The Slovenian elections dealt a new blow to far-right Europe
As the world held its breath after the outcome of Sunday’s French presidential election, another key vote took place elsewhere in the European Union. Voters in Slovenia elected a new government and there, as in France, the result was a sharp blow to the far right. Elections in Slovenia, a small country with only 2 million inhabitants, may seem insignificant on the geopolitical scene, but its importance should not be underestimated.
It is undeniable that the victory of the far right in France could prove disastrous for the EU and for the prospect of democracy around the world. But the results in Slovenia can ultimately tell us more about the future of ruthless authoritarian behavior of this century. Slovenian democratic institutions, as a very young democracy, do not have deep roots and generations of democratic idealism, which undoubtedly helped the Frenchman Emmanuel Macron to defend the challenge of the far-right candidate Marina Le Pen. On the contrary, in the last few years Slovenia has quietly become a battleground in the campaign of authoritarian leaders to expand its brand of illiberalism.
That is why it is all the more impressive – and perhaps even more consequential – that Prime Minister Janez Janša and his Slovenian Democratic Party and the SDS were severely defeated in the elections this weekend. the opposition sharply described it as a “referendum on democracy”. More than any of the details or proposals of almost twelve rival parties was the question of whether Slovenia would continue to move away from the liberal-democratic principles that guided it after independence in 1991.
Janša, an an unjustified supporter of former US President Donald Trump, has moved its country in an increasingly illiberal direction since taking office in 2020. Prior to that, he was twice Prime Minister, but two years ago he secured his job without elections, after former Prime Minister Marjan Šarec resigned. The vote this weekend was the first time voters had a chance to consider his increasingly controversial leadership.
No party won a majority on April 24, but the Freedom Movement – GS, according to Slovenian initials – performed much better than expected, with 34.3 percent of the vote and the SDS 23.8 percent. GS was formed only last year under the leadership of Robert Golob, a former director of the state energy company. During the campaign, she promised to focus on strengthening the rule of lawtransition to green energy and building a stronger democracy.
Sunday’s vote was enough to give the GS 40 of the 90 seats in parliament. Meanwhile, the Social Democratic Party, which has already announced a coalition with the GS, took seven. That is enough to get these parties a majority and secure a prime ministerial mandate. In addition, a number of smaller, left-leaning parties are expected to join the GS and the Social Democrats, giving the future left-wing government a strong hand.
Under Janša, Slovenia became a kind of training ground for the illiberal leader of Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who hoped to expand his brand of right-wing politics beyond the borders of his country. After winning the re-election a few weeks ago, Orban announced that his model would become “our common European future”. He partially pursued this goal strengthened its Slovenian ally, which helps finance Slovenia’s far-right media.
It is also possible, though far from guaranteed, that this election result signals, if not the end of the authoritarian shift, perhaps a slowdown in its launch or an introduction to its reversal.
Taking control of the media in Hungary has been key to the success of Orban, now the longest-serving prime minister in the EU, and his party, Fidesz. Hungary’s democratic freedoms have been steadily declining for years and the country is now assessed as the only one “Partially Free” non-partisan democracy control organization Freedom House.
Freedom House’s latest annual report describes 16 consecutive years of declining global freedom, with 60 countries losing ground last year and only 25 improving, bringing the world’s share of the world’s “non-free” population to its highest level since 1997. According to the report, “only two out of ten people live in free countries, ”when authoritarians around the world join forces“ to consolidate power and accelerate their attacks on democracy and human rights ”.
The double defeats of illiberal parties at the weekend, both in France and Slovenia, are the reason for at least a hint of optimism. They hint that something will finally start to change. But what?
One possibility is that the Russian invasion of Ukraine helped strengthen Slovenia’s democratic forces.
It is also possible, though far from guaranteed, that this election result signals, if not the end of the authoritarian shift, perhaps a slowdown in its launch or an introduction to its reversal.
The Janša government has certainly made its mark in Slovenia, which last year “experienced the biggest one-year drop” in democratic standards among transition democracies, they say. Freedom House “Nations in Transit” report., issued in April. But – and this is crucial – the report also found that “despite illiberal tendencies [Jansa’s] government, Slovenia remains a strong democracy.
Precisely because Janša did not break democracy despite attacks on the media and the manipulation of state institutions, the opposition succeeded. One lesson from this experience, then, is that it is crucial to the decisive challenge of undemocratic leaders, while democratic institutions, including the free press, are still in place.
Probably, Ukraine’s struggle to preserve its young democracy served as a reminder to Slovenian voters of the importance of protecting their own hard-won freedoms. months, Janša’s SDS led the elections. The freedom movement surpassed him with a parabolic rise only a few weeks ago, as Ukraine’s plight prevailed in the news. Of course, Janša strongly sided with Ukraine, but the opposition was nevertheless able to quietly influence the Ukrainian crisis by persistently warning voters that their prime minister was undermining democracy.
It is obviously too early to know whether the elections this weekend in France and especially in Slovenia indicate that the global rise of authoritarianism has finally reached its peak. But under relentless pressure from authoritarian and undemocratic leaders – from the bloodied streets of Ukraine to the shattered hopes of Myanmar to the constant lies of pro-Trump politicians in the United States– The results of two simultaneous European elections give at least a hint of optimism.
Frida Ghitis is a columnist on world affairs and a regular contributor to CNN and The Washington Post. Her WPR column appears every Thursday. Follow her on Twitter at @fridaghitis.