SCENARIO / Now a new Congress of Vienna, but leave the Market and the Soviets alone
While it is in progress the war in Ukraine, which has already exceeded two months in duration, globalized confusion or if you want the globalization of confusion now emerges in all its breadth. We must never forget that people die every day in Ukrainian cities for the renamed “special military operation”, as the Russians call it to justify an invasion, as usual in the days of the Soviet Union.
But few seem to really realize this tragedy and where it can lead. After all, the Russians to a Ukraine that does not exist, the claimed “their stuff”. In this case, the brutal “geopolitical” control that the Soviets made in Berlin in 1953, in Hungary in 1956, in Czechoslovakia in 1968 and then in Poland with the operation of General Wojciech Jaruzelski is not repeated.
Those who severely crushed Samuel P. Huntington’s book at the turn of the century, The clash of civilizations and the new world order, he must change his mind a little by listening to what the leader of Russia, Vladimir Putin, systematically says, and how the leaders of Western powers reply. Everything seems to boil down to a confrontation between autocracy and democracy, more precisely between the state born in the East and that conceived in the West.
But this is only the aspect of a much more complex problem that concerns precisely the “new world order”, because the one that came out with the peace of Paris, after the agreements of Teheran, Yalta and Poznan, has failed and is over. And build anotherfunctional to peace and development, in order not to experience a century of social, cultural and economic depression, which has already characterized twenty years.
In epochal passages the moment of confusion always comes and we must take note of it. But in the end there is someone who manages to find a way out, admitting mistakes and making reason prevail, the civilization and humanity to the horrendous game of force and war, knowing full well that one easily falls into “Thucydides trap”.
In a way, this war in Ukraine reminds us, more than the last post-war Ukraine (even if Stalin “ate” one state after another), the peace of Versailles of 1919, when it had to deal with the collapse of three empires: the Habsburg, the Ottoman and the Tsarist empires overwhelmed by the Marxist revolution in a Leninist key, that of the Soviets.
John Maynard Keynes, British for the Peace Treaty, resigned controversially and wrote a book that all delegates read or reread, The economic consequences of peace. Keynes was amazed that, faced with the collapse of the pre-war order, three “suckers”, the one “always in black redengote”, Georges Clemenceau, the “goat bard”, David Lloyd George, and the American “dreamer” Thomas Woodrow Wilson, they were more concerned with impoverishing and humiliating Germany than promoting a peace and development process. For these three “suckers” the order had remained intact. Keynes commented harshly: “They are not making peace, but they are preparing for World War II.” Winston Churchill said the same sentence.
Although the United States Congress never approved the Treaty of Versailles, the “dreamer” President Wilson promoted the “League of Nations” in Geneva in 1920 (the progenitor of the UN) which failed in the 1930s in the face of the civil war of Spain, Italy’s invasion of Ethiopia and other wars, in addition to the initiatives of Hitler, who had already written and published in 1925 the Mein Kampfwhich contain his program in detail and which of course they read.
It can be said, bitterly ironically, that of that League of Nations in Geneva there is only the Café de Paris in Rue Mont Blanc, where you can eat the best entrecôte in the world. At least that!
But in essence, Keynes demonstrated, twenty years in advance, that those who do not become aware of an order that is finished and do not try to replace it with another in step with the times, in a concrete and not ethereal way, faces unspeakable disasters. .
The thrills come when one does not realize that globalization, immediate sustainability, immediate ecological reconversion, Europe based only on the euro, WTO with wrong rules, the role of finance as a political pivot, ultra-free market, corporate dislocations, fiscal dumping, sensational inequalities, and so on and so forth, produced a disaster and the failure of the order that maintained mutual deterrence between opposing blocs, until the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the failure of state communism.
The least that should have been done was not a G7 or a G20 or a conference in Davos, but an international conference, a sort of Congress of Vienna as in 1815 after the Napoleonic “wave”, where to face the role of the great powers and new relations intercontinental.
None of this has happened, perhaps because a Waterloo applied to communism annoyed those who had been communists and those who had cultivated “complicated” alliances and collaborations, even with the secret services behind the scenes.
The paradox is that above all we trusted the Market (with a capital m) and the UN for the new order, which was taken into little consideration, because it was almost useless to change it. Basically, to use a little more irony, we behaved like a verse from a famous song by Enzo Jannacci: “Those who with a good sleep pass… even cancer”.
It was a horrendous signal, in the tragedy of the current war, that of the conversation between the UN secretary Antonio Guterres and the Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev, scarred by the outbreak of two missiles launched by the Russians in the center of the Ukrainian capital.
But after all, what does the UN count, with a Security Council of five members who can each veto any decision and are divided 3 to 2: USA, France, Great Britain on one side, China and Russia on the other ?
In the face of such a disorder, there are four steps to be addressed as soon as possible. First: to obtain in any way, even through threats (which no one wants or can actually risk taking), a “ceasefire” and a truce; second: to bring together a conference between the great powers that are emerging or in crisis; definition of a realistic coexistence, also based on strong armed deterrence; fourth: to study, correct and eliminate the errors of the last thirty years, while foreseeing the future of a new world order.
Faced with deadlines, which seem obligatory to us, diplomacy needs to return to its job: do not speak and act, do not let anything leak out and achieve the best possible.
PS Faced with such a dramatic situation, we allow ourselves an additional note dedicated to Italy. Forget the televised debates and rambling information. Let’s forget about the extinctions that confuse even some generals who participate in broadcasts: what is the distinction between defensive weapons? Is the cannon defensive or offensive? Is the machine gun right, center or left?
Finally, a suggestion to self-styled scholars, professors of all kinds, university principals of all tendencies: introduce the Resistance after attending the last April 25 and give the students these tasks for the holidays through a few questions: who was the head of the Clnai and then of the Cln, that is of the Resistance? Hoping that at least the acronyms are known, he also wonders who the deputies and the military commander were. Then he wondered what the box of the “fourth army”, the one that was on the French border, represented. Then tell about the Pacts of Rome of November 1944 and who participated in them. Even what the Allies gave us and told us.
A small look also at the relations between the Anpi and Ferruccio Parri and beyond.
It’s nice to avoid the boos at the Jewish Brigade and overcome the division with the whistles of alledementials. Even Palmiro Togliatti “the” thanked them better even on December 31, 1945. In short, a minimum of knowledge not to involve the war in Ukraine, which ultimately failed , of the Italian Communists, today in part even contested as “servants of NATO”.
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