‘Will Ajax become the Bayern of the Netherlands?’
Football in the top European competitions is increasing, research shows. The researchers analyzed nearly 88,000 games in 11 competitions between the 1993/94 and 2018/19 seasons. From this it appears that football shows prepared images as in a capitalist society: the rich get better and stronger, the less rich run after them with hope. As a result, those same teams win more matches. That goes with another, ominous sighting for the enthusiasts, where the public often receives all the praise, is waning more.
By Kevin Van Buuren
During the recent pandemic, one sound echoed through the silent stadiums: no fans, no football. Renowned ‘home teams’ such as Ajax, Feyenoord and Liverpool proclaimed their twelfth man as man of the match countless times. This would not have been possible without the audience. But also classified teams are eating titanic opponents against each at home advantage. Only a psychological effect can be a difference in quality. Home crowd makes football unpredictable. But if this power has less effect, will football still be something in twenty years’ time?
The vicious middle circle
The research team of Taha Yasseri and Victor Martins Maimone looked through a scoring and network model at almost 88,000 matches in Europe between the 1993/94 and 2018/19 seasons in Germany, England, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Scotland and Spain, among others. . Their conclusion: “The rich competitions are won more by successful teams. The strong teams win more, can win more in new reinforcements and thus gradually increase the disparity between teams in the same league.” There has also been a fear in the Netherlands for some time that Ajax, in view of the general capital in recent years, will become the Bayern Munich of the Eredivisie. the German record master won the league title for the tenth time in a row this year. Ajax is now at three, before it once held the scale four times in a row.
After ten championships in a row for Bayern, the German can be named.
After ten championships in a row for Bayern, the German can be named. Based on the football world according to the real world applications. The rich get richer and get involved in factors that bring them even more profit. widening the gap between rich and poor. Exceptions are also less common for this reason. Just like the exception that could use the home advantage. The researchers conclude that this advantage disappears as the inequality grows: “It is a transaction, inequality between growing and home advantage is consistently decreasing for all teams in the improved league.”
Far from home
The researchers based their results on two simple data: ‘Who winters, the home or away team?’ In addition, a scoring and network system gave them information about how well the two teams were doing at the time. Their mutual matches, the number of points they had in the competition so far and their home from away reputation determined the probability of a future win. Draws were not included in the survey results.
For a definition of home advantage, the team looked to a previous study by Richard Pollard on this phenomenon. Pollard bases this on the following factors: effect of the public; effect of a (long) journey; getting used to the field; the home whistler (Pollard’s research shows that home teams often gain advantage in decisions); territoriality; special techniques; psychological factors; and the interaction between two of more of these factors.
The results show that the home or away factor has less effect over the years. League matches are decided more based on status and lost. Big clubs win more games, from home or away. The researchers argue that globalization plays an important role here: teams are housing more foreign players. In addition, football is more accessible, fewer (real) fans visit matches. Travel is more comfortable and players have more international experience, who are less likely to be impressed by other conditions. What the research didn’t mention by name, but could also be a factor, is that player guidance and improvements are and are less spaced within leagues.
Clubs like Liverpool are known for their home crowd effect, but for how long?
Shortcomings of the study
The researchers themselves indicate that their research is not flawless. although the trend shows that successful teams are more successful, they have not explored the direct influence of money in removing the element of surprise. In any case, no use was made of all possible data that are registered for the collection of data. “These methods are not easy to use in historical contexts, where such data sets are not available for past competitions,” the statement said.
Another issue that is not clearly stated is the fact that this research is purely results-oriented. The experience of the matches is not included. That research the research states that it researches, because on predictability the fun factor of football. As an example we look at Ajax’s victories against SC Cambuur this year. The result against the low flyers is ‘six points for Ajax’. Predictable. But anyone who saw the matches, where Ajax loses two points and still wins in the absolute final phase, will have been on the edge of his or her seat. unpredictable.
The researchers still mention the size of the activities, although with 88,000 matches over eleven competitions, it is considerable. “Football is played in 200 countries, of which only our research is 5.5 percent,” she explains. Nevertheless, this research can be considered quite representative of the direction in European football. “Future research”, the team, “should also include continental tournaments such as the UEFA Champions League, and matches outside Europe. Finally, it should be tested whether money has an impact on direction in other sports and competitions. For example, competitions that set a salary cap on their teams, such as the NBA (the national men’s basketball league in the United States.”