Can Turkey block Sweden’s and Finland’s entry into NATO?
Issued on:
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has expressed strong views against Sweden’s and Finland’s entry into NATO. He has accused the two Nordic countries, in particular Sweden, of acting as a refuge for the “terrorists” in the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, Ankara’s bête noire. But will Turkey go all the way and block the accession process? FRANCE 24 takes a closer look.
Turkey has consistently taken different positions than other countries within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). After purchasing an anti-missile system from Russia in 2019, Ankara is once again alone in opposing Finnish and Swedish membership.
“How can we trust them? Sweden is a breeding ground for terrorist organizations (…) We will not support giving NATO membership”, said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday 16 May after the two Nordic countries had formally decided to apply for membership.
Officially, Ankara is outraged by the close ties that these two countries, especially Sweden, have with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), an armed political group. The PKK was formed in 1978 and has been designated a terrorist organization by Turkey and large sections of the international community, including the United States and the European Union.
“Sweden occupies a specific place in the Turkish diaspora. Since the 1980s, the country has received many political refugees, many of whom are suspected by Turkey of being PKK militants. This is a long-running dispute between Stockholm and Ankara,” said Élise Massicard, specialist in political sociology in contemporary Turkey and researcher at Sciences Po. “According to a widespread perception among Turkish nationalists, the reason why the PKK still exists, despite 40 years of war waged by extraordinary means, is because it has these ‘back bases’ outside Turkey,” Massicard added.
“Right of veto”
Ankara has made it clear that it wants to use Sweden’s and Finland’s applications as a tool to weaken support for Kurdish separatist groups. “We absolutely must stop supporting terrorist organizations (…). I am not saying this as a bargaining chip, but because that is what it means to be an ally,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Cavusoglu said on Sunday in Berlin, alongside one of the organization’s informal meetings.
In theory, Turkey has every right to block Sweden’s and Finland’s accession to NATO. According to Article 10 In its founding treaty, the two Scandinavian countries must convince all 30 members of the organization of the benefits of their application.
>> No longer neutral? War in Ukraine tests Finland’s stance on Russia
“The Alliance works according to the principle of consensus. Every member therefore has a right of veto. We saw this with Greece, which opposed the accession of northern Macedonia for several years” due to a dispute over the country’s name [Macedonia is also the name of a Greek region]said geopolitologist Olivier Kempf.
Although the red carpet seemed to have rolled out for Sweden and Finland, two solid democracies close to NATO via its Partnership for the Peace ProgramTurkey’s position creates confusion within the defense alliance.
“I am convinced that we will be able to find a common ground, a consensus on how to proceed in membership issues,” said Jens Stoltenberg, the organization’s secretary general, before adding that Turkey “has clearly shown its intention not to block” the process. .
“There will be so much political pressure on Turkey that it will not be able to block the accession of Finland and Sweden,” Kempf said.
Turkey is waiting for compensation
According to specialists, Ankara highlights above all Swedish support for the PKK to regain influence within the military alliance. “Turkey’s relationship with NATO has been very complicated for several years. It had come to the point of talking about its exclusion. For Turkey, it is about avoiding being marginalized,” Massicard said.
Turkey has taken this position in the hope of receiving compensation from its members, in particular the United States. In 2020, Washington imposed sanctions on the Turkish defense industry, following the latter’s purchase of the Russian anti-missile system S 400. Turkey was also excluded from the US F-35 stealth fighter program, for which “it had placed an order and paid a down payment of 1, $ 4 billion “, according to Courrier International. A gesture by Joe Biden on this issue would undoubtedly overcome Ankara’s reluctance.
>> Not what Putin wanted: How will Russia respond to NATO’s orders from Finland and Sweden?
Finally, it is very possible that Turkey will send a message to Russia, which sees the West’s expansion of NATO to the east as a betrayal. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Ankara has sought to maintain good relations with the two opposing countries on which its economy is heavily dependent. “The Turks and the Russians also share the Black Sea and common interests in Syria,” Kempf said. “Erdogan supports Ukraine but is careful not to go too far.”
This question serves as a good reminder that NATO, although revived by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is not immune to strategic differences. “Just because NATO agrees on the essentials does not necessarily mean that there is a broad consensus on everything,” Kempf concluded. “Ultimately, the underlying problems remain and have not disappeared with the war in Ukraine.”
This article has been translated from the original into French.