ph) under which, among other things, the Baltic states enter the alliance.
So Putin was in charge at the time, and he strongly disapproved of it because, in his view, it meant NATO expanding into the former Soviet Union. So NATO has gone through several rounds of enlargement, and now there will be another with Sweden and Finland.
FENG: So Russia has never been a fan of NATO, but NATO has tried to deal with these tensions with Russia. And you write about this agreement in May 1997 to address these issues with Russia. Tell us about the significance of that agreement.
SAROTTE: There were times when you went back as far as the Soviet era when the last Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, said, how about that? How about we merge the Warsaw Pact and NATO? And then Boris Yeltsin also spoke with US President Bill Clinton, Bush’s successor, about the idea of Russia joining NATO. In fact, Yeltsin even said at one point, do you know what the real problem will be? – China; because then China will have a NATO border.
Now, the 1997 agreement that you referred to, the West signed something called the NATO-Russia Constitution in May 1997. And Putin is also instrumentalizing this story. It is based on a public statement made by Boris Yeltsin afterwards that the May 1997 agreement gave Russia a veto on NATO enlargement. It did not. But it is another piece of history that Putin can instrumentalize.
In short, Putin is picking up history. But Putin is not interested in historical accuracy. He is interested in creating emotional support for the brutalities he exposes Ukraine to.
FENG: Given how Putin has portrayed NATO for Russians, now that Finland and Sweden have applied to join NATO, what does it mean for stability in Europe? Can it provoke Russia, or does it contain Russia?
SAROTTE: The concern is obviously that we in the West hope that the accession of Sweden and Finland will not create further provocations for Putin. I think that Finnish President Sauli Niinisto did a very good thing when he called Putin to talk to him and communicate that Finland is joining NATO and why it is joining NATO. It has helped to lower the temperature. So I’m hopeful that this can happen without escalating tensions.
FENG: Mary Sarotte is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. Thank you so much for being with us.
SAROTTE: Thank you for your attention to these important issues.
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